Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)

$7.22

+0.07 (+0.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -162.56 | 7.22 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 205.08275.57202.14342.92458.46585.75748.38956.161,221.641,560.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 115.8137.45-403.128.1096.04-124.24-158.74-202.81-259.13-331.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT ------124.24-158.74-202.81-259.13-331.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 11.3415.2411.1818.9625.3532.3941.3952.8867.5686.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.0133.1530.9091.9780.4598.83126.28161.34206.13263.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.518.310.8033.8238.4129.0837.1647.4860.6677.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -112.40-73.79-35.89-29.83-34.82-135.46-173.07-221.13-282.52-360.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.22
Beta 2.483
Diluted Shares Outstanding 38.46
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.530
Total Debt 209.19
Total Equity 277.68
Total Capital 486.87
Debt Weighting 42.97
Equity Weighting 57.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 205.08275.57202.14342.92458.46585.75748.38956.161,221.641,560.83
EBITDA 115.8137.45-403.128.1096.04-124.24-158.74-202.81-259.13-331.07
EBIT ------124.24-158.74-202.81-259.13-331.07
Tax Rate 0.00%0.14%-0.02%0.00%0.19%0.06%0.06%0.06%0.06%0.06%
EBIAT ------124.17-158.64-202.69-258.97-330.87
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --7.132.24-61.0711.51-18.38-27.44-35.06-44.79-57.23
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.80-7.5133.024.60-9.338.0810.3213.1816.84
Capital Expenditure -112.40-73.79-35.89-29.83-34.82-135.46-173.07-221.13-282.52-360.97
UFCF ------287.34-351.08-448.56-573.10-732.22
WACC
PV UFCF -257.13-281.13-321.42-367.49-420.15
SUM PV UFCF -1,647.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) -746.87
Terminal Value -7,660.18
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,395.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,042.75
Net Debt 209.19
Equity Value -6,251.95
Shares Outstanding 38.46
Equity Value Per Share -162.56