Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ADLPartner SA (ALP.PA)
17.55 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 122.30 | 124.20 | 124.99 | 138.64 | 139.31 | 144.04 | 148.94 | 154 | 159.23 | 164.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 9.40 | 8.13 | 17.16 | 14.85 | 12.14 | 13.65 | 14.12 | 14.59 | 15.09 | 15.60 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 8.64 | 6.80 | 14.71 | 7.71 | 9.61 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 11.32 | 11.71 | 12.11 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.75 | 1.34 | 2.45 | 7.15 | 2.53 | 3.06 | 3.16 | 3.27 | 3.38 | 3.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.23 | 32.18 | 35.19 | 29.32 | 42.47 | 37.34 | 38.61 | 39.92 | 41.27 | 42.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.26 | 1.64 | 2.05 | 2.65 | 1.37 | 2.46 | 2.54 | 2.63 | 2.71 | 2.81 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 43.52 | 46.28 | 42.43 | 43.65 | 49.90 | 50.16 | 51.86 | 53.62 | 55.45 | 57.33 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.50 | -1.17 | -2.38 | -2.15 | -2.21 | -1.84 | -1.90 | -1.97 | -2.04 | -2.11 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.921 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4.08 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.70 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.194 |
| Total Debt | 25.38 |
| Total Equity | 71.60 |
| Total Capital | 96.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 26.17 |
| Equity Weighting | 73.83 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 122.30 | 124.20 | 124.99 | 138.64 | 139.31 | 144.04 | 148.94 | 154 | 159.23 | 164.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9.40 | 8.13 | 17.16 | 14.85 | 12.14 | 13.65 | 14.12 | 14.59 | 15.09 | 15.60 |
| EBIT | 8.64 | 6.80 | 14.71 | 7.71 | 9.61 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 11.32 | 11.71 | 12.11 |
| Tax Rate | 39.73% | 28.55% | 33.38% | 29.66% | 28.70% | 32.00% | 32.00% | 32.00% | 32.00% | 32.00% |
| EBIAT | 5.21 | 4.86 | 9.80 | 5.42 | 6.85 | 7.20 | 7.45 | 7.70 | 7.96 | 8.23 |
| Depreciation | 0.75 | 1.34 | 2.45 | 7.15 | 2.53 | 3.06 | 3.16 | 3.27 | 3.38 | 3.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 1.62 | -0.41 | -0.59 | 1.28 | -1.09 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.76 | -3.86 | 1.22 | 6.25 | 0.25 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.50 | -1.17 | -2.38 | -2.15 | -2.21 | -1.84 | -1.90 | -1.97 | -2.04 | -2.11 |
| UFCF | 5.46 | 9.40 | 5.61 | 11.05 | 14.70 | 7.59 | 10.33 | 10.68 | 11.04 | 11.42 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 7.19 | 9.28 | 9.10 | 8.92 | 8.74 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 43.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.48 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 11.64 |
| Terminal Value | 334.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 256.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 299.50 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -17.09 |
| Equity Value | 316.60 |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.08 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 77.60 |