Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alpha MOS SA (ALM.PA)
2.63 €
0.00 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 7.47 | 4.05 | 3.53 | 4.52 | 3.61 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 2.40 | 2.10 | 1.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -0.83 | -3.37 | -3.52 | -2.43 | -3.16 | -2.11 | -1.84 | -1.61 | -1.40 | -1.23 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 0.09 | -3.51 | -5.29 | -3.22 | -3.69 | -2.57 | -2.25 | -1.96 | -1.71 | -1.50 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | -0.92 | 0.14 | 1.76 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.27 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Total Cash | 6.72 | 2.56 | 2.51 | 1.29 | 0.98 | 1.76 | 1.54 | 1.34 | 1.17 | 1.02 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 0.84 | 0.76 | 1.02 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.35 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1.12 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.33 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.80 | -0.81 | -1.62 | -0.37 | -0.44 | -0.61 | -0.53 | -0.46 | -0.41 | -0.35 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 2.63 |
---|---|
Beta | -1.348 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10.84 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -0.34 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.07% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | -2.840 |
Total Debt | 2.88 |
Total Equity | 28.50 |
Total Capital | 31.38 |
Debt Weighting | 9.18 |
Equity Weighting | 90.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 7.47 | 4.05 | 3.53 | 4.52 | 3.61 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 2.40 | 2.10 | 1.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -0.83 | -3.37 | -3.52 | -2.43 | -3.16 | -2.11 | -1.84 | -1.61 | -1.40 | -1.23 |
EBIT | 0.09 | -3.51 | -5.29 | -3.22 | -3.69 | -2.57 | -2.25 | -1.96 | -1.71 | -1.50 |
Tax Rate | 48.65% | 2.50% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.34% | 10.16% | 10.16% | 10.16% | 10.16% | 10.16% |
EBIAT | 0.05 | -3.43 | -5.29 | -3.22 | -3.70 | -2.31 | -2.02 | -1.76 | -1.54 | -1.34 |
Depreciation | -0.92 | 0.14 | 1.76 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.27 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | 0.07 | -0.26 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.25 | -0.22 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.05 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.80 | -0.81 | -1.62 | -0.37 | -0.44 | -0.61 | -0.53 | -0.46 | -0.41 | -0.35 |
UFCF | -1.67 | -4.44 | -5.42 | -2.38 | -3.59 | -2.56 | -2.14 | -1.87 | -1.63 | -1.43 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -2.62 | -2.24 | -1.99 | -1.78 | -1.59 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -10.22 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | -2.11 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.45 |
Terminal Value | 35.40 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 39.38 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 29.17 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1.90 |
Equity Value | 27.27 |
Shares Outstanding | 10.84 |
Equity Value Per Share | 2.52 |