Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AltaGas Ltd. (ALA.TO)

$28.73

+0.25 (+0.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -498.74 | 28.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,256.705,4955,58710,57314,08719,483.8526,948.2737,272.3851,551.7471,301.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2.30725.801,1601,1331,4722,150.642,974.564,114.145,690.307,870.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -391.70287.807467111,033913.621,263.641,747.752,417.333,343.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3944384144224391,237.011,710.922,366.393,272.984,526.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 101.6057.10326353193.70267.91370.55512.51708.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,547.501,222.401,4441,4272,0914,395.016,078.778,407.6011,628.6316,083.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 515.90505.606367821,1461,879.642,599.743,595.724,973.276,878.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,488.201,324.901,5611,5441,9024,485.856,204.428,581.3911,868.9916,416.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,028.50-1,334.50-843-814-958-3,040.87-4,205.85-5,817.15-8,045.75-11,128.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.73
Beta 1.273
Diluted Shares Outstanding 283.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 44.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.312
Total Debt 10,172
Total Equity 8,139.21
Total Capital 18,311.21
Debt Weighting 55.55
Equity Weighting 44.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,256.705,4955,58710,57314,08719,483.8526,948.2737,272.3851,551.7471,301.64
EBITDA 2.30725.801,1601,1331,4722,150.642,974.564,114.145,690.307,870.31
EBIT -391.70287.807467111,033913.621,263.641,747.752,417.333,343.42
Tax Rate 39.31%-2.56%21.03%36.55%44.27%27.72%27.72%27.72%27.72%27.72%
EBIAT -237.73295.17589.12451.15575.65660.37913.361,263.271,747.252,416.63
Depreciation 3944384144224391,237.011,710.922,366.393,272.984,526.88
Accounts Receivable -325.10-221.6017-664-2,304.01-1,683.76-2,328.83-3,221.02-4,455.02
Inventories -10.30-130.40-146-364-733.64-720.10-995.98-1,377.55-1,905.30
Accounts Payable --163.30236.10-173582,583.851,718.572,376.973,287.604,547.11
Capital Expenditure -1,028.50-1,334.50-843-814-958-3,040.87-4,205.85-5,817.15-8,045.75-11,128.14
UFCF -872.23-429.2344.22-86.85-613.35-1,597.28-2,266.87-3,135.33-4,336.50-5,997.85
WACC
PV UFCF -1,508.01-2,020.56-2,638.45-3,445.30-4,498.89
SUM PV UFCF -14,111.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,117.81
Terminal Value -156,066.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -117,063.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -131,174.23
Net Debt 10,119
Equity Value -141,293.23
Shares Outstanding 283.30
Equity Value Per Share -498.74