Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aptiv PLC (APTV)

$104.35

+2.60 (+2.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 60.12 | 104.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,88414,43514,35713,06615,61816,478.4517,386.3018,344.1719,354.8120,421.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,2642,1342,0032,7811,6142,568.182,709.672,858.963,016.473,182.66
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,7181,4581,2862,0178411,753.771,850.391,952.332,059.892,173.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 546676717764773814.42859.29906.63956.581,009.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,5965674122,8213,1392,006.222,116.752,233.372,356.412,486.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,7852,7952,8293,0162,7843,348.153,532.613,727.233,932.574,149.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,0831,2771,2861,2972,0141,615.931,704.951,798.891,897.992,002.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,2272,3342,4632,5712,9532,939.563,101.513,272.383,452.673,642.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -698-846-781-586-613-828.14-873.77-921.91-972.70-1,026.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 104.35
Beta 2.012
Diluted Shares Outstanding 270.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.22%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.238
Total Debt 4,371
Total Equity 28,247.54
Total Capital 32,618.54
Debt Weighting 13.40
Equity Weighting 86.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,88414,43514,35713,06615,61816,478.4517,386.3018,344.1719,354.8120,421.13
EBITDA 2,2642,1342,0032,7811,6142,568.182,709.672,858.963,016.473,182.66
EBIT 1,7181,4581,2862,0178411,753.771,850.391,952.332,059.892,173.38
Tax Rate -7.97%20.01%12.08%7.68%35.16%13.39%13.39%13.39%13.39%13.39%
EBIAT 1,854.891,166.181,130.671,862.16545.261,518.881,602.561,690.851,7841,882.29
Depreciation 546676717764773814.42859.29906.63956.581,009.28
Accounts Receivable --10-34-187232-564.15-184.46-194.62-205.35-216.66
Inventories --194-9-11-717398.07-89.03-93.93-99.11-104.57
Accounts Payable -107129108382-13.44161.95170.87180.29190.22
Capital Expenditure -698-846-781-586-613-828.14-873.77-921.91-972.70-1,026.29
UFCF 1,702.89899.181,152.681,950.16602.261,325.641,476.541,557.891,643.721,734.28
WACC
PV UFCF 1,195.351,200.561,142.201,086.681,033.86
SUM PV UFCF 5,658.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,768.96
Terminal Value 19,875.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,848.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 17,507.34
Net Debt 1,232
Equity Value 16,275.34
Shares Outstanding 270.70
Equity Value Per Share 60.12