Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amphenol Corporation (APH)

$78.65

+0.26 (+0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 40.59 | 78.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,011.308,2028,225.408,598.9010,876.3012,189.4413,661.1115,310.4717,158.9619,230.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,661.301,977.901,916.601,940.202,5112,846.493,190.163,575.324,006.984,490.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,434.501,678.201,604.501,632.102,115.402,410.032,7013,027.103,392.583,802.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 226.80299.70312.10308.10395.60436.46489.16548.22614.41688.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,753.701,291.70908.601,738.101,241.402,034.032,279.612,554.832,863.293,208.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,598.601,791.801,736.401,951.602,454.802,706.603,033.383,399.613,810.064,270.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,106.901,233.801,310.101,462.201,894.101,9792,217.942,485.712,785.823,122.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 875.60890.50866.801,120.701,3121,437.861,611.451,806.012,024.062,268.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -226.60-310.60-295-276.80-360.40-417.80-468.25-524.78-588.14-659.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 78.65
Beta 1.249
Diluted Shares Outstanding 625.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.93%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.413
Total Debt 4,799.90
Total Equity 49,195.57
Total Capital 53,995.47
Debt Weighting 8.89
Equity Weighting 91.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,011.308,2028,225.408,598.9010,876.3012,189.4413,661.1115,310.4717,158.9619,230.62
EBITDA 1,661.301,977.901,916.601,940.202,5112,846.493,190.163,575.324,006.984,490.76
EBIT 1,434.501,678.201,604.501,632.102,115.402,410.032,7013,027.103,392.583,802.17
Tax Rate 51.90%24.14%22.79%21.17%20.03%28.01%28.01%28.01%28.01%28.01%
EBIAT 689.991,273.121,238.851,286.561,691.721,735.101,944.582,179.362,442.482,737.37
Depreciation 226.80299.70312.10308.10395.60436.46489.16548.22614.41688.59
Accounts Receivable --193.2055.40-215.20-503.20-251.80-326.78-366.23-410.45-460
Inventories --126.90-76.30-152.10-431.90-84.90-238.93-267.78-300.11-336.34
Accounts Payable -14.90-23.70253.90191.30125.86173.60194.56218.05244.37
Capital Expenditure -226.60-310.60-295-276.80-360.40-417.80-468.25-524.78-588.14-659.14
UFCF 690.19957.021,211.351,204.46983.121,542.911,573.381,763.341,976.242,214.83
WACC
PV UFCF 1,418.761,330.381,371.041,412.931,456.11
SUM PV UFCF 6,989.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,259.13
Terminal Value 33,468.62
Present Value of Terminal Value 22,003.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 28,992.71
Net Debt 3,602.80
Equity Value 25,389.91
Shares Outstanding 625.50
Equity Value Per Share 40.59