Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)

$78.16

+2.04 (+2.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 93.90 | 78.16 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,826.463,093.792,988.312,940.163,980.074,376.154,811.655,290.495,816.986,395.86
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 160.99202.49175.40222.58410.28314.99346.33380.80418.70460.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 57.9293.8562.94104.19286.06156.84172.45189.61208.48229.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 103.07108.63112.47118.39124.22158.15173.89191.19210.22231.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 177.17296.99318.49369.36124.96369.59406.37446.81491.28540.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 298.57316.20301.35335.21595.44500.89550.74605.55665.81732.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 129.10143.79134.37170.90311.40239.36263.18289.37318.17349.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.62-54.09-102.43-57.49-78.47-103.09-113.35-124.63-137.03-150.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 78.16
Beta 1.602
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.179
Total Debt 337.11
Total Equity 2,065.18
Total Capital 2,402.29
Debt Weighting 14.03
Equity Weighting 85.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,826.463,093.792,988.312,940.163,980.074,376.154,811.655,290.495,816.986,395.86
EBITDA 160.99202.49175.40222.58410.28314.99346.33380.80418.70460.36
EBIT 57.9293.8562.94104.19286.06156.84172.45189.61208.48229.23
Tax Rate -15.80%20.29%22.32%23.13%22.96%14.58%14.58%14.58%14.58%14.58%
EBIAT 67.0774.8148.8980.09220.38133.97147.31161.97178.08195.81
Depreciation 103.07108.63112.47118.39124.22158.15173.89191.19210.22231.14
Accounts Receivable --17.6314.84-33.86-260.2294.55-49.85-54.81-60.26-66.26
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -14.69-9.4136.52140.50-72.0423.8226.1928.8031.66
Capital Expenditure -75.62-54.09-102.43-57.49-78.47-103.09-113.35-124.63-137.03-150.67
UFCF 94.52126.4164.36143.66146.41211.54181.82199.91219.81241.68
WACC
PV UFCF 192.48150.54150.61150.68150.75
SUM PV UFCF 795.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 246.51
Terminal Value 3,120.44
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,946.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,741.43
Net Debt 260.49
Equity Value 2,480.94
Shares Outstanding 26.42
Equity Value Per Share 93.90