Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ARC Group Worldwide, Inc. (ARCW)
$1.4
+0.15 (+12.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 103.84 | 99.07 | 82.44 | 79.83 | 48.53 | 40.79 | 34.29 | 28.82 | 24.23 | 20.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 11.75 | 1.11 | 0.63 | -10.75 | 4.25 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.22 | -8.82 | -9.59 | -20.90 | -1.87 | -3.95 | -3.32 | -2.79 | -2.35 | -1.97 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 9.53 | 9.93 | 10.22 | 10.15 | 6.11 | 4.64 | 3.90 | 3.28 | 2.76 | 2.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.62 | 0.59 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 3.94 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.63 | 0.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 14.91 | 10.49 | 11.25 | 10.65 | 5.88 | 5.22 | 4.39 | 3.69 | 3.10 | 2.61 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.61 | 14.37 | 12.33 | 11.90 | 5.53 | 5.93 | 4.99 | 4.19 | 3.52 | 2.96 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 9.29 | 8.68 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 2.80 | 4.17 | 3.51 | 2.95 | 2.48 | 2.08 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.63 | -6.64 | -5.14 | -1.92 | -1.20 | -1.66 | -1.40 | -1.17 | -0.99 | -0.83 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.907 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 23.36 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -1.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.404 |
| Total Debt | 32.33 |
| Total Equity | 32.70 |
| Total Capital | 65.03 |
| Debt Weighting | 49.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 50.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 103.84 | 99.07 | 82.44 | 79.83 | 48.53 | 40.79 | 34.29 | 28.82 | 24.23 | 20.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 11.75 | 1.11 | 0.63 | -10.75 | 4.25 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| EBIT | 2.22 | -8.82 | -9.59 | -20.90 | -1.87 | -3.95 | -3.32 | -2.79 | -2.35 | -1.97 |
| Tax Rate | -8.89% | 39.31% | -1.86% | -18.92% | -1.13% | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.70% |
| EBIAT | 2.42 | -5.35 | -9.77 | -24.86 | -1.89 | -3.88 | -3.27 | -2.74 | -2.31 | -1.94 |
| Depreciation | 9.53 | 9.93 | 10.22 | 10.15 | 6.11 | 4.64 | 3.90 | 3.28 | 2.76 | 2.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 4.43 | -0.76 | 0.60 | 4.77 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| Inventories | - | 3.24 | 2.04 | 0.42 | 6.37 | -0.40 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.60 | 3.02 | -0.98 | -7.92 | 1.37 | -0.66 | -0.56 | -0.47 | -0.39 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.63 | -6.64 | -5.14 | -1.92 | -1.20 | -1.66 | -1.40 | -1.17 | -0.99 | -0.83 |
| UFCF | 9.31 | 5 | -0.39 | -16.58 | 6.25 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.14 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1.49 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.19 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 0.22 |
| Terminal Value | 3 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1.93 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3.43 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 28.39 |
| Equity Value | -24.96 |
| Shares Outstanding | 23.36 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1.07 |