Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Herige (ALHRG.PA)

33.3 €

-0.20 (-0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.12 | 33.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 547.31570.72622.08600.41712.02762.54816.65874.59936.651,003.11
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 20.1320.7026.9034.4846.8736.5339.1241.9044.8748.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.89-6.5113.7815.5327.7112.8813.7914.7715.8216.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 15.2427.2113.1218.9519.1623.6525.3327.1329.0531.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 39.4931.8944.93131.3976.5180.308692.1098.64105.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 65.2364.5176.7579.2597.4595.23101.99109.23116.98125.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 75.0968.2980.1590.9399.57103.25110.57118.42126.82135.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.93-21.53-31.38-22.66-31.43-30.10-32.23-34.52-36.97-39.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 33.3
Beta 0.729
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.959
Total Debt 157.50
Total Equity 1,046.53
Total Capital 1,204.03
Debt Weighting 13.08
Equity Weighting 86.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 547.31570.72622.08600.41712.02762.54816.65874.59936.651,003.11
EBITDA 20.1320.7026.9034.4846.8736.5339.1241.9044.8748.06
EBIT 4.89-6.5113.7815.5327.7112.8813.7914.7715.8216.94
Tax Rate 85.66%-6.20%39.69%26.52%28.12%34.76%34.76%34.76%34.76%34.76%
EBIAT 0.70-6.928.3111.4119.928.4099.6410.3211.05
Depreciation 15.2427.2113.1218.9519.1623.6525.3327.1329.0531.11
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0.72-12.24-2.50-18.212.22-6.76-7.24-7.75-8.30
Accounts Payable --6.8011.8510.798.643.677.337.858.409
Capital Expenditure -14.93-21.54-31.38-22.66-31.43-30.10-32.23-34.52-36.97-39.59
UFCF 1.01-7.32-10.3415.99-1.917.852.672.853.063.27
WACC
PV UFCF 7.402.372.392.412.43
SUM PV UFCF 16.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.34
Terminal Value 81.05
Present Value of Terminal Value 60.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 77.22
Net Debt 80.99
Equity Value -3.78
Shares Outstanding 31.43
Equity Value Per Share -0.12