Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amcor plc (AMCR)

$10.78

-0.29 (-2.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 23.38 | 10.78 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,262.269,458.2012,467.5012,86114,54416,368.3518,421.5420,732.2723,332.8526,259.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,025.411,395.801,798.802,0142,1332,310.622,600.452,926.643,293.753,706.91
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,025.41942.801,147.201,4401,5081,542.281,735.731,953.462,198.492,474.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -453651.60574625768.34864.72973.191,095.261,232.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 617.01601.60742.608507751,012.101,139.051,281.931,442.731,623.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,198.351,864.301,615.901,8641,9352,403.122,704.563,043.813,425.623,855.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,350.511,953.801,831.901,9912,4392,690.373,027.843,407.643,835.094,316.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,590.802,303.402,170.802,5743,0733,629.844,085.154,597.585,174.285,823.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -369.83-332.20-399.50-468-527-588.34-662.14-745.20-838.67-943.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.78
Beta 0.846
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,556
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.876
Total Debt 6,983
Total Equity 16,773.68
Total Capital 23,756.68
Debt Weighting 29.39
Equity Weighting 70.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,262.269,458.2012,467.5012,86114,54416,368.3518,421.5420,732.2723,332.8526,259.64
EBITDA 1,025.411,395.801,798.802,0142,1332,310.622,600.452,926.643,293.753,706.91
EBIT 1,025.41942.801,147.201,4401,5081,542.281,735.731,953.462,198.492,474.26
Tax Rate 17.79%28.79%25.81%21.29%27.80%24.30%24.30%24.30%24.30%24.30%
EBIAT 842.96671.40851.091,133.411,088.741,167.551,3141,478.831,664.331,873.09
Depreciation -453651.60574625768.34864.72973.191,095.261,232.65
Accounts Receivable --665.95248.40-248.10-71-468.12-301.44-339.25-381.81-429.70
Inventories --603.29121.90-159.10-448-251.37-337.47-379.80-427.44-481.06
Accounts Payable --287.40-132.60403.20499556.84455.31512.43576.70649.04
Capital Expenditure -369.83-332.20-399.50-468-527-588.34-662.14-745.20-838.67-943.87
UFCF 473.13-764.441,340.891,235.411,166.741,184.891,332.991,500.191,688.371,900.15
WACC
PV UFCF 1,117.401,185.461,258.161,335.331,417.23
SUM PV UFCF 6,313.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,938.16
Terminal Value 47,974.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 35,781.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 42,095.11
Net Debt 5,715
Equity Value 36,380.11
Shares Outstanding 1,556
Equity Value Per Share 23.38