Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ADLPartner SA (ALP.PA)
17.55 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 122.30 | 124.20 | 124.99 | 138.64 | 139.31 | 144.04 | 148.94 | 154 | 159.23 | 164.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 9.40 | 8.13 | 17.16 | 14.85 | 12.14 | 13.65 | 14.12 | 14.59 | 15.09 | 15.60 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 8.64 | 6.80 | 14.71 | 7.71 | 9.61 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 11.32 | 11.71 | 12.11 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 0.75 | 1.34 | 2.45 | 7.15 | 2.53 | 3.06 | 3.16 | 3.27 | 3.38 | 3.50 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Total Cash | 29.23 | 32.18 | 35.19 | 29.32 | 42.47 | 37.34 | 38.61 | 39.92 | 41.27 | 42.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3.26 | 1.64 | 2.05 | 2.65 | 1.37 | 2.46 | 2.54 | 2.63 | 2.71 | 2.81 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 43.52 | 46.28 | 42.43 | 43.65 | 49.90 | 50.16 | 51.86 | 53.62 | 55.45 | 57.33 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.50 | -1.17 | -2.38 | -2.15 | -2.21 | -1.84 | -1.90 | -1.97 | -2.04 | -2.11 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 17.55 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.921 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4.08 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 28.70 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.63% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.194 |
Total Debt | 25.38 |
Total Equity | 71.60 |
Total Capital | 96.98 |
Debt Weighting | 26.17 |
Equity Weighting | 73.83 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 122.30 | 124.20 | 124.99 | 138.64 | 139.31 | 144.04 | 148.94 | 154 | 159.23 | 164.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 9.40 | 8.13 | 17.16 | 14.85 | 12.14 | 13.65 | 14.12 | 14.59 | 15.09 | 15.60 |
EBIT | 8.64 | 6.80 | 14.71 | 7.71 | 9.61 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 11.32 | 11.71 | 12.11 |
Tax Rate | 39.73% | 28.55% | 33.38% | 29.66% | 28.70% | 32.00% | 32.00% | 32.00% | 32.00% | 32.00% |
EBIAT | 5.21 | 4.86 | 9.80 | 5.42 | 6.85 | 7.20 | 7.45 | 7.70 | 7.96 | 8.23 |
Depreciation | 0.75 | 1.34 | 2.45 | 7.15 | 2.53 | 3.06 | 3.16 | 3.27 | 3.38 | 3.50 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | 1.62 | -0.41 | -0.59 | 1.28 | -1.09 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.76 | -3.86 | 1.22 | 6.25 | 0.25 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.50 | -1.17 | -2.38 | -2.15 | -2.21 | -1.84 | -1.90 | -1.97 | -2.04 | -2.11 |
UFCF | 5.46 | 9.40 | 5.61 | 11.05 | 14.70 | 7.59 | 10.33 | 10.68 | 11.04 | 11.42 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 7.19 | 9.28 | 9.10 | 8.92 | 8.74 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 43.24 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.48 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 11.64 |
Terminal Value | 334.62 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 256.27 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 299.50 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -17.09 |
Equity Value | 316.60 |
Shares Outstanding | 4.08 |
Equity Value Per Share | 77.60 |