Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alphageo (India) Limited (ALPHAGEO.NS)
332.8 ₹
-0.20 (-0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,050.77 | 2,675.19 | 1,430.99 | 1,548.83 | 659.50 | 445.73 | 301.26 | 203.61 | 137.61 | 93.01 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,025.57 | 188.32 | 362.70 | 365.86 | 308.62 | 114.22 | 77.20 | 52.17 | 35.26 | 23.83 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 705.43 | -95.16 | 90.33 | 167.54 | 183.21 | 52.39 | 35.41 | 23.93 | 16.17 | 10.93 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 320.14 | 283.48 | 272.37 | 198.32 | 125.42 | 61.83 | 41.79 | 28.24 | 19.09 | 12.90 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,051.67 | 718.46 | 601.64 | 1,332.88 | 1,398.21 | 350.29 | 236.75 | 160.01 | 108.15 | 73.09 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,639.50 | 837.94 | 881.20 | 824.28 | 325.21 | 210.30 | 142.14 | 96.07 | 64.93 | 43.88 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 4.25 | 10.28 | 13.62 | 6.99 | 5.23 | 2.39 | 1.62 | 1.09 | 0.74 | 0.50 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 775.77 | 287.80 | 330.24 | 285.08 | 12.61 | 65.35 | 44.17 | 29.85 | 20.18 | 13.64 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -85.05 | -257.65 | -242.25 | -63.67 | -166.05 | -51.66 | -34.92 | -23.60 | -15.95 | -10.78 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 332.8 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.911 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6.36 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 27.20 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.64% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.656 |
Total Debt | - |
Total Equity | 2,118.19 |
Total Capital | 2,118.19 |
Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,050.77 | 2,675.19 | 1,430.99 | 1,548.83 | 659.50 | 445.73 | 301.26 | 203.61 | 137.61 | 93.01 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,025.57 | 188.32 | 362.70 | 365.86 | 308.62 | 114.22 | 77.20 | 52.17 | 35.26 | 23.83 |
EBIT | 705.43 | -95.16 | 90.33 | 167.54 | 183.21 | 52.39 | 35.41 | 23.93 | 16.17 | 10.93 |
Tax Rate | 37.32% | -13.70% | 29.26% | 30.68% | 27.20% | 22.15% | 22.15% | 22.15% | 22.15% | 22.15% |
EBIAT | 442.16 | -108.19 | 63.90 | 116.13 | 133.37 | 40.78 | 27.56 | 18.63 | 12.59 | 8.51 |
Depreciation | 320.14 | 283.48 | 272.37 | 198.32 | 125.42 | 61.83 | 41.79 | 28.24 | 19.09 | 12.90 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 801.55 | -43.26 | 56.93 | 499.07 | 114.91 | 68.17 | 46.07 | 31.14 | 21.05 |
Inventories | - | -6.03 | -3.34 | 6.63 | 1.76 | 2.83 | 0.78 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.24 |
Accounts Payable | - | -487.97 | 42.44 | -45.16 | -272.48 | 52.74 | -21.18 | -14.32 | -9.68 | -6.54 |
Capital Expenditure | -85.05 | -257.65 | -242.25 | -63.67 | -166.05 | -51.66 | -34.92 | -23.60 | -15.95 | -10.78 |
UFCF | 677.24 | 225.18 | 89.85 | 269.18 | 321.08 | 221.43 | 82.20 | 55.55 | 37.55 | 25.38 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 203.78 | 69.62 | 43.30 | 26.93 | 16.75 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 360.39 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.66 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26.27 |
Terminal Value | 509.01 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 336.03 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 696.42 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -325.21 |
Equity Value | 1,021.63 |
Shares Outstanding | 6.36 |
Equity Value Per Share | 160.51 |