Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alpha MOS SA (ALM.PA)

2.63 €

0.00 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.67 | 2.63 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 7.474.053.534.523.613.152.752.402.101.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -0.83-3.37-3.52-2.43-3.16-2.11-1.84-1.61-1.40-1.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 0.09-3.51-5.29-3.22-3.69-2.57-2.25-1.96-1.71-1.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -0.920.141.760.790.530.460.400.350.310.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 6.722.562.511.290.981.761.541.341.171.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.840.761.020.860.620.600.520.460.400.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.120.700.670.930.700.570.500.440.380.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.80-0.81-1.62-0.37-0.44-0.61-0.53-0.46-0.41-0.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.63
Beta -1.348
Diluted Shares Outstanding 10.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity -2.616
Total Debt 2.88
Total Equity 28.50
Total Capital 31.38
Debt Weighting 9.18
Equity Weighting 90.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 7.474.053.534.523.613.152.752.402.101.83
EBITDA -0.83-3.37-3.52-2.43-3.16-2.11-1.84-1.61-1.40-1.23
EBIT 0.09-3.51-5.29-3.22-3.69-2.57-2.25-1.96-1.71-1.50
Tax Rate 48.65%2.50%0.00%-0.03%-0.34%10.16%10.16%10.16%10.16%10.16%
EBIAT 0.05-3.43-5.29-3.22-3.70-2.31-2.02-1.76-1.54-1.34
Depreciation -0.920.141.760.790.530.460.400.350.310.27
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0.07-0.260.160.240.020.080.070.060.05
Accounts Payable --0.43-0.020.25-0.22-0.13-0.07-0.06-0.06-0.05
Capital Expenditure -0.80-0.81-1.62-0.37-0.44-0.61-0.53-0.46-0.41-0.35
UFCF -1.67-4.44-5.42-2.38-3.59-2.56-2.14-1.87-1.63-1.43
WACC
PV UFCF -2.61-2.23-1.98-1.76-1.57
SUM PV UFCF -10.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -1.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1.45
Terminal Value 37.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 40.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 30.82
Net Debt 1.90
Equity Value 28.92
Shares Outstanding 10.84
Equity Value Per Share 2.67