Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
APA Corporation (APA)
$33.41
+0.11 (+0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,348 | 6,315 | 4,435 | 7,985 | 11,075 | 13,149.18 | 15,611.83 | 18,535.69 | 22,007.15 | 26,128.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,249 | -2,448 | -2,522 | 3,483 | 6,803 | 694.62 | 824.71 | 979.17 | 1,162.55 | 1,380.28 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,109 | -2,568.32 | -2,606.50 | 3,330.86 | 6,591.99 | 444.09 | 527.26 | 626.01 | 743.25 | 882.45 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 140 | 120.32 | 84.50 | 152.14 | 211.01 | 250.53 | 297.45 | 353.16 | 419.30 | 497.83 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 714 | 247 | 262 | 302 | 245 | 671.40 | 797.14 | 946.44 | 1,123.69 | 1,334.14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,194 | 1,062 | 908 | 1,394 | 1,466 | 2,215.23 | 2,630.11 | 3,122.70 | 3,707.53 | 4,401.89 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 401 | 502 | 492 | 473 | 427 | 901.49 | 1,070.33 | 1,270.78 | 1,508.78 | 1,791.35 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 709 | 695 | 444 | 731 | 771 | 1,230.29 | 1,460.70 | 1,734.27 | 2,059.08 | 2,444.71 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,904 | -2,961 | -1,302 | -1,113 | -2,398 | -4,338.36 | -5,150.87 | -6,115.55 | -7,260.90 | -8,620.76 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 33.41 |
---|---|
Beta | 3.526 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 333 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 37.15 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.51% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 20.453 |
Total Debt | 5,620 |
Total Equity | 11,125.53 |
Total Capital | 16,745.53 |
Debt Weighting | 33.56 |
Equity Weighting | 66.44 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,348 | 6,315 | 4,435 | 7,985 | 11,075 | 13,149.18 | 15,611.83 | 18,535.69 | 22,007.15 | 26,128.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,249 | -2,448 | -2,522 | 3,483 | 6,803 | 694.62 | 824.71 | 979.17 | 1,162.55 | 1,380.28 |
EBIT | 1,109 | -2,568.32 | -2,606.50 | 3,330.86 | 6,591.99 | 444.09 | 527.26 | 626.01 | 743.25 | 882.45 |
Tax Rate | 95.82% | -16.86% | 1.16% | 39.98% | 37.15% | 31.45% | 31.45% | 31.45% | 31.45% | 31.45% |
EBIAT | 46.30 | -3,001.21 | -2,576.34 | 1,999.22 | 4,143.27 | 304.42 | 361.44 | 429.13 | 509.50 | 604.92 |
Depreciation | 140 | 120.32 | 84.50 | 152.14 | 211.01 | 250.53 | 297.45 | 353.16 | 419.30 | 497.83 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 132 | 154 | -486 | -72 | -749.23 | -414.88 | -492.58 | -584.83 | -694.36 |
Inventories | - | -101 | 10 | 19 | 46 | -474.49 | -168.84 | -200.46 | -238 | -282.57 |
Accounts Payable | - | -14 | -251 | 287 | 40 | 459.29 | 230.41 | 273.57 | 324.80 | 385.63 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,904 | -2,961 | -1,302 | -1,113 | -2,398 | -4,338.36 | -5,150.87 | -6,115.55 | -7,260.90 | -8,620.76 |
UFCF | -3,717.70 | -5,824.89 | -3,880.84 | 858.36 | 1,970.28 | -4,547.84 | -4,845.28 | -5,752.73 | -6,830.13 | -8,109.32 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -3,962.57 | -3,678.43 | -3,805.30 | -3,936.55 | -4,072.32 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -19,455.17 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 14.77 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -8,271.50 |
Terminal Value | -64,772.92 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -32,527.56 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -51,982.74 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,375 |
Equity Value | -57,357.74 |
Shares Outstanding | 333 |
Equity Value Per Share | -172.25 |