Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aperam S.A. (APAM.AS)
30.9 €
+0.53 (+1.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,677 | 4,240 | 3,624 | 5,102 | 8,156 | 9,721.35 | 11,587.14 | 13,811.02 | 16,461.72 | 19,621.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 478 | 357 | 398 | 1,197 | 1,084 | 1,290.50 | 1,538.18 | 1,833.40 | 2,185.28 | 2,604.69 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 335 | 207 | 254 | 1,053 | 898 | 985.80 | 1,175 | 1,400.52 | 1,669.31 | 1,989.70 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 143 | 150 | 144 | 144 | 186 | 304.70 | 363.18 | 432.88 | 515.97 | 614.99 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 199 | 375 | 358 | 524 | 457 | 755.38 | 900.36 | 1,073.16 | 1,279.13 | 1,524.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 338 | 299 | 258.73 | 364.25 | 582.29 | 694.04 | 827.25 | 986.02 | 1,175.26 | 1,400.83 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,410 | 1,227 | 1,101 | 2,332 | 2,592 | 3,246.05 | 3,869.06 | 4,611.63 | 5,496.73 | 6,551.70 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 940 | 800 | 714 | 1,200 | 1,175 | 1,878.07 | 2,238.52 | 2,668.15 | 3,180.24 | 3,790.61 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -192 | -151 | -109 | -152 | -296 | -336.02 | -400.51 | -477.38 | -569.01 | -678.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.856 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 75.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.52% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.998 |
| Total Debt | 925 |
| Total Equity | 2,329.95 |
| Total Capital | 3,254.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.42 |
| Equity Weighting | 71.58 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,677 | 4,240 | 3,624 | 5,102 | 8,156 | 9,721.35 | 11,587.14 | 13,811.02 | 16,461.72 | 19,621.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 478 | 357 | 398 | 1,197 | 1,084 | 1,290.50 | 1,538.18 | 1,833.40 | 2,185.28 | 2,604.69 |
| EBIT | 335 | 207 | 254 | 1,053 | 898 | 985.80 | 1,175 | 1,400.52 | 1,669.31 | 1,989.70 |
| Tax Rate | 19.89% | 20.00% | 26.47% | 7.19% | 16.89% | 18.09% | 18.09% | 18.09% | 18.09% | 18.09% |
| EBIAT | 268.38 | 165.60 | 186.76 | 977.28 | 746.34 | 807.49 | 962.47 | 1,147.20 | 1,367.38 | 1,629.81 |
| Depreciation | 143 | 150 | 144 | 144 | 186 | 304.70 | 363.18 | 432.88 | 515.97 | 614.99 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 39 | 40.27 | -105.52 | -218.04 | -111.76 | -133.21 | -158.77 | -189.24 | -225.56 |
| Inventories | - | 183 | 126 | -1,231 | -260 | -654.05 | -623 | -742.58 | -885.10 | -1,054.97 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -140 | -86 | 486 | -25 | 703.07 | 360.45 | 429.63 | 512.09 | 610.37 |
| Capital Expenditure | -192 | -151 | -109 | -152 | -296 | -336.02 | -400.51 | -477.38 | -569.01 | -678.21 |
| UFCF | 219.38 | 246.60 | 302.03 | 118.76 | 133.31 | 713.43 | 529.38 | 630.98 | 752.09 | 896.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 646.75 | 435.05 | 470.08 | 507.94 | 548.84 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,608.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.31 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 914.36 |
| Terminal Value | 11,003.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,736.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 9,345.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 468 |
| Equity Value | 8,877.29 |
| Shares Outstanding | 75.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 117.73 |