Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

APA Corporation (APA)

$33.41

+0.11 (+0.33%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -172.25 | 33.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,348	6,315	4,435	7,985	11,075	13,149.18	15,611.83	18,535.69	22,007.15	26,128.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,249	-2,448	-2,522	3,483	6,803	694.62	824.71	979.17	1,162.55	1,380.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,109	-2,568.32	-2,606.50	3,330.86	6,591.99	444.09	527.26	626.01	743.25	882.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	140	120.32	84.50	152.14	211.01	250.53	297.45	353.16	419.30	497.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	714	247	262	302	245	671.40	797.14	946.44	1,123.69	1,334.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,194	1,062	908	1,394	1,466	2,215.23	2,630.11	3,122.70	3,707.53	4,401.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	401	502	492	473	427	901.49	1,070.33	1,270.78	1,508.78	1,791.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	709	695	444	731	771	1,230.29	1,460.70	1,734.27	2,059.08	2,444.71
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,904	-2,961	-1,302	-1,113	-2,398	-4,338.36	-5,150.87	-6,115.55	-7,260.90	-8,620.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 33.41
Beta	3.526
Diluted Shares Outstanding	333
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	37.15
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	20.453
Total Debt	5,620
Total Equity	11,125.53
Total Capital	16,745.53
Debt Weighting	33.56
Equity Weighting	66.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,348	6,315	4,435	7,985	11,075	13,149.18	15,611.83	18,535.69	22,007.15	26,128.76
EBITDA	1,249	-2,448	-2,522	3,483	6,803	694.62	824.71	979.17	1,162.55	1,380.28
EBIT	1,109	-2,568.32	-2,606.50	3,330.86	6,591.99	444.09	527.26	626.01	743.25	882.45
Tax Rate	95.82%	-16.86%	1.16%	39.98%	37.15%	31.45%	31.45%	31.45%	31.45%	31.45%
EBIAT	46.30	-3,001.21	-2,576.34	1,999.22	4,143.27	304.42	361.44	429.13	509.50	604.92
Depreciation	140	120.32	84.50	152.14	211.01	250.53	297.45	353.16	419.30	497.83
Accounts Receivable	-	132	154	-486	-72	-749.23	-414.88	-492.58	-584.83	-694.36
Inventories	-	-101	10	19	46	-474.49	-168.84	-200.46	-238	-282.57
Accounts Payable	-	-14	-251	287	40	459.29	230.41	273.57	324.80	385.63
Capital Expenditure	-3,904	-2,961	-1,302	-1,113	-2,398	-4,338.36	-5,150.87	-6,115.55	-7,260.90	-8,620.76
UFCF	-3,717.70	-5,824.89	-3,880.84	858.36	1,970.28	-4,547.84	-4,845.28	-5,752.73	-6,830.13	-8,109.32
WACC
PV UFCF						-3,962.57	-3,678.43	-3,805.30	-3,936.55	-4,072.32
SUM PV UFCF										-19,455.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	14.77
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-8,271.50
Terminal Value	-64,772.92
Present Value of Terminal Value	-32,527.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-51,982.74
Net Debt	5,375
Equity Value	-57,357.74
Shares Outstanding	333
Equity Value Per Share	-172.25