Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Fleury Michon SA (ALFLE.PA)
19.2 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 716.95 | 725.27 | 747.62 | 735.45 | 705.63 | 703.09 | 700.56 | 698.04 | 695.53 | 693.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 49.43 | 51.22 | 17.97 | 48.30 | 47.22 | 41.65 | 41.50 | 41.35 | 41.20 | 41.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 15.82 | 20.97 | -30.65 | -21.71 | 11.35 | -0.49 | -0.49 | -0.48 | -0.48 | -0.48 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 33.61 | 30.25 | 48.63 | 70.02 | 35.87 | 42.14 | 41.99 | 41.84 | 41.69 | 41.54 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 139.52 | 139.66 | 124.01 | 155.35 | 157.94 | 138.95 | 138.45 | 137.95 | 137.45 | 136.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 65.34 | 66.63 | 68.29 | 72.53 | 67.27 | 65.85 | 65.62 | 65.38 | 65.15 | 64.91 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 79.07 | 78.56 | 92.20 | 85.91 | 98.65 | 84.17 | 83.86 | 83.56 | 83.26 | 82.96 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -21.76 | -31.82 | -38.49 | -23.81 | -20.57 | -26.33 | -26.23 | -26.14 | -26.04 | -25.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.2 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.380 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 79.87 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 63.01 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.313 |
| Total Debt | 226.85 |
| Total Equity | 1,533.45 |
| Total Capital | 1,760.30 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 716.95 | 725.27 | 747.62 | 735.45 | 705.63 | 703.09 | 700.56 | 698.04 | 695.53 | 693.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 49.43 | 51.22 | 17.97 | 48.30 | 47.22 | 41.65 | 41.50 | 41.35 | 41.20 | 41.06 |
| EBIT | 15.82 | 20.97 | -30.65 | -21.71 | 11.35 | -0.49 | -0.49 | -0.48 | -0.48 | -0.48 |
| Tax Rate | 35.15% | 21.13% | 15.26% | -215.61% | 63.01% | -16.21% | -16.21% | -16.21% | -16.21% | -16.21% |
| EBIAT | 10.26 | 16.54 | -25.97 | -68.53 | 4.20 | -0.57 | -0.56 | -0.56 | -0.56 | -0.56 |
| Depreciation | 33.61 | 30.25 | 48.63 | 70.02 | 35.87 | 42.14 | 41.99 | 41.84 | 41.69 | 41.54 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -1.29 | -1.66 | -4.24 | 5.26 | 1.42 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.52 | 13.65 | -6.30 | 12.74 | -14.48 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Capital Expenditure | -21.76 | -31.82 | -38.49 | -23.81 | -20.57 | -26.33 | -26.23 | -26.14 | -26.04 | -25.95 |
| UFCF | 22.10 | 13.16 | -3.85 | -32.86 | 37.51 | 2.18 | 15.12 | 15.07 | 15.02 | 14.96 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2.08 | 13.79 | 13.13 | 12.49 | 11.89 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 53.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.71 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15.26 |
| Terminal Value | 563.13 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 447.37 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 500.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 69.39 |
| Equity Value | 431.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 79.87 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 5.40 |