Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lucibel SA (ALUCI.PA)
0.784 €
-0.02 (-2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 19.37 | 18.06 | 14.17 | 10.20 | 9.15 | 7.62 | 6.35 | 5.30 | 4.41 | 3.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -1.24 | -3.41 | -3.59 | -1.85 | -2.23 | -1.42 | -1.18 | -0.99 | -0.82 | -0.69 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -1.57 | -5.03 | -11.88 | -2.55 | -2.91 | -2.69 | -2.24 | -1.87 | -1.56 | -1.30 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.33 | 1.62 | 8.30 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 1.27 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.72 | 1.60 | 1.96 | 2.51 | 0.98 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 4.86 | 4.81 | 3.05 | 3.07 | 3.21 | 2.11 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 1.22 | 1.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.44 | 2.05 | 1.84 | 1.92 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.78 | -2.29 | -0.46 | -0.33 | -0.51 | -0.44 | -0.37 | -0.30 | -0.25 | -0.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.784 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.125 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14.92 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.48 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.70% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.076 |
| Total Debt | 4.97 |
| Total Equity | 11.70 |
| Total Capital | 16.67 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.81 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.19 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 19.37 | 18.06 | 14.17 | 10.20 | 9.15 | 7.62 | 6.35 | 5.30 | 4.41 | 3.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -1.24 | -3.41 | -3.59 | -1.85 | -2.23 | -1.42 | -1.18 | -0.99 | -0.82 | -0.69 |
| EBIT | -1.57 | -5.03 | -11.88 | -2.55 | -2.91 | -2.69 | -2.24 | -1.87 | -1.56 | -1.30 |
| Tax Rate | 2.31% | 1.46% | -432.73% | -1.30% | 0.48% | -85.96% | -85.96% | -85.96% | -85.96% | -85.96% |
| EBIAT | -1.54 | -4.96 | -63.30 | -2.59 | -2.89 | -5.01 | -4.17 | -3.48 | -2.90 | -2.42 |
| Depreciation | 0.33 | 1.62 | 8.30 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 1.27 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 0.04 | 1.76 | -0.02 | -0.14 | 1.10 | 0.35 | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | -1.39 | -0.21 | 0.07 | -0.53 | -0.23 | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.13 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.78 | -2.29 | -0.46 | -0.33 | -0.51 | -0.44 | -0.37 | -0.30 | -0.25 | -0.21 |
| UFCF | -1.98 | -5.59 | -55.09 | -2.44 | -2.79 | -3.61 | -3.36 | -2.80 | -2.33 | -1.94 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -3.39 | -2.96 | -2.31 | -1.81 | -1.41 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -11.88 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.58 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.98 |
| Terminal Value | -43.29 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -31.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -43.36 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3.99 |
| Equity Value | -47.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.92 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.17 |