Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG)

$42.99

+0.66 (+1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 22.71 | 42.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,326.171,402.641,387.441,230.771,313.981,314.471,314.971,315.461,315.961,316.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 170.23116.91134.6478.4667.63111.46111.50111.54111.59111.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 115.3967.1187.8527.0217.6461.4061.4261.4461.4761.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 54.8449.8046.8051.4449.9950.0650.0850.1050.1250.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 19.7817.0914.9547.2837.5827.5827.5927.6027.6127.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 213.89247.86270.39205.41198.99223.78223.87223.95224.03224.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 85.0378.3471.0972.8280.4976.6776.7076.7376.7676.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 68.4272.2269.0676.2092.1074.8974.9274.9474.9775
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -53.20-60.72-51.43-26.16-21.84-41.63-41.64-41.66-41.68-41.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 42.99
Beta 1.066
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 74.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.857
Total Debt 215.34
Total Equity 1,130.81
Total Capital 1,346.14
Debt Weighting 16.00
Equity Weighting 84.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,326.171,402.641,387.441,230.771,313.981,314.471,314.971,315.461,315.961,316.46
EBITDA 170.23116.91134.6478.4667.63111.46111.50111.54111.59111.63
EBIT 115.3967.1187.8527.0217.6461.4061.4261.4461.4761.49
Tax Rate 27.66%22.11%22.36%31.73%74.86%35.75%35.75%35.75%35.75%35.75%
EBIAT 83.4752.2868.2018.454.4339.4539.4739.4839.5039.51
Depreciation 54.8449.8046.8051.4449.9950.0650.0850.1050.1250.14
Accounts Receivable --33.97-22.5364.976.42-24.79-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08
Inventories -6.687.25-1.73-7.673.82-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03
Accounts Payable -3.80-3.167.1515.90-17.220.030.030.030.03
Capital Expenditure -53.20-60.72-51.43-26.16-21.84-41.63-41.64-41.66-41.68-41.69
UFCF 85.1217.8745.13114.1147.239.7147.8247.8447.8547.87
WACC
PV UFCF 9.0341.3738.4935.8233.33
SUM PV UFCF 158.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 48.83
Terminal Value 886.19
Present Value of Terminal Value 616.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 775.04
Net Debt 177.75
Equity Value 597.28
Shares Outstanding 26.30
Equity Value Per Share 22.71