Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alpha MOS SA (ALM.PA)

2.63 €

0.00 (-%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 2.52 | 2.63 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	7.47	4.05	3.53	4.52	3.61	3.15	2.75	2.40	2.10	1.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-0.83	-3.37	-3.52	-2.43	-3.16	-2.11	-1.84	-1.61	-1.40	-1.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	0.09	-3.51	-5.29	-3.22	-3.69	-2.57	-2.25	-1.96	-1.71	-1.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-0.92	0.14	1.76	0.79	0.53	0.46	0.40	0.35	0.31	0.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	6.72	2.56	2.51	1.29	0.98	1.76	1.54	1.34	1.17	1.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	0.84	0.76	1.02	0.86	0.62	0.60	0.52	0.46	0.40	0.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1.12	0.70	0.67	0.93	0.70	0.57	0.50	0.44	0.38	0.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.80	-0.81	-1.62	-0.37	-0.44	-0.61	-0.53	-0.46	-0.41	-0.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.63
Beta	-1.348
Diluted Shares Outstanding	10.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-0.34
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	-2.840
Total Debt	2.88
Total Equity	28.50
Total Capital	31.38
Debt Weighting	9.18
Equity Weighting	90.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	7.47	4.05	3.53	4.52	3.61	3.15	2.75	2.40	2.10	1.83
EBITDA	-0.83	-3.37	-3.52	-2.43	-3.16	-2.11	-1.84	-1.61	-1.40	-1.23
EBIT	0.09	-3.51	-5.29	-3.22	-3.69	-2.57	-2.25	-1.96	-1.71	-1.50
Tax Rate	48.65%	2.50%	0.00%	-0.03%	-0.34%	10.16%	10.16%	10.16%	10.16%	10.16%
EBIAT	0.05	-3.43	-5.29	-3.22	-3.70	-2.31	-2.02	-1.76	-1.54	-1.34
Depreciation	-0.92	0.14	1.76	0.79	0.53	0.46	0.40	0.35	0.31	0.27
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	0.07	-0.26	0.16	0.24	0.02	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05
Accounts Payable	-	-0.43	-0.02	0.25	-0.22	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.06	-0.05
Capital Expenditure	-0.80	-0.81	-1.62	-0.37	-0.44	-0.61	-0.53	-0.46	-0.41	-0.35
UFCF	-1.67	-4.44	-5.42	-2.38	-3.59	-2.56	-2.14	-1.87	-1.63	-1.43
WACC
PV UFCF						-2.62	-2.24	-1.99	-1.78	-1.59
SUM PV UFCF										-10.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	-2.11
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-1.45
Terminal Value	35.40
Present Value of Terminal Value	39.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	29.17
Net Debt	1.90
Equity Value	27.27
Shares Outstanding	10.84
Equity Value Per Share	2.52