Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Artesian Resources Corporation (ARTNA)
$50.36
+1.17 (+2.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 80.41 | 83.59 | 88.14 | 90.86 | 98.90 | 104.17 | 109.72 | 115.58 | 121.74 | 128.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 35.81 | 37.93 | 41.26 | 42.04 | 45 | 47.60 | 50.14 | 52.82 | 55.63 | 58.60 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 25.52 | 27.13 | 30.12 | 30.16 | 32.38 | 34.23 | 36.05 | 37.98 | 40 | 42.13 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.29 | 10.80 | 11.14 | 11.89 | 12.62 | 13.38 | 14.09 | 14.84 | 15.63 | 16.46 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.29 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1.31 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.37 | 8.14 | 11.96 | 12.18 | 16.73 | 13.86 | 14.60 | 15.38 | 16.20 | 17.06 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.46 | 1.26 | 1.54 | 1.93 | 4.70 | 2.49 | 2.62 | 2.76 | 2.91 | 3.06 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 8.19 | 8.18 | 6.34 | 10.21 | 10.93 | 10.30 | 10.85 | 11.43 | 12.04 | 12.68 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -49.05 | -40.68 | -34.28 | -40.81 | -48.48 | -50.52 | -53.22 | -56.05 | -59.04 | -62.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 50.36 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.162 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.48 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.62 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.23% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.548 |
| Total Debt | 198.26 |
| Total Equity | 477.46 |
| Total Capital | 675.73 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.34 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.66 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 80.41 | 83.59 | 88.14 | 90.86 | 98.90 | 104.17 | 109.72 | 115.58 | 121.74 | 128.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 35.81 | 37.93 | 41.26 | 42.04 | 45 | 47.60 | 50.14 | 52.82 | 55.63 | 58.60 |
| EBIT | 25.52 | 27.13 | 30.12 | 30.16 | 32.38 | 34.23 | 36.05 | 37.98 | 40 | 42.13 |
| Tax Rate | 25.90% | 25.77% | 25.26% | 25.43% | 24.62% | 25.40% | 25.40% | 25.40% | 25.40% | 25.40% |
| EBIAT | 18.91 | 20.14 | 22.51 | 22.49 | 24.41 | 25.54 | 26.90 | 28.33 | 29.84 | 31.43 |
| Depreciation | 10.29 | 10.80 | 11.14 | 11.89 | 12.62 | 13.38 | 14.09 | 14.84 | 15.63 | 16.46 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.23 | -3.81 | -0.22 | -4.55 | 2.87 | -0.74 | -0.78 | -0.82 | -0.86 |
| Inventories | - | 0.19 | -0.27 | -0.40 | -2.77 | 2.21 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.01 | -1.83 | 3.86 | 0.72 | -0.63 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| Capital Expenditure | -49.05 | -40.68 | -34.28 | -40.81 | -48.48 | -50.52 | -53.22 | -56.05 | -59.04 | -62.19 |
| UFCF | -19.85 | -7.32 | -6.54 | -3.19 | -18.05 | -7.16 | -12.55 | -13.22 | -13.93 | -14.67 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -6.87 | -11.57 | -11.70 | -11.83 | -11.96 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -53.93 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -14.96 |
| Terminal Value | -692.63 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -564.93 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -618.86 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 196.95 |
| Equity Value | -815.82 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.48 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -86.05 |