Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)
$78.16
+2.04 (+2.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,826.46 | 3,093.79 | 2,988.31 | 2,940.16 | 3,980.07 | 4,376.15 | 4,811.65 | 5,290.49 | 5,816.98 | 6,395.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 160.99 | 202.49 | 175.40 | 222.58 | 410.28 | 314.99 | 346.33 | 380.80 | 418.70 | 460.36 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 57.92 | 93.85 | 62.94 | 104.19 | 286.06 | 156.84 | 172.45 | 189.61 | 208.48 | 229.23 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 103.07 | 108.63 | 112.47 | 118.39 | 124.22 | 158.15 | 173.89 | 191.19 | 210.22 | 231.14 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 177.17 | 296.99 | 318.49 | 369.36 | 124.96 | 369.59 | 406.37 | 446.81 | 491.28 | 540.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 298.57 | 316.20 | 301.35 | 335.21 | 595.44 | 500.89 | 550.74 | 605.55 | 665.81 | 732.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 129.10 | 143.79 | 134.37 | 170.90 | 311.40 | 239.36 | 263.18 | 289.37 | 318.17 | 349.83 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -75.62 | -54.09 | -102.43 | -57.49 | -78.47 | -103.09 | -113.35 | -124.63 | -137.03 | -150.67 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 78.16 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.602 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 26.42 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.03% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.179 |
| Total Debt | 337.11 |
| Total Equity | 2,065.18 |
| Total Capital | 2,402.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.03 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.97 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,826.46 | 3,093.79 | 2,988.31 | 2,940.16 | 3,980.07 | 4,376.15 | 4,811.65 | 5,290.49 | 5,816.98 | 6,395.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 160.99 | 202.49 | 175.40 | 222.58 | 410.28 | 314.99 | 346.33 | 380.80 | 418.70 | 460.36 |
| EBIT | 57.92 | 93.85 | 62.94 | 104.19 | 286.06 | 156.84 | 172.45 | 189.61 | 208.48 | 229.23 |
| Tax Rate | -15.80% | 20.29% | 22.32% | 23.13% | 22.96% | 14.58% | 14.58% | 14.58% | 14.58% | 14.58% |
| EBIAT | 67.07 | 74.81 | 48.89 | 80.09 | 220.38 | 133.97 | 147.31 | 161.97 | 178.08 | 195.81 |
| Depreciation | 103.07 | 108.63 | 112.47 | 118.39 | 124.22 | 158.15 | 173.89 | 191.19 | 210.22 | 231.14 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -17.63 | 14.84 | -33.86 | -260.22 | 94.55 | -49.85 | -54.81 | -60.26 | -66.26 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 14.69 | -9.41 | 36.52 | 140.50 | -72.04 | 23.82 | 26.19 | 28.80 | 31.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | -75.62 | -54.09 | -102.43 | -57.49 | -78.47 | -103.09 | -113.35 | -124.63 | -137.03 | -150.67 |
| UFCF | 94.52 | 126.41 | 64.36 | 143.66 | 146.41 | 211.54 | 181.82 | 199.91 | 219.81 | 241.68 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 192.48 | 150.54 | 150.61 | 150.68 | 150.75 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 795.05 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 246.51 |
| Terminal Value | 3,120.44 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,946.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,741.43 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 260.49 |
| Equity Value | 2,480.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.42 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 93.90 |