Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
APA Corporation (APA)
$34.51
+0.50 (+1.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,348 | 6,315 | 4,435 | 7,985 | 11,075 | 13,149.18 | 15,611.83 | 18,535.69 | 22,007.15 | 26,128.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,249 | -2,448 | -4,294 | 3,483 | 6,967 | -317.19 | -376.59 | -447.12 | -530.86 | -630.28 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,109 | -2,568.32 | -4,378.50 | 3,330.86 | 6,755.99 | -567.71 | -674.04 | -800.28 | -950.16 | -1,128.11 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 140 | 120.32 | 84.50 | 152.14 | 211.01 | 250.53 | 297.45 | 353.16 | 419.30 | 497.83 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 714 | 247 | 262 | 302 | 245 | 671.40 | 797.14 | 946.44 | 1,123.69 | 1,334.14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,194 | 1,062 | 908 | 1,394 | 1,965.75 | 2,333.90 | 2,771.01 | 3,289.98 | 3,906.14 | 4,637.70 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 401 | 502 | 492 | 473 | 842.36 | 1,000.12 | 1,187.43 | 1,409.81 | 1,673.85 | 1,987.34 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 709 | 695 | 444 | 731 | 1,102.53 | 1,309.01 | 1,554.17 | 1,845.24 | 2,190.83 | 2,601.14 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,904 | -2,961 | -1,302 | -1,113 | -1,807 | -4,198.02 | -4,984.25 | -5,917.72 | -7,026.02 | -8,341.89 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 34.51 |
---|---|
Beta | 3.515 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 333 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.28 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.69% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 19.969 |
Total Debt | 5,453 |
Total Equity | 11,491.83 |
Total Capital | 16,944.83 |
Debt Weighting | 32.18 |
Equity Weighting | 67.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,348 | 6,315 | 4,435 | 7,985 | 11,075 | 13,149.18 | 15,611.83 | 18,535.69 | 22,007.15 | 26,128.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,249 | -2,448 | -4,294 | 3,483 | 6,967 | -317.19 | -376.59 | -447.12 | -530.86 | -630.28 |
EBIT | 1,109 | -2,568.32 | -4,378.50 | 3,330.86 | 6,755.99 | -567.71 | -674.04 | -800.28 | -950.16 | -1,128.11 |
Tax Rate | 95.82% | -16.86% | 1.16% | 39.98% | 26.28% | 29.28% | 29.28% | 29.28% | 29.28% | 29.28% |
EBIAT | 46.30 | -3,001.21 | -4,327.84 | 1,999.22 | 4,980.39 | -401.50 | -476.70 | -565.98 | -671.97 | -797.82 |
Depreciation | 140 | 120.32 | 84.50 | 152.14 | 211.01 | 250.53 | 297.45 | 353.16 | 419.30 | 497.83 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 132 | 154 | -486 | -571.75 | -368.16 | -437.11 | -518.97 | -616.16 | -731.56 |
Inventories | - | -101 | 10 | 19 | -369.36 | -157.76 | -187.31 | -222.39 | -264.04 | -313.49 |
Accounts Payable | - | -14 | -251 | 287 | 371.53 | 206.49 | 245.16 | 291.07 | 345.59 | 410.31 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,904 | -2,961 | -1,302 | -1,113 | -1,807 | -4,198.02 | -4,984.25 | -5,917.72 | -7,026.02 | -8,341.89 |
UFCF | -3,717.70 | -5,824.89 | -5,632.34 | 858.36 | 2,814.82 | -4,668.42 | -5,542.75 | -6,580.82 | -7,813.31 | -9,276.63 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -4,069.05 | -4,210.86 | -4,357.62 | -4,509.49 | -4,666.65 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -21,813.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 14.73 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -9,462.16 |
Terminal Value | -74,329.64 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -37,391.86 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -59,205.54 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,208 |
Equity Value | -64,413.54 |
Shares Outstanding | 333 |
Equity Value Per Share | -193.43 |