Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alstom SA (ALO.PA)

22.62 €

+0.23 (+1.03%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 124.18 | 22.62 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	8,072	8,201	8,785	15,471	16,507	20,283.91	24,925	30,628	37,635.89	46,247.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	768	870	804	974	1,135	1,721.95	2,115.95	2,600.09	3,195.01	3,926.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	573	577	413	98	249	851.01	1,045.72	1,284.99	1,579.01	1,940.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	195	293	391	876	886	870.95	1,070.22	1,315.10	1,616	1,985.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	3,432	2,175	1,250	810	826	3,793.37	4,661.32	5,727.86	7,038.43	8,648.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	10	10.16	10.88	19.17	20.45	25.13	30.88	37.94	46.63	57.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,533	1,743	2,962	3,274	3,729	4,775.41	5,868.05	7,210.70	8,860.56	10,887.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,751	1,653	3,615	3,647	3,943	5,292.40	6,503.33	7,991.34	9,819.81	12,066.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-275	-274	-265	-428	-431	-614.27	-754.82	-927.53	-1,139.76	-1,400.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 22.62
Beta	1.041
Diluted Shares Outstanding	377.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-18.68
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.545
Total Debt	3,698
Total Equity	8,546.96
Total Capital	12,244.96
Debt Weighting	30.20
Equity Weighting	69.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	8,072	8,201	8,785	15,471	16,507	20,283.91	24,925	30,628	37,635.89	46,247.22
EBITDA	768	870	804	974	1,135	1,721.95	2,115.95	2,600.09	3,195.01	3,926.05
EBIT	573	577	413	98	249	851.01	1,045.72	1,284.99	1,579.01	1,940.30
Tax Rate	-112.81%	25.16%	27.16%	-14.92%	-18.68%	-18.82%	-18.82%	-18.82%	-18.82%	-18.82%
EBIAT	1,219.42	431.83	300.85	112.62	295.52	1,011.16	1,242.52	1,526.82	1,876.16	2,305.44
Depreciation	195	293	391	876	886	870.95	1,070.22	1,315.10	1,616	1,985.75
Accounts Receivable	-	-0.16	-0.72	-8.28	-1.28	-4.68	-5.75	-7.07	-8.68	-10.67
Inventories	-	-210	-1,219	-312	-455	-1,046.41	-1,092.64	-1,342.65	-1,649.86	-2,027.35
Accounts Payable	-	-98	1,962	32	296	1,349.40	1,210.93	1,488	1,828.47	2,246.84
Capital Expenditure	-275	-274	-265	-428	-431	-614.27	-754.82	-927.53	-1,139.76	-1,400.54
UFCF	1,139.42	142.67	1,169.13	272.34	590.23	1,566.14	1,670.46	2,052.68	2,522.34	3,099.47
WACC
PV UFCF						1,458.50	1,448.74	1,657.87	1,897.19	2,171.05
SUM PV UFCF										8,633.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.38
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,161.46
Terminal Value	58,763.18
Present Value of Terminal Value	41,161.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	49,794.58
Net Debt	2,872
Equity Value	46,922.58
Shares Outstanding	377.85
Equity Value Per Share	124.18