Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN.TO)

$15.93

+0.34 (+2.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 41.22 | 15.93 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,572.811,647.391,624.921,677.062,285.482,530.402,801.573,101.793,434.193,802.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 652.24671.641,066.791,343.10833.951,338.421,481.851,640.651,816.472,011.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 390.39390.48782.491,028.98430.99895.22991.161,097.381,214.971,345.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 261.85281.16284.30314.12402.96443.20490.69543.27601.49665.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 43.3846.8262.49101.61125.16106.18117.56130.16144.10159.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 244.03245.73259.14325.64403.43422.32467.58517.69573.16634.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 89.2895.6091.10134.65177.76166.46184.30204.05225.92250.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 119.6289.74150.34192.16185.29211.90234.61259.75287.58318.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -588.49-466.37-581.33-786.03-1,345.05-1,048.72-1,161.10-1,285.53-1,423.29-1,575.82
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.93
Beta 0.293
Diluted Shares Outstanding 499.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -86.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.966
Total Debt 6,211.38
Total Equity 7,963.58
Total Capital 14,174.96
Debt Weighting 43.82
Equity Weighting 56.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,572.811,647.391,624.921,677.062,285.482,530.402,801.573,101.793,434.193,802.22
EBITDA 652.24671.641,066.791,343.10833.951,338.421,481.851,640.651,816.472,011.13
EBIT 390.39390.48782.491,028.98430.99895.22991.161,097.381,214.971,345.18
Tax Rate 14.58%-39.65%4.36%1.26%-86.22%-21.14%-21.14%-21.14%-21.14%-21.14%
EBIAT 333.49545.32748.401,016.06802.571,084.441,200.661,329.321,471.781,629.50
Depreciation 261.85281.16284.30314.12402.96443.20490.69543.27601.49665.95
Accounts Receivable --1.69-13.42-66.50-77.78-18.89-45.26-50.11-55.48-61.42
Inventories --6.324.50-43.55-43.1211.30-17.84-19.75-21.87-24.21
Accounts Payable --29.8860.6041.82-6.8726.6122.7125.1427.8430.82
Capital Expenditure -588.49-466.37-581.33-786.03-1,345.05-1,048.72-1,161.10-1,285.53-1,423.29-1,575.82
UFCF 6.85322.21503.05475.93-267.28497.94489.86542.35600.47664.82
WACC
PV UFCF 477.55450.56478.41507.99539.40
SUM PV UFCF 2,453.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.27
Free cash flow (t + 1) 678.12
Terminal Value 29,873.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 24,237.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 26,691.17
Net Debt 6,086.22
Equity Value 20,604.95
Shares Outstanding 499.91
Equity Value Per Share 41.22