Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA.AS)

71.7 €

+0.56 (+0.79%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 344.12 | 71.7 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,256	9,276	8,530	9,587	10,846	11,325.87	11,826.98	12,350.26	12,896.69	13,467.29
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	907	1,259	1,377	1,530	1,076	1,481.30	1,546.84	1,615.28	1,686.75	1,761.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	668	899	1,016	1,179	708	1,079.25	1,127	1,176.86	1,228.93	1,283.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	239	360	361	351	368	402.05	419.84	438.42	457.82	478.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	8,248	1,401	1,856	1,210	1,786	3,512.38	3,667.78	3,830.06	3,999.52	4,176.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,152	2,156.65	1,983.21	2,228.96	2,521.67	2,633.24	2,749.75	2,871.41	2,998.45	3,131.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,139	1,139	1,159	1,650	1,843	1,639.42	1,711.96	1,787.70	1,866.80	1,949.39
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,843	1,883	2,032	2,376	2,206	2,472.57	2,581.97	2,696.20	2,815.50	2,940.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-160	-214	-258	-288	-292	-288.96	-301.74	-315.09	-329.03	-343.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 71.7
Beta	1.035
Diluted Shares Outstanding	185.67
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	41.53
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.041
Total Debt	5,875
Total Equity	13,312.82
Total Capital	19,187.82
Debt Weighting	30.62
Equity Weighting	69.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,256	9,276	8,530	9,587	10,846	11,325.87	11,826.98	12,350.26	12,896.69	13,467.29
EBITDA	907	1,259	1,377	1,530	1,076	1,481.30	1,546.84	1,615.28	1,686.75	1,761.38
EBIT	668	899	1,016	1,179	708	1,079.25	1,127	1,176.86	1,228.93	1,283.30
Tax Rate	-1,064.75%	31.34%	31.45%	24.98%	41.53%	-187.09%	-187.09%	-187.09%	-187.09%	-187.09%
EBIAT	7,780.51	617.28	696.50	884.52	413.98	3,098.42	3,235.51	3,378.66	3,528.15	3,684.25
Depreciation	239	360	361	351	368	402.05	419.84	438.42	457.82	478.07
Accounts Receivable	-	-4.65	173.44	-245.75	-292.71	-111.57	-116.51	-121.66	-127.04	-132.66
Inventories	-	0	-20	-491	-193	203.58	-72.54	-75.74	-79.10	-82.60
Accounts Payable	-	40	149	344	-170	266.57	109.40	114.24	119.29	124.57
Capital Expenditure	-160	-214	-258	-288	-292	-288.96	-301.74	-315.09	-329.03	-343.59
UFCF	7,859.51	798.63	1,101.94	554.77	-165.73	3,570.10	3,273.97	3,418.82	3,570.08	3,728.04
WACC
PV UFCF						3,335.91	2,858.54	2,789.21	2,721.57	2,655.56
SUM PV UFCF										14,360.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.02
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,802.60
Terminal Value	75,749.04
Present Value of Terminal Value	53,957.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	68,318.36
Net Debt	4,425
Equity Value	63,893.36
Shares Outstanding	185.67
Equity Value Per Share	344.12