Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Artea SA (ARTE.PA)

24.2 €

+1.00 (+4.31%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -99.41 | 24.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	22.90	73.06	25.36	33.55	105.69	211.68	423.94	849.06	1,700.48	3,405.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	9.32	21.01	21.87	20.83	22.46	101.17	202.62	405.80	812.72	1,627.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	8.58	19.23	19.79	17.94	19.43	90.45	181.16	362.82	726.66	1,455.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	0.74	1.78	2.08	2.89	3.03	10.71	21.46	42.97	86.06	172.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	13.15	17.43	17.11	12.99	22.41	88.33	176.91	354.32	709.63	1,421.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	45.18	17.25	12.66	17.85	41.53	153.81	308.04	616.95	1,235.61	2,474.65
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	12.76	13.88	20.29	30.39	38.33	119.20	238.73	478.12	957.57	1,917.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-15.82	-11.97	-21.58	-16.77	-9.47	-97.16	-194.58	-389.70	-780.49	-1,563.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 24.2
Beta	0.540
Diluted Shares Outstanding	107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-20.14
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.240
Total Debt	155.23
Total Equity	2,601.16
Total Capital	2,756.39
Debt Weighting	5.63
Equity Weighting	94.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	22.90	73.06	25.36	33.55	105.69	211.68	423.94	849.06	1,700.48	3,405.70
EBITDA	9.32	21.01	21.87	20.83	22.46	101.17	202.62	405.80	812.72	1,627.70
EBIT	8.58	19.23	19.79	17.94	19.43	90.45	181.16	362.82	726.66	1,455.33
Tax Rate	25.69%	40.10%	39.38%	19.29%	-20.14%	20.87%	20.87%	20.87%	20.87%	20.87%
EBIAT	6.38	11.52	12	14.48	23.34	71.58	143.36	287.12	575.04	1,151.68
Depreciation	0.74	1.78	2.08	2.89	3.03	10.71	21.46	42.97	86.06	172.37
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	27.93	4.59	-5.19	-23.68	-112.28	-154.24	-308.90	-618.66	-1,239.05
Accounts Payable	-	1.12	6.41	10.10	7.94	80.87	119.53	239.39	479.45	960.24
Capital Expenditure	-15.82	-11.97	-21.58	-16.77	-9.47	-97.16	-194.58	-389.70	-780.49	-1,563.15
UFCF	-8.71	30.38	3.49	5.51	1.16	-46.27	-64.47	-129.12	-258.60	-517.91
WACC
PV UFCF						-43.64	-57.33	-108.29	-204.52	-386.29
SUM PV UFCF										-800.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.04
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-528.27
Terminal Value	-13,076.06
Present Value of Terminal Value	-9,752.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-10,552.85
Net Debt	132.82
Equity Value	-10,685.67
Shares Outstanding	107.49
Equity Value Per Share	-99.41