Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Emova Group SA (ALEMV.PA)
1.33 €
-0.02 (-1.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 20.16 | 22.19 | 25.82 | 23.30 | 29.75 | 33.05 | 36.71 | 40.78 | 45.30 | 50.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 0.28 | 1.88 | 1.16 | 2.46 | 3.14 | 2.34 | 2.60 | 2.89 | 3.21 | 3.57 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 0.09 | 1.34 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.19 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 2.03 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 1.69 | 1.88 | 2.09 | 2.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.15 | 0.49 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.70 | 0.54 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.56 | 7.04 | 9.18 | 6.78 | 5.99 | 8.87 | 9.86 | 10.95 | 12.16 | 13.51 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.08 | -2.23 | -4 | -1.83 | -1.60 | -2.92 | -3.24 | -3.60 | -4 | -4.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.33 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.194 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6.34 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 66.94 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.78% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.182 |
| Total Debt | 16.68 |
| Total Equity | 8.43 |
| Total Capital | 25.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 66.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 33.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 20.16 | 22.19 | 25.82 | 23.30 | 29.75 | 33.05 | 36.71 | 40.78 | 45.30 | 50.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 0.28 | 1.88 | 1.16 | 2.46 | 3.14 | 2.34 | 2.60 | 2.89 | 3.21 | 3.57 |
| EBIT | 0.09 | 1.34 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Tax Rate | 218.75% | -55.54% | 86.03% | 152.84% | 66.94% | 93.80% | 93.80% | 93.80% | 93.80% | 93.80% |
| EBIAT | -0.11 | 2.08 | 0.08 | -0.22 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Depreciation | 0.19 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 2.03 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 1.69 | 1.88 | 2.09 | 2.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.29 | 0.16 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.48 | 2.14 | -2.40 | -0.79 | 2.88 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 1.35 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.08 | -2.23 | -4 | -1.83 | -1.60 | -2.92 | -3.24 | -3.60 | -4 | -4.44 |
| UFCF | -1 | 3.81 | -1.24 | -2.47 | 0.08 | 1.70 | -0.57 | -0.63 | -0.70 | -0.78 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1.62 | -0.52 | -0.55 | -0.58 | -0.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -0.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -0.80 |
| Terminal Value | -27.04 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -21.24 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -21.88 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 16.46 |
| Equity Value | -38.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.34 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -6.05 |