Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arcure S.A. (ALCUR.PA)
3.2 €
+0.04 (+1.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5.09 | 7.98 | 8.30 | 8.59 | 10.43 | 12.67 | 15.38 | 18.67 | 22.67 | 27.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 0.36 | 0.19 | -1.08 | -1.01 | 0.07 | -0.37 | -0.45 | -0.55 | -0.66 | -0.81 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -0.39 | -0.57 | -1.90 | -3.75 | -2.14 | -2.58 | -3.13 | -3.80 | -4.61 | -5.60 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 2.73 | 2.22 | 2.21 | 2.68 | 3.25 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.11 | 0.64 | 6.84 | 5.47 | 1.81 | 4.90 | 5.94 | 7.22 | 8.76 | 10.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.62 | 1.06 | 1.13 | 1.32 | 1.55 | 1.76 | 2.14 | 2.59 | 3.15 | 3.82 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.45 | 2.28 | 2.37 | 2.45 | 2.98 | 3.62 | 4.39 | 5.33 | 6.47 | 7.85 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.85 | -0.94 | -2.72 | -1.89 | -2.13 | -2.63 | -3.19 | -3.87 | -4.70 | -5.70 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.2 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.544 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.67% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.100 |
| Total Debt | 5.34 |
| Total Equity | 343.96 |
| Total Capital | 349.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.53 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.47 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5.09 | 7.98 | 8.30 | 8.59 | 10.43 | 12.67 | 15.38 | 18.67 | 22.67 | 27.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 0.36 | 0.19 | -1.08 | -1.01 | 0.07 | -0.37 | -0.45 | -0.55 | -0.66 | -0.81 |
| EBIT | -0.39 | -0.57 | -1.90 | -3.75 | -2.14 | -2.58 | -3.13 | -3.80 | -4.61 | -5.60 |
| Tax Rate | 84.20% | 85.33% | 22.94% | -13.51% | 0.17% | 35.83% | 35.83% | 35.83% | 35.83% | 35.83% |
| EBIAT | -0.06 | -0.08 | -1.46 | -4.25 | -2.14 | -1.65 | -2.01 | -2.44 | -2.96 | -3.59 |
| Depreciation | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 2.73 | 2.22 | 2.21 | 2.68 | 3.25 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -0.44 | -0.06 | -0.19 | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.38 | -0.46 | -0.56 | -0.67 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.82 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 1.14 | 1.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.85 | -0.94 | -2.72 | -1.89 | -2.13 | -2.63 | -3.19 | -3.87 | -4.70 | -5.70 |
| UFCF | -0.16 | 0.12 | -3.34 | -3.52 | -1.75 | -1.64 | -2.12 | -2.57 | -3.12 | -3.79 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1.55 | -1.89 | -2.16 | -2.47 | -2.83 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -10.90 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3.87 |
| Terminal Value | -96 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -71.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -82.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3.53 |
| Equity Value | -86.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.80 |