Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aperam S.A. (APAM.AS)

28.41 €

-0.31 (-1.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 105.14 | 28.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,6774,2403,6245,1028,1569,721.3511,587.1413,811.0216,461.7219,621.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4783573981,1971,0841,290.501,538.181,833.402,185.282,604.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3352072541,053898985.801,1751,400.521,669.311,989.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 143150144144186304.70363.18432.88515.97614.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 199375358524457755.38900.361,073.161,279.131,524.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 338299258.73364.25582.29694.04827.25986.021,175.261,400.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,4101,2271,1012,3322,5923,246.053,869.064,611.635,496.736,551.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9408007141,2001,1751,878.072,238.522,668.153,180.243,790.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -192-151-109-152-296-336.02-400.51-477.38-569.01-678.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.41
Beta 1.840
Diluted Shares Outstanding 75.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.970
Total Debt 925
Total Equity 2,142.20
Total Capital 3,067.20
Debt Weighting 30.16
Equity Weighting 69.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,6774,2403,6245,1028,1569,721.3511,587.1413,811.0216,461.7219,621.17
EBITDA 4783573981,1971,0841,290.501,538.181,833.402,185.282,604.69
EBIT 3352072541,053898985.801,1751,400.521,669.311,989.70
Tax Rate 19.89%20.00%26.47%7.19%16.89%18.09%18.09%18.09%18.09%18.09%
EBIAT 268.38165.60186.76977.28746.34807.49962.471,147.201,367.381,629.81
Depreciation 143150144144186304.70363.18432.88515.97614.99
Accounts Receivable -3940.27-105.52-218.04-111.76-133.21-158.77-189.24-225.56
Inventories -183126-1,231-260-654.05-623-742.58-885.10-1,054.97
Accounts Payable --140-86486-25703.07360.45429.63512.09610.37
Capital Expenditure -192-151-109-152-296-336.02-400.51-477.38-569.01-678.21
UFCF 219.38246.60302.03118.76133.31713.43529.38630.98752.09896.43
WACC
PV UFCF 647.81436.47472.39511.26553.34
SUM PV UFCF 2,621.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 900.92
Terminal Value 9,355.30
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,774.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,395.98
Net Debt 468
Equity Value 7,927.98
Shares Outstanding 75.40
Equity Value Per Share 105.14