Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fleury Michon SA (ALFLE.PA)

19.2 €

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.40 | 19.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 716.95725.27747.62735.45705.63703.09700.56698.04695.53693.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 49.4351.2217.9748.3047.2241.6541.5041.3541.2041.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15.8220.97-30.65-21.7111.35-0.49-0.49-0.48-0.48-0.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.6130.2548.6370.0235.8742.1441.9941.8441.6941.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 139.52139.66124.01155.35157.94138.95138.45137.95137.45136.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 65.3466.6368.2972.5367.2765.8565.6265.3865.1564.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 79.0778.5692.2085.9198.6584.1783.8683.5683.2682.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21.76-31.82-38.49-23.81-20.57-26.33-26.23-26.14-26.04-25.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.2
Beta 0.380
Diluted Shares Outstanding 79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 63.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.313
Total Debt 226.85
Total Equity 1,533.45
Total Capital 1,760.30
Debt Weighting 12.89
Equity Weighting 87.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 716.95725.27747.62735.45705.63703.09700.56698.04695.53693.02
EBITDA 49.4351.2217.9748.3047.2241.6541.5041.3541.2041.06
EBIT 15.8220.97-30.65-21.7111.35-0.49-0.49-0.48-0.48-0.48
Tax Rate 35.15%21.13%15.26%-215.61%63.01%-16.21%-16.21%-16.21%-16.21%-16.21%
EBIAT 10.2616.54-25.97-68.534.20-0.57-0.56-0.56-0.56-0.56
Depreciation 33.6130.2548.6370.0235.8742.1441.9941.8441.6941.54
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --1.29-1.66-4.245.261.420.240.240.240.23
Accounts Payable --0.5213.65-6.3012.74-14.48-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30
Capital Expenditure -21.76-31.82-38.49-23.81-20.57-26.33-26.23-26.14-26.04-25.95
UFCF 22.1013.16-3.85-32.8637.512.1815.1215.0715.0214.96
WACC
PV UFCF 2.0813.7913.1312.4911.89
SUM PV UFCF 53.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.71
Free cash flow (t + 1) 15.26
Terminal Value 563.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 447.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 500.75
Net Debt 69.39
Equity Value 431.35
Shares Outstanding 79.87
Equity Value Per Share 5.40