Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

APA Corporation (APA)

$33.41

+0.11 (+0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -172.25 | 33.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,3486,3154,4357,98511,07513,149.1815,611.8318,535.6922,007.1526,128.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,249-2,448-2,5223,4836,803694.62824.71979.171,162.551,380.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,109-2,568.32-2,606.503,330.866,591.99444.09527.26626.01743.25882.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 140120.3284.50152.14211.01250.53297.45353.16419.30497.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 714247262302245671.40797.14946.441,123.691,334.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,1941,0629081,3941,4662,215.232,630.113,122.703,707.534,401.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 401502492473427901.491,070.331,270.781,508.781,791.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7096954447317711,230.291,460.701,734.272,059.082,444.71
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,904-2,961-1,302-1,113-2,398-4,338.36-5,150.87-6,115.55-7,260.90-8,620.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 33.41
Beta 3.526
Diluted Shares Outstanding 333
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 37.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.453
Total Debt 5,620
Total Equity 11,125.53
Total Capital 16,745.53
Debt Weighting 33.56
Equity Weighting 66.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,3486,3154,4357,98511,07513,149.1815,611.8318,535.6922,007.1526,128.76
EBITDA 1,249-2,448-2,5223,4836,803694.62824.71979.171,162.551,380.28
EBIT 1,109-2,568.32-2,606.503,330.866,591.99444.09527.26626.01743.25882.45
Tax Rate 95.82%-16.86%1.16%39.98%37.15%31.45%31.45%31.45%31.45%31.45%
EBIAT 46.30-3,001.21-2,576.341,999.224,143.27304.42361.44429.13509.50604.92
Depreciation 140120.3284.50152.14211.01250.53297.45353.16419.30497.83
Accounts Receivable -132154-486-72-749.23-414.88-492.58-584.83-694.36
Inventories --101101946-474.49-168.84-200.46-238-282.57
Accounts Payable --14-25128740459.29230.41273.57324.80385.63
Capital Expenditure -3,904-2,961-1,302-1,113-2,398-4,338.36-5,150.87-6,115.55-7,260.90-8,620.76
UFCF -3,717.70-5,824.89-3,880.84858.361,970.28-4,547.84-4,845.28-5,752.73-6,830.13-8,109.32
WACC
PV UFCF -3,962.57-3,678.43-3,805.30-3,936.55-4,072.32
SUM PV UFCF -19,455.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8,271.50
Terminal Value -64,772.92
Present Value of Terminal Value -32,527.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -51,982.74
Net Debt 5,375
Equity Value -57,357.74
Shares Outstanding 333
Equity Value Per Share -172.25