Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

APA Corporation (APA)

$34.19

-0.76 (-2.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -154.32 | 34.19 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,8877,3486,3154,4357,9859,203.3910,607.6812,226.2514,091.7916,241.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2691,249-2,448-4,2943,483-983.15-1,133.17-1,306.07-1,505.36-1,735.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,1251,109-2,585.39-4,390.493,309.27-1,183.39-1,363.95-1,572.07-1,811.95-2,088.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 144140137.3996.49173.73200.24230.79266306.59353.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,668714247262302950.741,095.811,263.011,455.721,677.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,3451,1941,0629081,3941,727.381,990.952,294.742,644.883,048.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 368401502492473675.07778.07896.791,033.631,191.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 641709695444731933.381,075.811,239.961,429.151,647.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,760-3,904-2,961-1,302-1,113-3,500.92-4,035.11-4,650.80-5,360.45-6,178.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.19
Beta 3.814
Diluted Shares Outstanding 378
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 39.98
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 21.805
Total Debt 7,609
Total Equity 12,923.82
Total Capital 20,532.82
Debt Weighting 37.06
Equity Weighting 62.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,8877,3486,3154,4357,9859,203.3910,607.6812,226.2514,091.7916,241.98
EBITDA 1,2691,249-2,448-4,2943,483-983.15-1,133.17-1,306.07-1,505.36-1,735.05
EBIT 1,1251,109-2,585.39-4,390.493,309.27-1,183.39-1,363.95-1,572.07-1,811.95-2,088.42
Tax Rate -42.05%95.82%-16.86%1.16%39.98%15.61%15.61%15.61%15.61%15.61%
EBIAT 1,598.0446.30-3,021.16-4,339.691,986.26-998.64-1,151.02-1,326.65-1,529.08-1,762.39
Depreciation 144140137.3996.49173.73200.24230.79266306.59353.37
Accounts Receivable -151132154-486-333.38-263.57-303.79-350.14-403.57
Inventories --33-1011019-202.07-103-118.72-136.84-157.72
Accounts Payable -68-14-251287202.38142.42164.15189.20218.07
Capital Expenditure -2,760-3,904-2,961-1,302-1,113-3,500.92-4,035.11-4,650.80-5,360.45-6,178.37
UFCF -1,017.96-3,531.70-5,827.77-5,632.20866.99-4,632.39-5,179.50-5,969.81-6,880.71-7,930.60
WACC
PV UFCF -4,030.97-3,921.90-3,933.45-3,945.03-3,956.65
SUM PV UFCF -19,788

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8,089.21
Terminal Value -62,610
Present Value of Terminal Value -31,236.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -51,024.73
Net Debt 7,307
Equity Value -58,331.73
Shares Outstanding 378
Equity Value Per Share -154.32