Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

APA Corporation (APA)

$30.41

+0.62 (+2.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -16.41 | 30.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 6,3154,4357,98511,0758,2799,597.9711,127.0812,899.8014,954.9317,337.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4101732,9205,2304,9222,949.213,419.063,963.774,595.265,327.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2,270-1,5991,5603,9973,382469.86544.71631.50732.10848.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,6801,7721,3601,2331,5402,479.352,874.353,332.273,863.164,478.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 24726230224587323.72375.29435.08504.40584.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,0629081,3941,4661,6101,678.341,945.732,255.712,615.083,031.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 502492473427453658.30763.18884.761,025.721,189.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 695444731771658865.371,003.241,163.071,348.361,563.18
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,961-1,302-1,113-2,398-2,357-2,693.31-3,122.40-3,619.85-4,196.55-4,865.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.41
Beta 3.312
Diluted Shares Outstanding 309
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.792
Total Debt 5,304
Total Equity 9,396.69
Total Capital 14,700.69
Debt Weighting 36.08
Equity Weighting 63.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 6,3154,4357,98511,0758,2799,597.9711,127.0812,899.8014,954.9317,337.49
EBITDA 4101732,9205,2304,9222,949.213,419.063,963.774,595.265,327.36
EBIT -2,270-1,5991,5603,9973,382469.86544.71631.50732.10848.74
Tax Rate -22.41%-1.32%39.98%37.15%0.97%10.87%10.87%10.87%10.87%10.87%
EBIAT -2,778.64-1,620.14936.332,512.243,349.15418.77485.49562.83652.50756.45
Depreciation 2,6801,7721,3601,2331,5402,479.352,874.353,332.273,863.164,478.62
Accounts Receivable -154-486-72-144-68.34-267.39-309.98-359.37-416.62
Inventories -101946-26-205.30-104.88-121.59-140.96-163.41
Accounts Payable --25128740-113207.37137.87159.83185.30214.82
Capital Expenditure -2,961-1,302-1,113-2,398-2,357-2,693.31-3,122.40-3,619.85-4,196.55-4,865.12
UFCF -3,059.64-1,237.141,003.331,361.242,249.15138.533.033.524.084.73
WACC
PV UFCF 120.612.302.322.342.36
SUM PV UFCF 129.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.75
Terminal Value 33.09
Present Value of Terminal Value 16.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 146.49
Net Debt 5,217
Equity Value -5,070.51
Shares Outstanding 309
Equity Value Per Share -16.41