Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gascogne SA (ALBI.PA)

3.51 €

-0.15 (-4.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.62 | 3.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 406.42401.99389.87358.84398.85397.94397.03396.12395.22394.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 22.7722.1427.3527.8933.4027.2827.2227.1527.0927.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11.089.6013.3612.3617.341312.9712.9412.9112.88
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11.6912.5513.9915.5416.0614.2814.2514.2214.1814.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 23.6011.5916.6638.2629.7124.7324.6824.6224.5624.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 87.9197.92103.69106.1098.97101.05100.82100.59100.36100.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 54.9057.7951.9551.6059.8656.1956.0655.9355.8055.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.32-23.97-30.51-15.68-25.23-23.08-23.02-22.97-22.92-22.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.51
Beta 0.564
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.510
Total Debt 127.46
Total Equity 377.28
Total Capital 504.73
Debt Weighting 25.25
Equity Weighting 74.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 406.42401.99389.87358.84398.85397.94397.03396.12395.22394.32
EBITDA 22.7722.1427.3527.8933.4027.2827.2227.1527.0927.03
EBIT 11.089.6013.3612.3617.341312.9712.9412.9112.88
Tax Rate 5.25%-45.41%0.11%2.16%6.93%-6.19%-6.19%-6.19%-6.19%-6.19%
EBIAT 10.5013.9613.3512.0916.1313.8013.7713.7413.7113.68
Depreciation 11.6912.5513.9915.5416.0614.2814.2514.2214.1814.15
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --10.01-5.77-2.417.13-2.080.230.230.230.23
Accounts Payable -2.89-5.84-0.358.26-3.68-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.13
Capital Expenditure -18.32-23.97-30.51-15.68-25.23-23.08-23.02-22.97-22.92-22.87
UFCF 3.87-4.60-14.789.1922.36-0.755.105.095.085.06
WACC
PV UFCF -0.714.644.424.214.01
SUM PV UFCF 16.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5.16
Terminal Value 186.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 147.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 164.28
Net Debt 97.75
Equity Value 66.53
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share 0.62