Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)
$7.22
+0.07 (+0.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 205.08 | 275.57 | 202.14 | 342.92 | 458.46 | 585.75 | 748.38 | 956.16 | 1,221.64 | 1,560.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 115.81 | 37.45 | -403.12 | 8.10 | 96.04 | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 11.34 | 15.24 | 11.18 | 18.96 | 25.35 | 32.39 | 41.39 | 52.88 | 67.56 | 86.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 26.01 | 33.15 | 30.90 | 91.97 | 80.45 | 98.83 | 126.28 | 161.34 | 206.13 | 263.36 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 6.51 | 8.31 | 0.80 | 33.82 | 38.41 | 29.08 | 37.16 | 47.48 | 60.66 | 77.50 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -112.40 | -73.79 | -35.89 | -29.83 | -34.82 | -135.46 | -173.07 | -221.13 | -282.52 | -360.97 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 7.22 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.483 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.46 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.73% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.530 |
Total Debt | 209.19 |
Total Equity | 277.68 |
Total Capital | 486.87 |
Debt Weighting | 42.97 |
Equity Weighting | 57.03 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 205.08 | 275.57 | 202.14 | 342.92 | 458.46 | 585.75 | 748.38 | 956.16 | 1,221.64 | 1,560.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 115.81 | 37.45 | -403.12 | 8.10 | 96.04 | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.14% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -124.17 | -158.64 | -202.69 | -258.97 | -330.87 |
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Receivable | - | -7.13 | 2.24 | -61.07 | 11.51 | -18.38 | -27.44 | -35.06 | -44.79 | -57.23 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.80 | -7.51 | 33.02 | 4.60 | -9.33 | 8.08 | 10.32 | 13.18 | 16.84 |
Capital Expenditure | -112.40 | -73.79 | -35.89 | -29.83 | -34.82 | -135.46 | -173.07 | -221.13 | -282.52 | -360.97 |
UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -287.34 | -351.08 | -448.56 | -573.10 | -732.22 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -257.13 | -281.13 | -321.42 | -367.49 | -420.15 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -1,647.32 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.75 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -746.87 |
Terminal Value | -7,660.18 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,395.43 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -6,042.75 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 209.19 |
Equity Value | -6,251.95 |
Shares Outstanding | 38.46 |
Equity Value Per Share | -162.56 |