Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ober SA (ALOBR.PA)
8.1 €
+0.10 (+1.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 38.46 | 39.81 | 37.63 | 28.60 | 33.27 | 32.47 | 31.69 | 30.93 | 30.18 | 29.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3.39 | 3.20 | 2.98 | -2.12 | 0.98 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.54 | 2.17 | 2.19 | 8.50 | 0.15 | 3.12 | 3.05 | 2.97 | 2.90 | 2.83 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.86 | 1.03 | 0.79 | -10.62 | 0.83 | -1.80 | -1.76 | -1.72 | -1.68 | -1.63 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.72 | 2.69 | 2.14 | 11.17 | 5.20 | 4.82 | 4.70 | 4.59 | 4.48 | 4.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.66 | 16.08 | 16.58 | 14.65 | 15.98 | 14.91 | 14.56 | 14.21 | 13.86 | 13.53 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.03 | 3.47 | 2.97 | 3.43 | 3.75 | 3.44 | 3.36 | 3.27 | 3.20 | 3.12 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | -0.76 | -0.85 | -0.48 | -0.49 | -0.59 | -0.58 | -0.57 | -0.55 | -0.54 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.1 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.667 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 65.91 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.679 |
| Total Debt | 11.32 |
| Total Equity | 870.64 |
| Total Capital | 881.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 38.46 | 39.81 | 37.63 | 28.60 | 33.27 | 32.47 | 31.69 | 30.93 | 30.18 | 29.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3.39 | 3.20 | 2.98 | -2.12 | 0.98 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| EBIT | 2.54 | 2.17 | 2.19 | 8.50 | 0.15 | 3.12 | 3.05 | 2.97 | 2.90 | 2.83 |
| Tax Rate | 16.56% | 31.15% | 18.63% | 17.06% | 65.91% | 29.86% | 29.86% | 29.86% | 29.86% | 29.86% |
| EBIAT | 2.12 | 1.50 | 1.78 | 7.05 | 0.05 | 2.19 | 2.14 | 2.08 | 2.03 | 1.99 |
| Depreciation | 0.86 | 1.03 | 0.79 | -10.62 | 0.83 | -1.80 | -1.76 | -1.72 | -1.68 | -1.63 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 1.58 | -0.50 | 1.93 | -1.33 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.55 | -0.50 | 0.45 | 0.32 | -0.31 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -0.76 | -0.85 | -0.48 | -0.49 | -0.59 | -0.58 | -0.57 | -0.55 | -0.54 |
| UFCF | 2.97 | 1.78 | 0.72 | -1.66 | -0.62 | 0.55 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 0.74 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.61 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 0.07 |
| Terminal Value | 1.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1.09 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1.83 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 7.38 |
| Equity Value | -5.55 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.05 |