Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)
$31.8
+1.49 (+4.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,590.11 | 3,623.07 | 3,125.38 | 3,712.77 | 3,697.75 | 3,749.25 | 3,801.47 | 3,854.42 | 3,908.10 | 3,962.53 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 312.92 | 250.26 | 144.20 | 483.91 | 217.32 | 293.55 | 297.64 | 301.79 | 305.99 | 310.25 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 134.89 | 76.64 | -22.08 | 339.88 | 85.08 | 124.63 | 126.37 | 128.13 | 129.91 | 131.72 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 178.03 | 173.63 | 166.28 | 144.04 | 132.24 | 168.92 | 171.27 | 173.66 | 176.08 | 178.53 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 723.14 | 671.27 | 1,104.86 | 823.14 | 517.60 | 826.26 | 837.76 | 849.43 | 861.26 | 873.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 73.11 | 80.25 | 83.86 | 69.10 | 104.51 | 87.15 | 88.36 | 89.59 | 90.84 | 92.10 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 437.88 | 434.33 | 404.05 | 525.86 | 505.62 | 487.03 | 493.81 | 500.69 | 507.66 | 514.73 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 226.88 | 219.92 | 289.40 | 374.83 | 258.90 | 290.54 | 294.58 | 298.69 | 302.85 | 307.07 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -152.39 | -202.78 | -101.91 | -96.98 | -164.57 | -151.21 | -153.31 | -155.45 | -157.61 | -159.81 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 31.8 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.470 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 52.33 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 95.80 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.09% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.628 |
Total Debt | 1,224.19 |
Total Equity | 1,664 |
Total Capital | 2,888.19 |
Debt Weighting | 42.39 |
Equity Weighting | 57.61 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,590.11 | 3,623.07 | 3,125.38 | 3,712.77 | 3,697.75 | 3,749.25 | 3,801.47 | 3,854.42 | 3,908.10 | 3,962.53 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 312.92 | 250.26 | 144.20 | 483.91 | 217.32 | 293.55 | 297.64 | 301.79 | 305.99 | 310.25 |
EBIT | 134.89 | 76.64 | -22.08 | 339.88 | 85.08 | 124.63 | 126.37 | 128.13 | 129.91 | 131.72 |
Tax Rate | 35.94% | 36.86% | -133.92% | 14.88% | 95.80% | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% |
EBIAT | 86.40 | 48.39 | -51.66 | 289.31 | 3.58 | 112.28 | 113.84 | 115.43 | 117.04 | 118.67 |
Depreciation | 178.03 | 173.63 | 166.28 | 144.04 | 132.24 | 168.92 | 171.27 | 173.66 | 176.08 | 178.53 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -7.14 | -3.61 | 14.75 | -35.40 | 17.36 | -1.21 | -1.23 | -1.25 | -1.27 |
Inventories | - | 3.55 | 30.27 | -121.81 | 20.24 | 18.59 | -6.78 | -6.88 | -6.97 | -7.07 |
Accounts Payable | - | -6.96 | 69.48 | 85.43 | -115.93 | 31.64 | 4.05 | 4.10 | 4.16 | 4.22 |
Capital Expenditure | -152.39 | -202.78 | -101.91 | -96.98 | -164.57 | -151.21 | -153.31 | -155.45 | -157.61 | -159.81 |
UFCF | 112.04 | 8.69 | 108.86 | 314.75 | -159.84 | 197.59 | 127.85 | 129.63 | 131.44 | 133.27 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 186.12 | 113.45 | 108.35 | 103.49 | 98.84 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 610.25 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.16 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 135.94 |
Terminal Value | 3,267.69 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,423.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,033.71 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 706.59 |
Equity Value | 2,327.12 |
Shares Outstanding | 52.33 |
Equity Value Per Share | 44.47 |