Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lucibel SA (ALUCI.PA)

0.784 €

-0.02 (-2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.17 | 0.784 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 19.3718.0614.1710.209.157.626.355.304.413.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1.24-3.41-3.59-1.85-2.23-1.42-1.18-0.99-0.82-0.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1.57-5.03-11.88-2.55-2.91-2.69-2.24-1.87-1.56-1.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.331.628.300.700.681.271.060.880.740.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.721.601.962.510.981.261.050.870.730.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.864.813.053.073.212.111.761.471.221.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -3.442.051.841.921.381.150.960.800.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.78-2.29-0.46-0.33-0.51-0.44-0.37-0.30-0.25-0.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.784
Beta 1.125
Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.48
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.076
Total Debt 4.97
Total Equity 11.70
Total Capital 16.67
Debt Weighting 29.81
Equity Weighting 70.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 19.3718.0614.1710.209.157.626.355.304.413.68
EBITDA -1.24-3.41-3.59-1.85-2.23-1.42-1.18-0.99-0.82-0.69
EBIT -1.57-5.03-11.88-2.55-2.91-2.69-2.24-1.87-1.56-1.30
Tax Rate 2.31%1.46%-432.73%-1.30%0.48%-85.96%-85.96%-85.96%-85.96%-85.96%
EBIAT -1.54-4.96-63.30-2.59-2.89-5.01-4.17-3.48-2.90-2.42
Depreciation 0.331.628.300.700.681.271.060.880.740.61
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0.041.76-0.02-0.141.100.350.290.240.20
Accounts Payable ---1.39-0.210.07-0.53-0.23-0.19-0.16-0.13
Capital Expenditure -0.78-2.29-0.46-0.33-0.51-0.44-0.37-0.30-0.25-0.21
UFCF -1.98-5.59-55.09-2.44-2.79-3.61-3.36-2.80-2.33-1.94
WACC
PV UFCF -3.39-2.96-2.31-1.81-1.41
SUM PV UFCF -11.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1.98
Terminal Value -43.29
Present Value of Terminal Value -31.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -43.36
Net Debt 3.99
Equity Value -47.35
Shares Outstanding 14.92
Equity Value Per Share -3.17