Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AnPac Bio-Medical Science Co., Ltd. (ANPC)

$0.2737

-0.01 (-4.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -57.81 | 0.2737 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.911.641.743.282.884.055.708.0211.2815.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -5.83-6.11-15.36-12.21-17.87-23.42-32.96-46.38-65.27-91.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -6.20-6.61-15.79-12.71-18.50-24.49-34.47-48.50-68.25-96.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.370.500.430.500.631.071.512.122.994.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1.832.060.980.481.483.645.127.2010.1314.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.360.480.301.451.131.381.942.723.835.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.040.010.050.050.080.100.140.190.270.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.390.260.290.340.440.821.151.622.283.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.42-0.46-0.51-0.40-0.64-1.11-1.56-2.20-3.10-4.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.2,737
Beta 1.568
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.289
Total Debt 5.40
Total Equity 3.72
Total Capital 9.13
Debt Weighting 59.19
Equity Weighting 40.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.911.641.743.282.884.055.708.0211.2815.88
EBITDA -5.83-6.11-15.36-12.21-17.87-23.42-32.96-46.38-65.27-91.85
EBIT -6.20-6.61-15.79-12.71-18.50-24.49-34.47-48.50-68.25-96.05
Tax Rate 0.60%1.02%0.76%0.22%2.12%0.94%0.94%0.94%0.94%0.94%
EBIAT -6.16-6.55-15.67-12.68-18.11-24.26-34.14-48.05-67.61-95.14
Depreciation 0.370.500.430.500.631.071.512.122.994.20
Accounts Receivable --0.120.19-1.160.32-0.25-0.56-0.79-1.11-1.56
Inventories -0.03-0.040-0.03-0.02-0.04-0.06-0.08-0.11
Accounts Payable --0.130.030.050.100.380.330.470.660.93
Capital Expenditure -0.42-0.46-0.51-0.40-0.64-1.11-1.56-2.20-3.10-4.36
UFCF -6.21-6.73-15.57-13.69-17.73-24.19-34.47-48.50-68.25-96.04
WACC
PV UFCF -21.69-27.72-34.99-44.16-55.73
SUM PV UFCF -184.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) -97.96
Terminal Value -1,031.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -598.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -782.64
Net Debt 3.92
Equity Value -786.56
Shares Outstanding 13.61
Equity Value Per Share -57.81