Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Amedisys, Inc. (AMED)
$77.31
+0.56 (+0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,662.58 | 1,955.63 | 2,071.52 | 2,214.11 | 2,223.20 | 2,394.64 | 2,579.31 | 2,778.21 | 2,992.45 | 3,223.22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 178.84 | 238.18 | 288.22 | 359.93 | 183.45 | 293.86 | 316.52 | 340.93 | 367.22 | 395.54 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 165.57 | 183.85 | 220.28 | 288.66 | 112.49 | 230.32 | 248.08 | 267.21 | 287.82 | 310.02 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 13.26 | 54.33 | 67.94 | 71.27 | 70.96 | 63.54 | 68.44 | 73.71 | 79.40 | 85.52 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 20.23 | 30.29 | 81.81 | 42.69 | 40.54 | 50.13 | 53.99 | 58.16 | 62.64 | 67.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 193.97 | 243.10 | 263.94 | 274.96 | 296.78 | 299.84 | 322.97 | 347.87 | 374.70 | 403.59 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 28.53 | 31.26 | 42.67 | 38.22 | 43.73 | 43.43 | 46.78 | 50.38 | 54.27 | 58.45 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6.56 | -7.89 | -5.33 | -6.30 | -6.16 | -7.74 | -8.34 | -8.99 | -9.68 | -10.42 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 77.31 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.016 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 33.27 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.03% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.606 |
| Total Debt | 542.75 |
| Total Equity | 2,571.95 |
| Total Capital | 3,114.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,662.58 | 1,955.63 | 2,071.52 | 2,214.11 | 2,223.20 | 2,394.64 | 2,579.31 | 2,778.21 | 2,992.45 | 3,223.22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 178.84 | 238.18 | 288.22 | 359.93 | 183.45 | 293.86 | 316.52 | 340.93 | 367.22 | 395.54 |
| EBIT | 165.57 | 183.85 | 220.28 | 288.66 | 112.49 | 230.32 | 248.08 | 267.21 | 287.82 | 310.02 |
| Tax Rate | 24.93% | 25.57% | 12.91% | 25.39% | 25.98% | 22.96% | 22.96% | 22.96% | 22.96% | 22.96% |
| EBIAT | 124.29 | 136.84 | 191.85 | 215.36 | 83.26 | 177.44 | 191.13 | 205.87 | 221.74 | 238.84 |
| Depreciation | 13.26 | 54.33 | 67.94 | 71.27 | 70.96 | 63.54 | 68.44 | 73.71 | 79.40 | 85.52 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -49.12 | -20.85 | -11.02 | -21.82 | -3.06 | -23.12 | -24.91 | -26.83 | -28.90 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.73 | 11.42 | -4.46 | 5.52 | -0.31 | 3.35 | 3.61 | 3.89 | 4.19 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6.56 | -7.89 | -5.33 | -6.30 | -6.17 | -7.74 | -8.34 | -8.99 | -9.68 | -10.42 |
| UFCF | 130.99 | 136.89 | 245.02 | 264.85 | 131.75 | 229.87 | 231.45 | 249.30 | 268.52 | 289.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 213.56 | 199.76 | 199.89 | 200.03 | 200.16 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,013.39 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.64 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 295.01 |
| Terminal Value | 5,230.74 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,619.89 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,633.28 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 502.21 |
| Equity Value | 4,131.07 |
| Shares Outstanding | 33.27 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 124.18 |