Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Poujoulat SA (ALPJT.PA)

25 €

-0.20 (-0.79%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -218.74 | 25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 220.01231.96241.76245.21302.24328.19356.37386.97420.19456.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11.7210.1514.6219.7031.1122.3724.2926.3728.6431.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.721.453.529.6621.029.6210.4511.3512.3213.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.018.7011.0910.0510.0912.7413.8415.0316.3217.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 8.331.938.4615.1924.1614.6415.9017.2618.7520.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 39.3740.9143.0357.2154.1962.0967.4273.2079.4986.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22.0719.7316.4720.7233.1029.3731.8934.6337.6040.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.76-10.50-23.74-15.06-15.23-19.67-21.35-23.19-25.18-27.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25
Beta 0.728
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.292
Total Debt 71.85
Total Equity 47.50
Total Capital 119.35
Debt Weighting 60.20
Equity Weighting 39.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 220.01231.96241.76245.21302.24328.19356.37386.97420.19456.27
EBITDA 11.7210.1514.6219.7031.1122.3724.2926.3728.6431.10
EBIT 3.721.453.529.6621.029.6210.4511.3512.3213.38
Tax Rate 33.46%73.31%28.83%32.96%33.55%40.42%40.42%40.42%40.42%40.42%
EBIAT 2.470.392.516.4713.975.736.236.767.347.97
Depreciation 8.018.7011.0910.0510.0912.7413.8415.0316.3217.72
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --1.54-2.11-14.183.02-7.90-5.33-5.79-6.29-6.82
Accounts Payable --2.34-3.264.2612.37-3.732.522.742.973.23
Capital Expenditure -9.76-10.50-23.74-15.06-15.23-19.67-21.35-23.19-25.18-27.34
UFCF 0.72-5.30-15.51-8.4624.23-12.81-4.10-4.45-4.83-5.25
WACC
PV UFCF -12.40-3.84-4.03-4.24-4.45
SUM PV UFCF -28.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) -5.35
Terminal Value -399.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -338.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -367.91
Net Debt 47.69
Equity Value -415.60
Shares Outstanding 1.90
Equity Value Per Share -218.74