Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alithya Group Inc. (ALYA)

$1.67

-0.03 (-1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -28.58 | 1.67 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 206.67209.48279.01287.64437.89536.28656.78804.36985.091,206.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1.14-4.15-25.83-1.055.53-10.50-12.86-15.76-19.30-23.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -5.45-13.23-40.48-16.56-14.19-34.81-42.64-52.22-63.95-78.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6.599.0714.6515.5119.7224.3129.7736.4644.6554.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 14.4614.128.816.9017.6625.0230.6537.5345.9756.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 48.9481.7783.7284.87126.65162.12198.55243.16297.80364.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 17.701914.9715.2026.6036.8545.1455.2867.7082.91
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.42-1.51-4.54-2.27-3.08-4.86-5.95-7.28-8.92-10.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.67
Beta 0.684
Diluted Shares Outstanding 85.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.30
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.826
Total Debt 127.94
Total Equity 142.45
Total Capital 270.39
Debt Weighting 47.32
Equity Weighting 52.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 206.67209.48279.01287.64437.89536.28656.78804.36985.091,206.44
EBITDA 1.14-4.15-25.83-1.055.53-10.50-12.86-15.76-19.30-23.63
EBIT -5.45-13.23-40.48-16.56-14.19-34.81-42.64-52.22-63.95-78.32
Tax Rate 4.17%18.60%6.95%11.63%16.30%11.53%11.53%11.53%11.53%11.53%
EBIAT -5.23-10.77-37.66-14.63-11.88-30.80-37.72-46.20-56.58-69.29
Depreciation 6.599.0714.6515.5119.7224.3129.7736.4644.6554.69
Accounts Receivable --32.84-1.95-1.14-41.79-35.46-36.43-44.61-54.64-66.91
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.30-4.030.2211.4110.258.2810.1412.4215.21
Capital Expenditure -1.42-1.51-4.54-2.27-3.08-4.86-5.95-7.28-8.92-10.92
UFCF -0.06-34.74-33.53-2.32-25.62-36.56-42.04-51.49-63.06-77.23
WACC
PV UFCF -34.84-38.17-44.54-51.98-60.65
SUM PV UFCF -230.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) -78.77
Terminal Value -2,670.25
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,097.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,327.38
Net Debt 110.28
Equity Value -2,437.66
Shares Outstanding 85.30
Equity Value Per Share -28.58