Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS)

$55.82

+1.69 (+3.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 48.60 | 55.82 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,996.703,187.902,992.702,895.303,538.903,709.053,887.384,074.284,270.174,475.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 601638.10561.40531.20707.80720.88755.54791.86829.93869.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 530.90566.20483.10451.20629.90630.56660.88692.65725.95760.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 70.1071.9078.308077.9090.3294.6699.21103.98108.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 820645551.40689.60631.40798.79837.19877.44919.63963.84
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 598.40647.30589.50585634.40727.74762.73799.40837.83878.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 291.20304.70303300.10447.70388.83407.52427.11447.65469.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 535543.80509.60595.20745.90694.14727.51762.49799.15837.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -94.20-85.20-64.40-56.80-75.10-89.40-93.70-98.21-102.93-107.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 55.82
Beta 1.147
Diluted Shares Outstanding 162.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.539
Total Debt 219
Total Equity 9,076.56
Total Capital 9,295.56
Debt Weighting 2.36
Equity Weighting 97.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,996.703,187.902,992.702,895.303,538.903,709.053,887.384,074.284,270.174,475.48
EBITDA 601638.10561.40531.20707.80720.88755.54791.86829.93869.84
EBIT 530.90566.20483.10451.20629.90630.56660.88692.65725.95760.86
Tax Rate 43.07%20.37%21.63%22.30%22.14%25.90%25.90%25.90%25.90%25.90%
EBIAT 302.25450.89378.62350.57490.45467.24489.71513.25537.93563.79
Depreciation 70.1071.9078.308077.9090.3294.6699.21103.98108.98
Accounts Receivable --48.9057.804.50-49.40-93.34-34.99-36.67-38.43-40.28
Inventories --13.501.702.90-147.6058.87-18.69-19.59-20.54-21.52
Accounts Payable -8.80-34.2085.60150.70-51.7633.3734.9836.6638.42
Capital Expenditure -94.20-85.20-64.40-56.80-75.10-89.40-93.70-98.21-102.93-107.88
UFCF 278.15383.99417.82466.77446.95381.93470.36492.97516.67541.51
WACC
PV UFCF 352.44400.51387.34374.61362.30
SUM PV UFCF 1,877.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) 552.34
Terminal Value 8,671.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,801.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,678.49
Net Debt -224.30
Equity Value 7,902.79
Shares Outstanding 162.60
Equity Value Per Share 48.60