Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)
$45.24
+0.67 (+1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,713 | 2,698 | 2,081 | 2,402 | 2,769 | 2,819.41 | 2,870.74 | 2,923.01 | 2,976.23 | 3,030.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,090 | 1,069 | 678 | 838 | 918 | 1,017.36 | 1,035.88 | 1,054.74 | 1,073.94 | 1,093.49 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 926 | 902 | 530 | 688 | 763 | 841.49 | 856.81 | 872.40 | 888.29 | 904.46 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 164 | 167 | 148 | 150 | 155 | 175.87 | 179.07 | 182.33 | 185.65 | 189.03 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 231 | 192 | 310 | 127 | 232 | 249.20 | 253.74 | 258.36 | 263.06 | 267.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 295 | 253 | 228 | 301 | 363 | 320.55 | 326.39 | 332.33 | 338.38 | 344.54 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 170 | 199 | 181 | 204 | 224 | 219.48 | 223.47 | 227.54 | 231.68 | 235.90 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 169 | 150 | 157 | 179 | 195 | 190.75 | 194.22 | 197.76 | 201.36 | 205.02 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | -115 | -175 | 11 | -116.67 | -118.80 | -120.96 | -123.16 | -125.40 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 45.24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.989 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 114.12 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.67 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.88% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.163 |
| Total Debt | 2,507 |
| Total Equity | 5,162.89 |
| Total Capital | 7,669.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.69 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.31 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,713 | 2,698 | 2,081 | 2,402 | 2,769 | 2,819.41 | 2,870.74 | 2,923.01 | 2,976.23 | 3,030.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,090 | 1,069 | 678 | 838 | 918 | 1,017.36 | 1,035.88 | 1,054.74 | 1,073.94 | 1,093.49 |
| EBIT | 926 | 902 | 530 | 688 | 763 | 841.49 | 856.81 | 872.40 | 888.29 | 904.46 |
| Tax Rate | 20.62% | 21.35% | 23.92% | 22.73% | 17.67% | 21.26% | 21.26% | 21.26% | 21.26% | 21.26% |
| EBIAT | 735.05 | 709.39 | 403.23 | 531.64 | 628.14 | 662.59 | 674.66 | 686.94 | 699.45 | 712.18 |
| Depreciation | 164 | 167 | 148 | 150 | 155 | 175.87 | 179.07 | 182.33 | 185.65 | 189.03 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 42 | 25 | -73 | -62 | 42.45 | -5.84 | -5.94 | -6.05 | -6.16 |
| Inventories | - | -29 | 18 | -23 | -20 | 4.52 | -4 | -4.07 | -4.14 | -4.22 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -19 | 7 | 22 | 16 | -4.25 | 3.47 | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.67 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | -115 | -175 | 11 | -116.67 | -118.80 | -120.96 | -123.16 | -125.40 |
| UFCF | 899.05 | 870.39 | 486.23 | 432.64 | 728.14 | 764.51 | 728.57 | 741.84 | 755.34 | 769.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 716.10 | 639.23 | 609.65 | 581.45 | 554.55 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,100.98 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 784.48 |
| Terminal Value | 16,480.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,883.13 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,984.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,275 |
| Equity Value | 12,709.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 114.12 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 111.36 |