Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alstom SA (ALO.PA)

27.28 €

+0.33 (+1.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 325.90 | 27.28 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,9518,0728,2018,78515,47118,810.7322,871.4027,808.6533,811.7041,110.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7731,0019357333591,662.432,021.292,457.632,988.163,633.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 612806642342-517980.481,192.141,449.491,762.392,142.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 161195293391876681.94829.151,008.141,225.771,490.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,2393,4422,1751,2508103,920.524,766.845,795.867,047.028,568.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,1461,5331,7432,9623,2744,120.945,010.536,092.167,407.279,006.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3461,7511,6533,2073,6474,471.525,436.796,610.438,037.429,772.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -283-275-274-265-428-605.34-736.01-894.89-1,088.07-1,322.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.28
Beta 1.058
Diluted Shares Outstanding 263.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -220.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.739
Total Debt 3,685
Total Equity 7,190.96
Total Capital 10,875.96
Debt Weighting 33.88
Equity Weighting 66.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,9518,0728,2018,78515,47118,810.7322,871.4027,808.6533,811.7041,110.64
EBITDA 7731,0019357333591,662.432,021.292,457.632,988.163,633.21
EBIT 612806642342-517980.481,192.141,449.491,762.392,142.84
Tax Rate -63.79%-112.81%0.43%-6.47%-220.99%-80.73%-80.73%-80.73%-80.73%-80.73%
EBIAT 1,002.411,715.27639.26364.11-1,659.541,772.012,154.532,619.633,185.133,872.71
Depreciation 161195293391876681.94829.151,008.141,225.771,490.37
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --387-210-1,219-312-846.94-889.59-1,081.62-1,315.11-1,599.01
Accounts Payable -405-981,554440824.52965.271,173.641,426.991,735.04
Capital Expenditure -283-275-274-265-428-605.34-736.01-894.89-1,088.07-1,322.95
UFCF 880.411,653.27350.26825.11-1,083.541,826.192,323.352,824.903,434.714,176.16
WACC
PV UFCF 1,720.872,063.102,363.802,708.323,103.06
SUM PV UFCF 11,959.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,259.68
Terminal Value 103,390.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 76,823.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 88,782.54
Net Debt 2,875
Equity Value 85,907.54
Shares Outstanding 263.60
Equity Value Per Share 325.90