Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alphageo (India) Limited (ALPHAGEO.NS)
231 ₹
-3.50 (-1.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,294.37 | 4,050.77 | 2,675.19 | 1,430.99 | 1,548.83 | 1,247.17 | 1,004.27 | 808.67 | 651.17 | 524.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,226.51 | 1,057.22 | 212.63 | 365.17 | 384.91 | 281.81 | 226.92 | 182.73 | 147.14 | 118.48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 887.23 | 737.08 | -70.85 | 92.80 | 186.60 | 136.54 | 109.95 | 88.53 | 71.29 | 57.41 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 339.28 | 320.14 | 283.48 | 272.37 | 198.32 | 145.27 | 116.97 | 94.19 | 75.85 | 61.07 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 219.68 | 1,051.67 | 718.46 | 601.64 | 1,406.46 | 475.89 | 383.20 | 308.57 | 248.47 | 200.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 9.98 | 4.25 | 10.28 | 13.62 | 6.99 | 5.30 | 4.27 | 3.44 | 2.77 | 2.23 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 704.25 | 775.77 | 287.80 | 330.24 | 285.08 | 218.99 | 176.34 | 141.99 | 114.34 | 92.07 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -524.98 | -85.05 | -257.65 | -242.25 | -63.67 | -112.23 | -90.38 | -72.77 | -58.60 | -47.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 231 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.066 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6.36 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 30.68 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.47% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.730 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 1,469.96 |
| Total Capital | 1,469.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,294.37 | 4,050.77 | 2,675.19 | 1,430.99 | 1,548.83 | 1,247.17 | 1,004.27 | 808.67 | 651.17 | 524.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,226.51 | 1,057.22 | 212.63 | 365.17 | 384.91 | 281.81 | 226.92 | 182.73 | 147.14 | 118.48 |
| EBIT | 887.23 | 737.08 | -70.85 | 92.80 | 186.60 | 136.54 | 109.95 | 88.53 | 71.29 | 57.41 |
| Tax Rate | 36.09% | 37.32% | -13.70% | 29.26% | 30.68% | 23.93% | 23.93% | 23.93% | 23.93% | 23.93% |
| EBIAT | 567.03 | 462 | -80.55 | 65.64 | 129.34 | 103.87 | 83.64 | 67.35 | 54.23 | 43.67 |
| Depreciation | 339.28 | 320.14 | 283.48 | 272.37 | 198.32 | 145.27 | 116.97 | 94.19 | 75.85 | 61.07 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 5.73 | -6.03 | -3.34 | 6.63 | 1.69 | 1.03 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 71.53 | -487.97 | 42.44 | -45.16 | -66.10 | -42.65 | -34.34 | -27.65 | -22.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -524.98 | -85.05 | -257.65 | -242.25 | -63.67 | -112.23 | -90.38 | -72.77 | -58.60 | -47.19 |
| UFCF | 381.33 | 774.34 | -548.73 | 134.86 | 225.47 | 72.49 | 68.62 | 55.25 | 44.49 | 35.83 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 66.67 | 58.04 | 42.98 | 31.83 | 23.58 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 223.11 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 36.54 |
| Terminal Value | 542.99 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 357.31 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 580.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -1,076.21 |
| Equity Value | 1,656.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.36 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 260.33 |