Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)

$37.25

-0.25 (-0.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 35.05 | 37.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 960.401,072.861,143.381,182.841,303.881,408.091,520.621,642.141,773.381,915.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 490.91549.86597.45600.56665.68722.20779.91842.24909.55982.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 193.62231.17268.15257.41303.98310.45335.26362.05390.98422.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 297.29318.69329.29343.15361.70411.75444.66480.20518.57560.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 46.1630.2837.58137.0648.2073.7879.6886.0492.92100.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 30.1429.0329.6277.0641.5951.0855.1759.5764.3469.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.730.205.040.43343.5376.1082.1888.7595.84103.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -745.51-435.8579.56-104.82-52.13-349.63-377.58-407.75-440.34-475.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.25
Beta 0.610
Diluted Shares Outstanding 307.07
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.766
Total Debt 3,880.48
Total Equity 11,438.53
Total Capital 15,319.01
Debt Weighting 25.33
Equity Weighting 74.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 960.401,072.861,143.381,182.841,303.881,408.091,520.621,642.141,773.381,915.10
EBITDA 490.91549.86597.45600.56665.68722.20779.91842.24909.55982.24
EBIT 193.62231.17268.15257.41303.98310.45335.26362.05390.98422.23
Tax Rate -5.89%3.70%9.74%9.34%10.20%5.42%5.42%5.42%5.42%5.42%
EBIAT 205.03222.61242.03233.38272.99293.63317.09342.44369.80399.36
Depreciation 297.29318.69329.29343.15361.70411.75444.66480.20518.57560.02
Accounts Receivable -1.12-0.59-47.4535.48-9.50-4.08-4.41-4.76-5.14
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --1.534.84-4.61343.09-267.436.086.577.097.66
Capital Expenditure -745.51-435.8579.56-104.82-52.13-349.63-377.58-407.75-440.34-475.53
UFCF -243.20105.03655.14419.66961.1378.82386.18417.04450.37486.36
WACC
PV UFCF 75.08350.41360.46370.80381.44
SUM PV UFCF 1,538.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 496.09
Terminal Value 16,647.30
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,056.03

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,594.22
Net Debt 3,832.28
Equity Value 10,761.94
Shares Outstanding 307.07
Equity Value Per Share 35.05