Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

APi Group Corporation (APG)

$34.98

+0.48 (+1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -358.10 | 34.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,7289853,5873,9406,55810,933.3718,227.8830,389.1650,664.1984,466.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 271-92294338508490.92818.451,364.502,274.863,792.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 162-16131136204-100-166.71-277.94-463.37-772.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10969263202304590.91985.161,642.442,738.244,565.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 542565151,1886051,7752,959.244,933.588,225.1713,712.84
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,0059757819841,7724,367.037,280.6212,138.1020,236.4033,737.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 56586469163293.27488.93815.131,358.962,265.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 174156150236490834.181,390.732,318.593,865.516,444.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -74-11-38-55-79-147.86-246.50-410.96-685.15-1,142.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.98
Beta 1.750
Diluted Shares Outstanding 266
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.586
Total Debt 3,028
Total Equity 9,304.68
Total Capital 12,332.68
Debt Weighting 24.55
Equity Weighting 75.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,7289853,5873,9406,55810,933.3718,227.8830,389.1650,664.1984,466.32
EBITDA 271-92294338508490.92818.451,364.502,274.863,792.61
EBIT 162-16131136204-100-166.71-277.94-463.37-772.52
Tax Rate 6.85%-1.32%16.85%40.51%21.51%16.88%16.88%16.88%16.88%16.88%
EBIAT 150.90-163.1325.7880.91160.13-83.12-138.58-231.03-385.17-642.15
Depreciation 10969263202304590.91985.161,642.442,738.244,565.13
Accounts Receivable -30194-203-788-2,595.03-2,913.59-4,857.48-8,098.30-13,501.32
Inventories --2-6-5-94-130.27-195.66-326.20-543.84-906.67
Accounts Payable --18-686254344.18556.55927.871,546.922,578.99
Capital Expenditure -74-11-38-55-79-147.86-246.50-410.96-685.15-1,142.27
UFCF 185.90-95.13432.78105.91-242.87-2,021.18-1,952.62-3,255.38-5,427.30-9,048.28
WACC
PV UFCF -1,831.94-1,604.10-2,423.93-3,662.77-5,534.75
SUM PV UFCF -15,057.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) -9,319.73
Terminal Value -127,145
Present Value of Terminal Value -77,773.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -92,830.90
Net Debt 2,423
Equity Value -95,253.90
Shares Outstanding 266
Equity Value Per Share -358.10