Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Umanis SA (ALUMS.PA)
17.15 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 191.07 | 206.74 | 219.22 | 214.87 | 245.95 | 262.38 | 279.91 | 298.61 | 318.55 | 339.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 27.83 | 15.49 | 19.27 | 26.39 | 28.11 | 28.63 | 30.54 | 32.58 | 34.76 | 37.08 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 23.95 | 15.62 | 12.59 | 20.01 | 20.71 | 22.86 | 24.39 | 26.01 | 27.75 | 29.61 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.88 | -0.13 | 6.68 | 6.39 | 7.40 | 5.77 | 6.16 | 6.57 | 7.01 | 7.47 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 19.06 | 24.45 | 12.96 | 65.81 | 30.40 | 37.10 | 39.58 | 42.22 | 45.04 | 48.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.04 | 9.77 | 10.82 | 11.44 | 13.20 | 12.07 | 12.87 | 13.73 | 14.65 | 15.63 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.64 | -2.62 | -1.49 | -0.53 | -1.12 | -2.12 | -2.26 | -2.41 | -2.57 | -2.74 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.15 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.858 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 18.55 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.54% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.521 |
| Total Debt | 65.71 |
| Total Equity | 318.20 |
| Total Capital | 383.91 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 191.07 | 206.74 | 219.22 | 214.87 | 245.95 | 262.38 | 279.91 | 298.61 | 318.55 | 339.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 27.83 | 15.49 | 19.27 | 26.39 | 28.11 | 28.63 | 30.54 | 32.58 | 34.76 | 37.08 |
| EBIT | 23.95 | 15.62 | 12.59 | 20.01 | 20.71 | 22.86 | 24.39 | 26.01 | 27.75 | 29.61 |
| Tax Rate | 13.95% | 20.72% | 25.47% | 18.88% | 27.49% | 21.30% | 21.30% | 21.30% | 21.30% | 21.30% |
| EBIAT | 20.61 | 12.38 | 9.38 | 16.23 | 15.01 | 17.99 | 19.19 | 20.47 | 21.84 | 23.30 |
| Depreciation | 3.88 | -0.13 | 6.68 | 6.39 | 7.40 | 5.77 | 6.16 | 6.57 | 7.01 | 7.47 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -0 | -0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.72 | 1.06 | 0.62 | 1.76 | -1.13 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.64 | -2.62 | -1.49 | -0.53 | -1.12 | -2.12 | -2.26 | -2.41 | -2.57 | -2.74 |
| UFCF | 21.84 | 14.36 | 15.63 | 22.70 | 23.05 | 20.51 | 23.90 | 25.49 | 27.19 | 29.01 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 19.23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21.01 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 103.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.67 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 29.59 |
| Terminal Value | 633.64 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 458.81 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 562.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 35.31 |
| Equity Value | 526.73 |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.55 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 28.39 |