Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF)

$45.91

-0.90 (-1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 100.24 | 45.91 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 375.21377.75370.37339.50316.01302.95290.43278.43266.93255.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 83.2288.58116.46107.9380.4781.3978.0374.8071.7168.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 82.2487.58115.52106.9279.4580.5477.2174.0270.9668.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.9810.941.011.020.850.810.780.750.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 546.92533.31541.51521.93469.92445.70427.28409.62392.70376.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 276.76284.68263.60271.84270.16233.79224.13214.87205.99197.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 37.0838.6140.0938.8837.8832.9431.5830.2729.0227.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.48-1.13-1.02-0.92-1.30-0.84-0.80-0.77-0.74-0.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 45.91
Beta 0.247
Diluted Shares Outstanding 19.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.024
Total Debt -
Total Equity 888.99
Total Capital 888.99
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 375.21377.75370.37339.50316.01302.95290.43278.43266.93255.90
EBITDA 83.2288.58116.46107.9380.4781.3978.0374.8071.7168.75
EBIT 82.2487.58115.52106.9279.4580.5477.2174.0270.9668.03
Tax Rate 43.79%18.21%19.76%19.00%17.23%23.60%23.60%23.60%23.60%23.60%
EBIAT 46.2371.6392.6986.6065.7661.5358.9956.5554.2251.98
Depreciation 0.9810.941.011.020.850.810.780.750.72
Accounts Receivable --7.9221.09-8.241.6836.369.669.268.888.51
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.531.48-1.21-1-4.94-1.36-1.31-1.25-1.20
Capital Expenditure -0.48-1.13-1.02-0.92-1.30-0.84-0.80-0.77-0.74-0.71
UFCF 46.7465.12115.1877.2466.1692.9767.3064.5261.8559.30
WACC
PV UFCF 88.5261.0255.7050.8546.42
SUM PV UFCF 302.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 60.48
Terminal Value 2,002.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,567.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,870.27
Net Debt -70.72
Equity Value 1,940.99
Shares Outstanding 19.36
Equity Value Per Share 100.24