Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
$119.48
+4.41 (+3.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 14,698 | 16,705 | 14,608 | 17,202 | 23,063 | 26,114.86 | 29,570.56 | 33,483.54 | 37,914.32 | 42,931.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 4,421 | 5,110 | 3,893 | 4,782 | 7,401 | 7,688.62 | 8,706.03 | 9,858.08 | 11,162.57 | 12,639.68 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 4,014 | 4,653 | 3,530 | 4,406 | 7,007 | 7,067.93 | 8,003.21 | 9,062.25 | 10,261.43 | 11,619.29 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 407 | 457 | 363 | 376 | 394 | 620.69 | 702.83 | 795.83 | 901.14 | 1,020.38 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 7,276 | 4,030 | 3,618 | 5,738 | 5,459 | 8,117.63 | 9,191.81 | 10,408.13 | 11,785.41 | 13,344.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,395 | 2,462 | 2,737 | 3,125 | 4,953 | 4,669.94 | 5,287.90 | 5,987.63 | 6,779.96 | 7,677.13 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,930 | 3,721 | 3,474 | 3,904 | 4,309 | 5,607.88 | 6,349.96 | 7,190.23 | 8,141.69 | 9,219.05 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 945 | 996 | 958 | 1,124 | 1,472 | 1,664.37 | 1,884.62 | 2,134 | 2,416.39 | 2,736.14 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -345 | -622 | -441 | -422 | -668 | -754.16 | -853.95 | -966.95 | -1,094.91 | -1,239.79 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 119.48 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.438 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 919 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 13.04 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.57% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.530 |
Total Debt | 5,753 |
Total Equity | 109,802.12 |
Total Capital | 115,555.12 |
Debt Weighting | 4.98 |
Equity Weighting | 95.02 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 14,698 | 16,705 | 14,608 | 17,202 | 23,063 | 26,114.86 | 29,570.56 | 33,483.54 | 37,914.32 | 42,931.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4,421 | 5,110 | 3,893 | 4,782 | 7,401 | 7,688.62 | 8,706.03 | 9,858.08 | 11,162.57 | 12,639.68 |
EBIT | 4,014 | 4,653 | 3,530 | 4,406 | 7,007 | 7,067.93 | 8,003.21 | 9,062.25 | 10,261.43 | 11,619.29 |
Tax Rate | 7.78% | 30.89% | 17.22% | 13.13% | 13.04% | 16.41% | 16.41% | 16.41% | 16.41% | 16.41% |
EBIAT | 3,701.59 | 3,215.61 | 2,922.05 | 3,827.49 | 6,093.22 | 5,907.83 | 6,689.59 | 7,574.80 | 8,577.16 | 9,712.14 |
Depreciation | 407 | 457 | 363 | 376 | 394 | 620.69 | 702.83 | 795.83 | 901.14 | 1,020.38 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -67 | -275 | -388 | -1,828 | 283.06 | -617.96 | -699.73 | -792.33 | -897.17 |
Inventories | - | -791 | 247 | -430 | -405 | -1,298.88 | -742.07 | -840.27 | -951.46 | -1,077.37 |
Accounts Payable | - | 51 | -38 | 166 | 348 | 192.37 | 220.24 | 249.39 | 282.39 | 319.75 |
Capital Expenditure | -345 | -622 | -441 | -422 | -668 | -754.16 | -853.95 | -966.95 | -1,094.91 | -1,239.79 |
UFCF | 3,763.59 | 2,243.61 | 2,778.05 | 3,129.49 | 3,934.22 | 4,950.91 | 5,398.67 | 6,113.06 | 6,921.99 | 7,837.95 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 4,532.56 | 4,524.84 | 4,690.65 | 4,862.54 | 5,040.73 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 23,651.31 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.23 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 7,994.71 |
Terminal Value | 110,576.95 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 71,113.97 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 94,765.28 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 758 |
Equity Value | 94,007.28 |
Shares Outstanding | 919 |
Equity Value Per Share | 102.29 |