Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alithya Group Inc. (ALYA)
$1.67
-0.03 (-1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 206.67 | 209.48 | 279.01 | 287.64 | 437.89 | 536.28 | 656.78 | 804.36 | 985.09 | 1,206.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1.14 | -4.15 | -25.83 | -1.05 | 5.53 | -10.50 | -12.86 | -15.76 | -19.30 | -23.63 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -5.45 | -13.23 | -40.48 | -16.56 | -14.19 | -34.81 | -42.64 | -52.22 | -63.95 | -78.32 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.59 | 9.07 | 14.65 | 15.51 | 19.72 | 24.31 | 29.77 | 36.46 | 44.65 | 54.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 14.46 | 14.12 | 8.81 | 6.90 | 17.66 | 25.02 | 30.65 | 37.53 | 45.97 | 56.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 48.94 | 81.77 | 83.72 | 84.87 | 126.65 | 162.12 | 198.55 | 243.16 | 297.80 | 364.71 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 17.70 | 19 | 14.97 | 15.20 | 26.60 | 36.85 | 45.14 | 55.28 | 67.70 | 82.91 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.42 | -1.51 | -4.54 | -2.27 | -3.08 | -4.86 | -5.95 | -7.28 | -8.92 | -10.92 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.67 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.684 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 85.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.30 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.87% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.826 |
| Total Debt | 127.94 |
| Total Equity | 142.45 |
| Total Capital | 270.39 |
| Debt Weighting | 47.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 52.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 206.67 | 209.48 | 279.01 | 287.64 | 437.89 | 536.28 | 656.78 | 804.36 | 985.09 | 1,206.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1.14 | -4.15 | -25.83 | -1.05 | 5.53 | -10.50 | -12.86 | -15.76 | -19.30 | -23.63 |
| EBIT | -5.45 | -13.23 | -40.48 | -16.56 | -14.19 | -34.81 | -42.64 | -52.22 | -63.95 | -78.32 |
| Tax Rate | 4.17% | 18.60% | 6.95% | 11.63% | 16.30% | 11.53% | 11.53% | 11.53% | 11.53% | 11.53% |
| EBIAT | -5.23 | -10.77 | -37.66 | -14.63 | -11.88 | -30.80 | -37.72 | -46.20 | -56.58 | -69.29 |
| Depreciation | 6.59 | 9.07 | 14.65 | 15.51 | 19.72 | 24.31 | 29.77 | 36.46 | 44.65 | 54.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -32.84 | -1.95 | -1.14 | -41.79 | -35.46 | -36.43 | -44.61 | -54.64 | -66.91 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.30 | -4.03 | 0.22 | 11.41 | 10.25 | 8.28 | 10.14 | 12.42 | 15.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.42 | -1.51 | -4.54 | -2.27 | -3.08 | -4.86 | -5.95 | -7.28 | -8.92 | -10.92 |
| UFCF | -0.06 | -34.74 | -33.53 | -2.32 | -25.62 | -36.56 | -42.04 | -51.49 | -63.06 | -77.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -34.84 | -38.17 | -44.54 | -51.98 | -60.65 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -230.18 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -78.77 |
| Terminal Value | -2,670.25 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,097.20 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,327.38 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 110.28 |
| Equity Value | -2,437.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 85.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -28.58 |