Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ober SA (ALOBR.PA)

7.75 €

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.05 | 7.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 38.4639.8137.6328.6033.2732.4731.6930.9330.1829.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.393.202.98-2.120.981.321.291.261.231.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.542.172.198.500.153.123.052.972.902.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.861.030.79-10.620.83-1.80-1.76-1.72-1.68-1.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2.722.692.1411.175.204.824.704.594.484.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.6616.0816.5814.6515.9814.9114.5614.2113.8613.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.033.472.973.433.753.443.363.273.203.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure --0.76-0.85-0.48-0.49-0.59-0.58-0.57-0.55-0.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.75
Beta 0.687
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 65.91
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.844
Total Debt 11.32
Total Equity 833.02
Total Capital 844.34
Debt Weighting 1.34
Equity Weighting 98.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 38.4639.8137.6328.6033.2732.4731.6930.9330.1829.46
EBITDA 3.393.202.98-2.120.981.321.291.261.231.20
EBIT 2.542.172.198.500.153.123.052.972.902.83
Tax Rate 16.56%31.15%18.63%17.06%65.91%29.86%29.86%29.86%29.86%29.86%
EBIAT 2.121.501.787.050.052.192.142.082.031.99
Depreciation 0.861.030.79-10.620.83-1.80-1.76-1.72-1.68-1.63
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -1.58-0.501.93-1.331.070.360.350.340.33
Accounts Payable --1.55-0.500.450.32-0.31-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08
Capital Expenditure --0.76-0.85-0.48-0.49-0.59-0.58-0.57-0.55-0.54
UFCF 2.971.780.72-1.66-0.620.550.070.070.070.07
WACC
PV UFCF 0.510.060.060.050.05
SUM PV UFCF 0.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) 0.07
Terminal Value 1.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 1.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1.79
Net Debt 7.38
Equity Value -5.60
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share -0.05