Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC)

$16.36

-0.04 (-0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -132.93 | 16.36 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 616.33507.54497156248229.79212.92197.29182.81169.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -12.46622.77380-16024789.2482.6976.6270.9965.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -164.31514.7985-21819013.2112.2411.3410.519.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 151.85107.98295585776.0370.4565.2860.4956.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5,833.153,609.103,2542,8292,1612,296.602,128.011,971.791,827.031,692.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,281.502,501.872,4822,5592,4701,763.261,633.821,513.881,402.741,299.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 37.8832.9129273322.5620.9019.3717.9416.63
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.36
Beta 1.198
Diluted Shares Outstanding 46.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 850.00
After-tax Cost of Debt -21.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.289
Total Debt 6,447
Total Equity 761.31
Total Capital 7,208.31
Debt Weighting 89.44
Equity Weighting 10.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 616.33507.54497156248229.79212.92197.29182.81169.39
EBITDA -12.46622.77380-16024789.2482.6976.6270.9965.78
EBIT -164.31514.7985-21819013.2112.2411.3410.519.74
Tax Rate -15.64%1.88%-18.03%0.68%850.00%163.78%163.78%163.78%163.78%163.78%
EBIAT -190.01505.09100.33-216.51-1,425-8.42-7.81-7.23-6.70-6.21
Depreciation 151.85107.98295585776.0370.4565.2860.4956.04
Accounts Receivable --1,220.3719.88-7789706.74129.44119.94111.14102.98
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --4.96-3.91-26-10.44-1.66-1.53-1.42-1.32
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----763.90190.43176.45163.50151.50
WACC
PV UFCF 936.96286.49325.59370.03420.54
SUM PV UFCF 2,339.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -18.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) 154.53
Terminal Value -754.89
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,095.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 244.08
Net Debt 6,430
Equity Value -6,185.92
Shares Outstanding 46.54
Equity Value Per Share -132.93