Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Herige (ALHRG.PA)
33.3 €
-0.20 (-0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 547.31 | 570.72 | 622.08 | 600.41 | 712.02 | 762.54 | 816.65 | 874.59 | 936.65 | 1,003.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 20.13 | 20.70 | 26.90 | 34.48 | 46.87 | 36.53 | 39.12 | 41.90 | 44.87 | 48.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4.89 | -6.51 | 13.78 | 15.53 | 27.71 | 12.88 | 13.79 | 14.77 | 15.82 | 16.94 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 15.24 | 27.21 | 13.12 | 18.95 | 19.16 | 23.65 | 25.33 | 27.13 | 29.05 | 31.11 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 39.49 | 31.89 | 44.93 | 131.39 | 76.51 | 80.30 | 86 | 92.10 | 98.64 | 105.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 65.23 | 64.51 | 76.75 | 79.25 | 97.45 | 95.23 | 101.99 | 109.23 | 116.98 | 125.28 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 75.09 | 68.29 | 80.15 | 90.93 | 99.57 | 103.25 | 110.57 | 118.42 | 126.82 | 135.82 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.93 | -21.53 | -31.38 | -22.66 | -31.43 | -30.10 | -32.23 | -34.52 | -36.97 | -39.59 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 33.3 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.729 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.12 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.58% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.959 |
| Total Debt | 157.50 |
| Total Equity | 1,046.53 |
| Total Capital | 1,204.03 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.08 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.92 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 547.31 | 570.72 | 622.08 | 600.41 | 712.02 | 762.54 | 816.65 | 874.59 | 936.65 | 1,003.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 20.13 | 20.70 | 26.90 | 34.48 | 46.87 | 36.53 | 39.12 | 41.90 | 44.87 | 48.06 |
| EBIT | 4.89 | -6.51 | 13.78 | 15.53 | 27.71 | 12.88 | 13.79 | 14.77 | 15.82 | 16.94 |
| Tax Rate | 85.66% | -6.20% | 39.69% | 26.52% | 28.12% | 34.76% | 34.76% | 34.76% | 34.76% | 34.76% |
| EBIAT | 0.70 | -6.92 | 8.31 | 11.41 | 19.92 | 8.40 | 9 | 9.64 | 10.32 | 11.05 |
| Depreciation | 15.24 | 27.21 | 13.12 | 18.95 | 19.16 | 23.65 | 25.33 | 27.13 | 29.05 | 31.11 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 0.72 | -12.24 | -2.50 | -18.21 | 2.22 | -6.76 | -7.24 | -7.75 | -8.30 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6.80 | 11.85 | 10.79 | 8.64 | 3.67 | 7.33 | 7.85 | 8.40 | 9 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.93 | -21.54 | -31.38 | -22.66 | -31.43 | -30.10 | -32.23 | -34.52 | -36.97 | -39.59 |
| UFCF | 1.01 | -7.32 | -10.34 | 15.99 | -1.91 | 7.85 | 2.67 | 2.85 | 3.06 | 3.27 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 7.40 | 2.37 | 2.39 | 2.41 | 2.43 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 16.99 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.12 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3.34 |
| Terminal Value | 81.05 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 60.22 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 77.22 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 80.99 |
| Equity Value | -3.78 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.12 |