Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Novacyt S.A. (ALNOV.PA)

0.49 €

-0.00 (-0.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 31,657.30 | 0.49 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	13.28	12.37	11.18	277.20	95.78	646.16	4,359.23	29,408.82	198,401.60	1,338,482.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-2.64	-2.30	-3.16	174.98	-1.71	-7.03	-47.44	-320.04	-2,159.12	-14,566.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-3.77	-3.63	-4.70	166.78	-9.59	-64.16	-432.82	-2,919.95	-19,698.93	-132,895.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1.12	1.32	1.55	8.20	7.88	57.12	385.38	2,599.90	17,539.81	118,329.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	3.87	1.03	1.55	91.77	101.76	246.40	1,662.31	11,214.49	75,656.64	510,404.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1.72	2.12	2.08	29.89	11.46	92.38	623.23	4,204.50	28,364.96	191,359.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1.55	2.50	1.79	5.23	1.36	66.10	445.94	3,008.47	20,296.14	136,924.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.87	-0.62	-0.29	-1.18	-4.10	-24.30	-163.91	-1,105.77	-7,459.92	-50,327.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 0.49
Beta	-2.222
Diluted Shares Outstanding	79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	1.03
After-tax Cost of Debt	12.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	-6.706
Total Debt	1.87
Total Equity	39.13
Total Capital	41
Debt Weighting	4.56
Equity Weighting	95.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	13.28	12.37	11.18	277.20	95.78	646.16	4,359.23	29,408.82	198,401.60	1,338,482.65
EBITDA	-2.64	-2.30	-3.16	174.98	-1.71	-7.03	-47.44	-320.04	-2,159.12	-14,566.12
EBIT	-3.77	-3.63	-4.70	166.78	-9.59	-64.16	-432.82	-2,919.95	-19,698.93	-132,895.49
Tax Rate	0.04%	-127.79%	-67.72%	19.83%	1.03%	-34.92%	-34.92%	-34.92%	-34.92%	-34.92%
EBIAT	-3.77	-8.26	-7.89	133.72	-9.49	-86.56	-583.98	-3,939.72	-26,578.63	-179,308.24
Depreciation	1.12	1.32	1.55	8.20	7.88	57.12	385.38	2,599.90	17,539.81	118,329.38
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-0.39	0.03	-27.80	18.43	-80.92	-530.85	-3,581.27	-24,160.45	-162,994.40
Accounts Payable	-	0.95	-0.71	3.44	-3.87	64.74	379.84	2,562.53	17,287.67	116,628.30
Capital Expenditure	-0.87	-0.62	-0.29	-1.18	-4.10	-24.30	-163.91	-1,105.77	-7,459.92	-50,327.07
UFCF	-3.51	-7	-7.31	116.37	8.85	-69.91	-513.51	-3,464.33	-23,371.53	-157,672.03
WACC
PV UFCF						-74.24	-578.94	-4,147.09	-29,706.56	-212,794.91
SUM PV UFCF										-247,301.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	-5.82
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-160,825.48
Terminal Value	2,056,591.75
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,775,585.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,528,284.08
Net Debt	-99.88
Equity Value	2,528,383.95
Shares Outstanding	79.87
Equity Value Per Share	31,657.30