Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Artisan Partners Asset Management I... (APAM)
$31.98
+0.81 (+2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 828.63 | 798.95 | 899.57 | 1,227.24 | 993.28 | 1,058.78 | 1,128.58 | 1,202.99 | 1,282.31 | 1,366.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 222.80 | 201.63 | 290.84 | 461.28 | 287.91 | 319.81 | 340.90 | 363.37 | 387.33 | 412.87 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 217.13 | 195.40 | 284.22 | 454.35 | 280.12 | 312.29 | 332.88 | 354.83 | 378.23 | 403.16 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 5.67 | 6.23 | 6.62 | 6.93 | 7.80 | 7.52 | 8.01 | 8.54 | 9.11 | 9.71 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 193.01 | 143.63 | 198.82 | 200.14 | 143.25 | 199.26 | 212.40 | 226.41 | 241.33 | 257.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 73.26 | 83.51 | 103.47 | 122.26 | 103.61 | 108.40 | 115.54 | 123.16 | 131.28 | 139.94 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.48 | 54.08 | 134.09 | 49.18 | 50.77 | 70.70 | 75.36 | 80.33 | 85.62 | 91.27 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -13.84 | -17.78 | -3.10 | -5.97 | -19.56 | -14.18 | -15.11 | -16.11 | -17.17 | -18.30 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 31.98 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.828 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 62.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.70 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.06% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.121 |
| Total Debt | 319.90 |
| Total Equity | 1,998.70 |
| Total Capital | 2,318.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.80 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.20 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 828.63 | 798.95 | 899.57 | 1,227.24 | 993.28 | 1,058.78 | 1,128.58 | 1,202.99 | 1,282.31 | 1,366.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 222.80 | 201.63 | 290.84 | 461.28 | 287.91 | 319.81 | 340.90 | 363.37 | 387.33 | 412.87 |
| EBIT | 217.13 | 195.40 | 284.22 | 454.35 | 280.12 | 312.29 | 332.88 | 354.83 | 378.23 | 403.16 |
| Tax Rate | 47.54% | 41.87% | 42.43% | 38.99% | 33.70% | 40.90% | 40.90% | 40.90% | 40.90% | 40.90% |
| EBIAT | 113.90 | 113.59 | 163.63 | 277.21 | 185.73 | 184.55 | 196.72 | 209.69 | 223.52 | 238.25 |
| Depreciation | 5.67 | 6.23 | 6.62 | 6.93 | 7.80 | 7.52 | 8.01 | 8.54 | 9.11 | 9.71 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -10.26 | -19.96 | -18.78 | 18.65 | -4.79 | -7.15 | -7.62 | -8.12 | -8.66 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 32.60 | 80.01 | -84.91 | 1.59 | 19.93 | 4.66 | 4.97 | 5.30 | 5.65 |
| Capital Expenditure | -13.84 | -17.78 | -3.10 | -5.97 | -19.56 | -14.18 | -15.11 | -16.11 | -17.17 | -18.30 |
| UFCF | 105.73 | 124.38 | 227.21 | 174.48 | 194.21 | 193.03 | 187.13 | 199.47 | 212.62 | 226.64 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 174.33 | 152.62 | 146.92 | 141.43 | 136.15 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 751.46 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 231.18 |
| Terminal Value | 2,648.07 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,590.75 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,342.21 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 176.65 |
| Equity Value | 2,165.56 |
| Shares Outstanding | 62.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 34.65 |