Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN)

$182.5

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 120.47 | 182.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	3,084	3,551.10	4,131.20	4,991.10	6,069.90	7,191.48	8,520.30	10,094.66	11,959.93	14,169.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,069	1,142.90	745.70	2,633.40	1,003.10	2,217.64	2,627.41	3,112.90	3,688.09	4,369.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	673	646.20	340.40	2,256.60	673.70	1,504.04	1,781.95	2,111.21	2,501.32	2,963.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	396	496.70	405.30	376.80	329.40	713.60	845.46	1,001.69	1,186.77	1,406.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	1,293	1,474.10	1,563.80	2,749.50	2,999.40	3,247.57	3,847.65	4,558.61	5,400.93	6,398.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	650	726.50	922.30	1,243.20	1,409.30	1,610.70	1,908.32	2,260.93	2,678.70	3,173.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	375	460.40	472.50	627.60	775.70	890.53	1,055.08	1,250.04	1,481.02	1,754.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	64	70.80	74.40	74	118.60	133.85	158.59	187.89	222.61	263.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-333	-357.30	-213	-170.70	-106.70	-448.65	-531.55	-629.77	-746.14	-884.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 182.5
Beta	1.260
Diluted Shares Outstanding	219.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-6.05
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.439
Total Debt	2,562
Total Equity	39,985.75
Total Capital	42,547.75
Debt Weighting	6.02
Equity Weighting	93.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	3,084	3,551.10	4,131.20	4,991.10	6,069.90	7,191.48	8,520.30	10,094.66	11,959.93	14,169.85
EBITDA	1,069	1,142.90	745.70	2,633.40	1,003.10	2,217.64	2,627.41	3,112.90	3,688.09	4,369.57
EBIT	673	646.20	340.40	2,256.60	673.70	1,504.04	1,781.95	2,111.21	2,501.32	2,963.50
Tax Rate	30.73%	19.08%	67.96%	-10.35%	-6.05%	20.27%	20.27%	20.27%	20.27%	20.27%
EBIAT	466.19	522.93	109.06	2,490.15	714.43	1,199.11	1,420.67	1,683.18	1,994.20	2,362.68
Depreciation	396	496.70	405.30	376.80	329.40	713.60	845.46	1,001.69	1,186.77	1,406.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-76.50	-195.80	-320.90	-166.10	-201.40	-297.62	-352.61	-417.77	-494.96
Inventories	-	-85.40	-12.10	-155.10	-148.10	-114.83	-164.55	-194.96	-230.98	-273.66
Accounts Payable	-	6.80	3.60	-0.40	44.60	15.25	24.73	29.30	34.72	41.13
Capital Expenditure	-333	-357.30	-213	-170.70	-106.70	-448.65	-531.55	-629.77	-746.14	-884.01
UFCF	529.19	507.23	97.06	2,219.85	667.53	1,163.09	1,297.15	1,536.83	1,820.81	2,157.25
WACC
PV UFCF						1,065.88	1,089.39	1,182.81	1,284.24	1,394.37
SUM PV UFCF										6,016.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.12
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,200.40
Terminal Value	30,904.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	19,975.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	25,992.25
Net Debt	-402.50
Equity Value	26,394.75
Shares Outstanding	219.10
Equity Value Per Share	120.47