Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphageo (India) Limited (ALPHAGEO.NS)

332.8 ₹

-0.20 (-0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 160.51 | 332.8 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,050.772,675.191,430.991,548.83659.50445.73301.26203.61137.6193.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,025.57188.32362.70365.86308.62114.2277.2052.1735.2623.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 705.43-95.1690.33167.54183.2152.3935.4123.9316.1710.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 320.14283.48272.37198.32125.4261.8341.7928.2419.0912.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,051.67718.46601.641,332.881,398.21350.29236.75160.01108.1573.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,639.50837.94881.20824.28325.21210.30142.1496.0764.9343.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.2510.2813.626.995.232.391.621.090.740.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 775.77287.80330.24285.0812.6165.3544.1729.8520.1813.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -85.05-257.65-242.25-63.67-166.05-51.66-34.92-23.60-15.95-10.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 332.8
Beta 0.911
Diluted Shares Outstanding 6.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.656
Total Debt -
Total Equity 2,118.19
Total Capital 2,118.19
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,050.772,675.191,430.991,548.83659.50445.73301.26203.61137.6193.01
EBITDA 1,025.57188.32362.70365.86308.62114.2277.2052.1735.2623.83
EBIT 705.43-95.1690.33167.54183.2152.3935.4123.9316.1710.93
Tax Rate 37.32%-13.70%29.26%30.68%27.20%22.15%22.15%22.15%22.15%22.15%
EBIAT 442.16-108.1963.90116.13133.3740.7827.5618.6312.598.51
Depreciation 320.14283.48272.37198.32125.4261.8341.7928.2419.0912.90
Accounts Receivable -801.55-43.2656.93499.07114.9168.1746.0731.1421.05
Inventories --6.03-3.346.631.762.830.780.520.350.24
Accounts Payable --487.9742.44-45.16-272.4852.74-21.18-14.32-9.68-6.54
Capital Expenditure -85.05-257.65-242.25-63.67-166.05-51.66-34.92-23.60-15.95-10.78
UFCF 677.24225.1889.85269.18321.08221.4382.2055.5537.5525.38
WACC
PV UFCF 203.7869.6243.3026.9316.75
SUM PV UFCF 360.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 26.27
Terminal Value 509.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 336.03

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 696.42
Net Debt -325.21
Equity Value 1,021.63
Shares Outstanding 6.36
Equity Value Per Share 160.51