Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

APA Corporation (APA)

$34.51

+0.50 (+1.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -193.43 | 34.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,3486,3154,4357,98511,07513,149.1815,611.8318,535.6922,007.1526,128.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,249-2,448-4,2943,4836,967-317.19-376.59-447.12-530.86-630.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,109-2,568.32-4,378.503,330.866,755.99-567.71-674.04-800.28-950.16-1,128.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 140120.3284.50152.14211.01250.53297.45353.16419.30497.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 714247262302245671.40797.14946.441,123.691,334.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,1941,0629081,3941,965.752,333.902,771.013,289.983,906.144,637.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 401502492473842.361,000.121,187.431,409.811,673.851,987.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7096954447311,102.531,309.011,554.171,845.242,190.832,601.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,904-2,961-1,302-1,113-1,807-4,198.02-4,984.25-5,917.72-7,026.02-8,341.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.51
Beta 3.515
Diluted Shares Outstanding 333
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.969
Total Debt 5,453
Total Equity 11,491.83
Total Capital 16,944.83
Debt Weighting 32.18
Equity Weighting 67.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,3486,3154,4357,98511,07513,149.1815,611.8318,535.6922,007.1526,128.76
EBITDA 1,249-2,448-4,2943,4836,967-317.19-376.59-447.12-530.86-630.28
EBIT 1,109-2,568.32-4,378.503,330.866,755.99-567.71-674.04-800.28-950.16-1,128.11
Tax Rate 95.82%-16.86%1.16%39.98%26.28%29.28%29.28%29.28%29.28%29.28%
EBIAT 46.30-3,001.21-4,327.841,999.224,980.39-401.50-476.70-565.98-671.97-797.82
Depreciation 140120.3284.50152.14211.01250.53297.45353.16419.30497.83
Accounts Receivable -132154-486-571.75-368.16-437.11-518.97-616.16-731.56
Inventories --1011019-369.36-157.76-187.31-222.39-264.04-313.49
Accounts Payable --14-251287371.53206.49245.16291.07345.59410.31
Capital Expenditure -3,904-2,961-1,302-1,113-1,807-4,198.02-4,984.25-5,917.72-7,026.02-8,341.89
UFCF -3,717.70-5,824.89-5,632.34858.362,814.82-4,668.42-5,542.75-6,580.82-7,813.31-9,276.63
WACC
PV UFCF -4,069.05-4,210.86-4,357.62-4,509.49-4,666.65
SUM PV UFCF -21,813.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) -9,462.16
Terminal Value -74,329.64
Present Value of Terminal Value -37,391.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -59,205.54
Net Debt 5,208
Equity Value -64,413.54
Shares Outstanding 333
Equity Value Per Share -193.43