Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO)

$8.66

-0.07 (-0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.89 | 8.66 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 472.02370.01357.15435.14490.41502513.86526.01538.44551.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -13.16-180.48-94.75-32.74-48.50-95.89-98.16-100.47-102.85-105.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -18.47-191.16-104.95-38.71-53.27-105.14-107.62-110.17-112.77-115.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.3110.6810.215.984.779.259.479.699.9210.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 201.03256.67206.12175.75113.72234.18239.72245.38251.18257.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 178.60127.3277.6479.5665.96126.22129.21132.26135.38138.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 124.7968.6264.7138.3946.5581.7483.6785.6587.6889.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 82.54111.6562.1784.1052.1395.4197.6699.97102.33104.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21.67-6.66-3.89-2.27-2.01-8.45-8.65-8.85-9.06-9.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.66
Beta 1.653
Diluted Shares Outstanding 87.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.105
Total Debt 23.47
Total Equity 754.92
Total Capital 778.39
Debt Weighting 3.02
Equity Weighting 96.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 472.02370.01357.15435.14490.41502513.86526.01538.44551.16
EBITDA -13.16-180.48-94.75-32.74-48.50-95.89-98.16-100.47-102.85-105.28
EBIT -18.47-191.16-104.95-38.71-53.27-105.14-107.62-110.17-112.77-115.44
Tax Rate -1.14%-5.37%-0.62%-1.22%-1.75%-2.02%-2.02%-2.02%-2.02%-2.02%
EBIAT -18.68-201.42-105.60-39.19-54.20-107.27-109.80-112.39-115.05-117.77
Depreciation 5.3110.6810.215.984.779.259.479.699.9210.16
Accounts Receivable -51.2849.67-1.9213.60-60.26-2.98-3.05-3.13-3.20
Inventories -56.173.9226.31-8.16-35.19-1.93-1.98-2.02-2.07
Accounts Payable -29.11-49.4821.93-31.9743.272.252.312.362.42
Capital Expenditure -21.67-6.66-3.89-2.27-2.01-8.45-8.65-8.85-9.06-9.27
UFCF -35.04-60.85-95.1810.84-77.97-158.64-111.64-114.27-116.97-119.74
WACC
PV UFCF -141.80-89.20-81.62-74.69-68.34
SUM PV UFCF -455.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) -124.53
Terminal Value -1,582.30
Present Value of Terminal Value -903.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,358.72
Net Debt -60.55
Equity Value -1,298.17
Shares Outstanding 87.17
Equity Value Per Share -14.89