Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)

$25.31

-0.52 (-2.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 31.29 | 25.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,590.113,623.073,125.383,712.773,697.753,749.253,801.473,854.423,908.103,962.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 312.92250.26144.20483.9185.08266.74270.45274.22278.04281.91
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 134.8976.64-22.08339.88-90.1189.1190.3591.6192.8894.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 178.03173.63166.28144.04175.19177.63180.10182.61185.15187.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 723.14671.271,104.86823.14517.60826.26837.76849.43861.26873.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 73.1180.2583.8669.10104.5187.1588.3689.5990.8492.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 437.88434.33404.05525.86505.62487.03493.81500.69507.66514.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 226.88219.92289.40374.83258.90290.54294.58298.69302.85307.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -152.39-202.78-101.91-96.98-164.57-151.21-153.31-155.45-157.61-159.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.31
Beta 1.449
Diluted Shares Outstanding 62.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 95.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.339
Total Debt 1,224.19
Total Equity 1,585.32
Total Capital 2,809.51
Debt Weighting 43.57
Equity Weighting 56.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,590.113,623.073,125.383,712.773,697.753,749.253,801.473,854.423,908.103,962.53
EBITDA 312.92250.26144.20483.9185.08266.74270.45274.22278.04281.91
EBIT 134.8976.64-22.08339.88-90.1189.1190.3591.6192.8894.18
Tax Rate 35.94%36.86%-133.92%14.88%95.80%9.91%9.91%9.91%9.91%9.91%
EBIAT 86.4048.39-51.66289.31-3.7980.2881.3982.5383.6884.84
Depreciation 178.03173.63166.28144.04175.19177.63180.10182.61185.15187.73
Accounts Receivable --7.14-3.6114.75-35.4017.36-1.21-1.23-1.25-1.27
Inventories -3.5530.27-121.8120.2418.59-6.78-6.88-6.97-7.07
Accounts Payable --6.9669.4885.43-115.9331.644.054.104.164.22
Capital Expenditure -152.39-202.78-101.91-96.98-164.57-151.21-153.31-155.45-157.61-159.81
UFCF 112.048.69108.86314.75-124.26174.29104.23105.68107.16108.65
WACC
PV UFCF 164.639389.0685.3081.69
SUM PV UFCF 513.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) 110.82
Terminal Value 2,863.62
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,153.03

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,666.70
Net Debt 706.59
Equity Value 1,960.11
Shares Outstanding 62.64
Equity Value Per Share 31.29