Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)
$6.65
+0.34 (+5.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 205.08 | 275.57 | 202.14 | 342.92 | 458.46 | 585.75 | 748.38 | 956.16 | 1,221.64 | 1,560.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 115.81 | 37.45 | -403.12 | 8.10 | 96.04 | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 11.34 | 15.24 | 11.18 | 18.96 | 25.35 | 32.39 | 41.39 | 52.88 | 67.56 | 86.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 26.01 | 33.15 | 30.90 | 91.97 | 80.45 | 98.83 | 126.28 | 161.34 | 206.13 | 263.36 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.51 | 8.31 | 0.80 | 33.82 | 38.41 | 29.08 | 37.16 | 47.48 | 60.66 | 77.50 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -112.40 | -73.79 | -35.89 | -29.83 | -34.82 | -135.46 | -173.07 | -221.13 | -282.52 | -360.97 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.65 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.546 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.46 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.73% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.580 |
| Total Debt | 209.19 |
| Total Equity | 255.76 |
| Total Capital | 464.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 44.99 |
| Equity Weighting | 55.01 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 205.08 | 275.57 | 202.14 | 342.92 | 458.46 | 585.75 | 748.38 | 956.16 | 1,221.64 | 1,560.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 115.81 | 37.45 | -403.12 | 8.10 | 96.04 | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -124.24 | -158.74 | -202.81 | -259.13 | -331.07 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.14% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -124.17 | -158.64 | -202.69 | -258.97 | -330.87 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.13 | 2.24 | -61.07 | 11.51 | -18.38 | -27.44 | -35.06 | -44.79 | -57.23 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.80 | -7.51 | 33.02 | 4.60 | -9.33 | 8.08 | 10.32 | 13.18 | 16.84 |
| Capital Expenditure | -112.40 | -73.79 | -35.89 | -29.83 | -34.82 | -135.46 | -173.07 | -221.13 | -282.52 | -360.97 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -287.34 | -351.08 | -448.56 | -573.10 | -732.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -257.47 | -281.89 | -322.72 | -369.47 | -422.98 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,654.54 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.60 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -746.87 |
| Terminal Value | -7,779.87 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,494.19 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,148.73 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 209.19 |
| Equity Value | -6,357.92 |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.46 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -165.31 |