Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Artisan Partners Asset Management I... (APAM)
$38.03
+0.89 (+2.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 795.62 | 828.63 | 798.95 | 899.57 | 1,227.24 | 1,379.37 | 1,550.36 | 1,742.55 | 1,958.56 | 2,201.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 486.85 | 222.80 | 201.63 | 290.84 | 461.28 | 505.49 | 568.16 | 638.59 | 717.75 | 806.72 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 481.56 | 217.13 | 195.40 | 284.22 | 454.35 | 496.03 | 557.52 | 626.63 | 704.31 | 791.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 5.30 | 5.67 | 6.23 | 6.62 | 6.93 | 9.47 | 10.64 | 11.96 | 13.44 | 15.11 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 159.17 | 193.01 | 143.63 | 198.82 | 200.14 | 275 | 309.09 | 347.41 | 390.48 | 438.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 93.46 | 73.26 | 83.52 | 103.47 | 122.26 | 144.85 | 162.80 | 182.99 | 205.67 | 231.17 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 24.84 | 21.48 | 54.08 | 134.09 | 49.18 | 86.61 | 97.35 | 109.42 | 122.98 | 138.23 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.84 | -13.84 | -17.78 | -3.10 | -5.97 | -15.06 | -16.93 | -19.03 | -21.39 | -24.04 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 38.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.790 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 55.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 38.99 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.20% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.845 |
| Total Debt | 299.75 |
| Total Equity | 2,114.47 |
| Total Capital | 2,414.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.42 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.58 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 795.62 | 828.63 | 798.95 | 899.57 | 1,227.24 | 1,379.37 | 1,550.36 | 1,742.55 | 1,958.56 | 2,201.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 486.85 | 222.80 | 201.63 | 290.84 | 461.28 | 505.49 | 568.16 | 638.59 | 717.75 | 806.72 |
| EBIT | 481.56 | 217.13 | 195.40 | 284.22 | 454.35 | 496.03 | 557.52 | 626.63 | 704.31 | 791.62 |
| Tax Rate | 91.32% | 47.54% | 41.87% | 42.43% | 38.99% | 52.43% | 52.43% | 52.43% | 52.43% | 52.43% |
| EBIAT | 41.81 | 113.90 | 113.59 | 163.63 | 277.21 | 235.97 | 265.22 | 298.10 | 335.05 | 376.59 |
| Depreciation | 5.30 | 5.67 | 6.23 | 6.62 | 6.93 | 9.47 | 10.64 | 11.96 | 13.44 | 15.11 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 20.20 | -10.26 | -19.96 | -18.78 | -22.59 | -17.96 | -20.18 | -22.68 | -25.50 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.35 | 32.60 | 80.01 | -84.91 | 37.44 | 10.74 | 12.07 | 13.56 | 15.25 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.83 | -13.84 | -17.78 | -3.10 | -5.97 | -15.06 | -16.93 | -19.03 | -21.39 | -24.04 |
| UFCF | 41.27 | 122.58 | 124.38 | 227.21 | 174.48 | 245.22 | 251.71 | 282.91 | 317.99 | 357.40 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 221.62 | 205.59 | 208.83 | 212.13 | 215.48 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,063.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 364.55 |
| Terminal Value | 4,214.48 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,540.90 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,604.55 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 99.61 |
| Equity Value | 3,504.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 55.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 63.04 |