Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC)
$16.36
-0.04 (-0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 616.33 | 507.54 | 497 | 156 | 248 | 229.79 | 212.92 | 197.29 | 182.81 | 169.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -12.46 | 622.77 | 380 | -160 | 247 | 89.24 | 82.69 | 76.62 | 70.99 | 65.78 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -164.31 | 514.79 | 85 | -218 | 190 | 13.21 | 12.24 | 11.34 | 10.51 | 9.74 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 151.85 | 107.98 | 295 | 58 | 57 | 76.03 | 70.45 | 65.28 | 60.49 | 56.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 5,833.15 | 3,609.10 | 3,254 | 2,829 | 2,161 | 2,296.60 | 2,128.01 | 1,971.79 | 1,827.03 | 1,692.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,281.50 | 2,501.87 | 2,482 | 2,559 | 2,470 | 1,763.26 | 1,633.82 | 1,513.88 | 1,402.74 | 1,299.76 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 37.88 | 32.91 | 29 | 27 | 33 | 22.56 | 20.90 | 19.37 | 17.94 | 16.63 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16.36 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.198 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 46.54 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 850.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -21.75% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.289 |
| Total Debt | 6,447 |
| Total Equity | 761.31 |
| Total Capital | 7,208.31 |
| Debt Weighting | 89.44 |
| Equity Weighting | 10.56 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 616.33 | 507.54 | 497 | 156 | 248 | 229.79 | 212.92 | 197.29 | 182.81 | 169.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -12.46 | 622.77 | 380 | -160 | 247 | 89.24 | 82.69 | 76.62 | 70.99 | 65.78 |
| EBIT | -164.31 | 514.79 | 85 | -218 | 190 | 13.21 | 12.24 | 11.34 | 10.51 | 9.74 |
| Tax Rate | -15.64% | 1.88% | -18.03% | 0.68% | 850.00% | 163.78% | 163.78% | 163.78% | 163.78% | 163.78% |
| EBIAT | -190.01 | 505.09 | 100.33 | -216.51 | -1,425 | -8.42 | -7.81 | -7.23 | -6.70 | -6.21 |
| Depreciation | 151.85 | 107.98 | 295 | 58 | 57 | 76.03 | 70.45 | 65.28 | 60.49 | 56.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1,220.37 | 19.88 | -77 | 89 | 706.74 | 129.44 | 119.94 | 111.14 | 102.98 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4.96 | -3.91 | -2 | 6 | -10.44 | -1.66 | -1.53 | -1.42 | -1.32 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 763.90 | 190.43 | 176.45 | 163.50 | 151.50 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 936.96 | 286.49 | 325.59 | 370.03 | 420.54 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,339.61 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -18.47 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 154.53 |
| Terminal Value | -754.89 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,095.53 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 244.08 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 6,430 |
| Equity Value | -6,185.92 |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.54 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -132.93 |