Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
$37.25
-0.25 (-0.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 960.40 | 1,072.86 | 1,143.38 | 1,182.84 | 1,303.88 | 1,408.09 | 1,520.62 | 1,642.14 | 1,773.38 | 1,915.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 490.91 | 549.86 | 597.45 | 600.56 | 665.68 | 722.20 | 779.91 | 842.24 | 909.55 | 982.24 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 193.62 | 231.17 | 268.15 | 257.41 | 303.98 | 310.45 | 335.26 | 362.05 | 390.98 | 422.23 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 297.29 | 318.69 | 329.29 | 343.15 | 361.70 | 411.75 | 444.66 | 480.20 | 518.57 | 560.02 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 46.16 | 30.28 | 37.58 | 137.06 | 48.20 | 73.78 | 79.68 | 86.04 | 92.92 | 100.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 30.14 | 29.03 | 29.62 | 77.06 | 41.59 | 51.08 | 55.17 | 59.57 | 64.34 | 69.48 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.73 | 0.20 | 5.04 | 0.43 | 343.53 | 76.10 | 82.18 | 88.75 | 95.84 | 103.50 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -745.51 | -435.85 | 79.56 | -104.82 | -52.13 | -349.63 | -377.58 | -407.75 | -440.34 | -475.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 37.25 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.610 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 307.07 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 10.20 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.66% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.766 |
| Total Debt | 3,880.48 |
| Total Equity | 11,438.53 |
| Total Capital | 15,319.01 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.33 |
| Equity Weighting | 74.67 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 960.40 | 1,072.86 | 1,143.38 | 1,182.84 | 1,303.88 | 1,408.09 | 1,520.62 | 1,642.14 | 1,773.38 | 1,915.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 490.91 | 549.86 | 597.45 | 600.56 | 665.68 | 722.20 | 779.91 | 842.24 | 909.55 | 982.24 |
| EBIT | 193.62 | 231.17 | 268.15 | 257.41 | 303.98 | 310.45 | 335.26 | 362.05 | 390.98 | 422.23 |
| Tax Rate | -5.89% | 3.70% | 9.74% | 9.34% | 10.20% | 5.42% | 5.42% | 5.42% | 5.42% | 5.42% |
| EBIAT | 205.03 | 222.61 | 242.03 | 233.38 | 272.99 | 293.63 | 317.09 | 342.44 | 369.80 | 399.36 |
| Depreciation | 297.29 | 318.69 | 329.29 | 343.15 | 361.70 | 411.75 | 444.66 | 480.20 | 518.57 | 560.02 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 1.12 | -0.59 | -47.45 | 35.48 | -9.50 | -4.08 | -4.41 | -4.76 | -5.14 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.53 | 4.84 | -4.61 | 343.09 | -267.43 | 6.08 | 6.57 | 7.09 | 7.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | -745.51 | -435.85 | 79.56 | -104.82 | -52.13 | -349.63 | -377.58 | -407.75 | -440.34 | -475.53 |
| UFCF | -243.20 | 105.03 | 655.14 | 419.66 | 961.13 | 78.82 | 386.18 | 417.04 | 450.37 | 486.36 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 75.08 | 350.41 | 360.46 | 370.80 | 381.44 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,538.20 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.98 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 496.09 |
| Terminal Value | 16,647.30 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,056.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,594.22 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,832.28 |
| Equity Value | 10,761.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 307.07 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 35.05 |