Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)
$25.31
-0.52 (-2.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,590.11 | 3,623.07 | 3,125.38 | 3,712.77 | 3,697.75 | 3,749.25 | 3,801.47 | 3,854.42 | 3,908.10 | 3,962.53 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 312.92 | 250.26 | 144.20 | 483.91 | 85.08 | 266.74 | 270.45 | 274.22 | 278.04 | 281.91 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 134.89 | 76.64 | -22.08 | 339.88 | -90.11 | 89.11 | 90.35 | 91.61 | 92.88 | 94.18 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 178.03 | 173.63 | 166.28 | 144.04 | 175.19 | 177.63 | 180.10 | 182.61 | 185.15 | 187.73 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 723.14 | 671.27 | 1,104.86 | 823.14 | 517.60 | 826.26 | 837.76 | 849.43 | 861.26 | 873.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 73.11 | 80.25 | 83.86 | 69.10 | 104.51 | 87.15 | 88.36 | 89.59 | 90.84 | 92.10 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 437.88 | 434.33 | 404.05 | 525.86 | 505.62 | 487.03 | 493.81 | 500.69 | 507.66 | 514.73 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 226.88 | 219.92 | 289.40 | 374.83 | 258.90 | 290.54 | 294.58 | 298.69 | 302.85 | 307.07 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -152.39 | -202.78 | -101.91 | -96.98 | -164.57 | -151.21 | -153.31 | -155.45 | -157.61 | -159.81 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 25.31 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.449 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 62.64 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 95.80 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.09% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.339 |
Total Debt | 1,224.19 |
Total Equity | 1,585.32 |
Total Capital | 2,809.51 |
Debt Weighting | 43.57 |
Equity Weighting | 56.43 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,590.11 | 3,623.07 | 3,125.38 | 3,712.77 | 3,697.75 | 3,749.25 | 3,801.47 | 3,854.42 | 3,908.10 | 3,962.53 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 312.92 | 250.26 | 144.20 | 483.91 | 85.08 | 266.74 | 270.45 | 274.22 | 278.04 | 281.91 |
EBIT | 134.89 | 76.64 | -22.08 | 339.88 | -90.11 | 89.11 | 90.35 | 91.61 | 92.88 | 94.18 |
Tax Rate | 35.94% | 36.86% | -133.92% | 14.88% | 95.80% | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% |
EBIAT | 86.40 | 48.39 | -51.66 | 289.31 | -3.79 | 80.28 | 81.39 | 82.53 | 83.68 | 84.84 |
Depreciation | 178.03 | 173.63 | 166.28 | 144.04 | 175.19 | 177.63 | 180.10 | 182.61 | 185.15 | 187.73 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -7.14 | -3.61 | 14.75 | -35.40 | 17.36 | -1.21 | -1.23 | -1.25 | -1.27 |
Inventories | - | 3.55 | 30.27 | -121.81 | 20.24 | 18.59 | -6.78 | -6.88 | -6.97 | -7.07 |
Accounts Payable | - | -6.96 | 69.48 | 85.43 | -115.93 | 31.64 | 4.05 | 4.10 | 4.16 | 4.22 |
Capital Expenditure | -152.39 | -202.78 | -101.91 | -96.98 | -164.57 | -151.21 | -153.31 | -155.45 | -157.61 | -159.81 |
UFCF | 112.04 | 8.69 | 108.86 | 314.75 | -124.26 | 174.29 | 104.23 | 105.68 | 107.16 | 108.65 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 164.63 | 93 | 89.06 | 85.30 | 81.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 513.67 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.87 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 110.82 |
Terminal Value | 2,863.62 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,153.03 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,666.70 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 706.59 |
Equity Value | 1,960.11 |
Shares Outstanding | 62.64 |
Equity Value Per Share | 31.29 |