Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY.NS)

153.9 ₹

+1.85 (+1.22%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 125.56 | 153.9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	290,552.20	327,532.40	217,481.20	193,777.60	261,102.60	263,042.43	264,996.67	266,965.43	268,948.81	270,946.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	43,891.09	49,335.60	31,676.70	25,735.50	24,622.60	35,481.98	35,745.59	36,011.16	36,278.70	36,548.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	37,432.22	42,580	24,176.80	17,379.30	15,963	27,399.80	27,603.36	27,808.44	28,015.04	28,223.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	6,458.87	6,755.60	7,499.90	8,356.20	8,659.60	8,082.18	8,142.22	8,202.72	8,263.66	8,325.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	46,969.38	24,366.80	25,991.50	26,999.40	44,389	34,979.38	35,239.26	35,501.06	35,764.81	36,030.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	22,076.89	30,634.30	15,363.90	24,958.50	25,405.50	24,529.15	24,711.38	24,894.97	25,079.93	25,266.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	50,746.47	51,790.20	28,346	53,462.30	72,499.10	53,485.77	53,883.13	54,283.45	54,686.74	55,093.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-6,511.60	-11,263.50	-13,490.80	-7,516.70	-5,087.20	-9,317.28	-9,386.50	-9,456.24	-9,526.49	-9,597.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 153.9
Beta	0.694
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,935.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-79.67
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.74%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.806
Total Debt	241,450.20
Total Equity	451,777.65
Total Capital	693,227.85
Debt Weighting	34.83
Equity Weighting	65.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	290,552.20	327,532.40	217,481.20	193,777.60	261,102.60	263,042.43	264,996.67	266,965.43	268,948.81	270,946.93
EBITDA	43,891.09	49,335.60	31,676.70	25,735.50	24,622.60	35,481.98	35,745.59	36,011.16	36,278.70	36,548.22
EBIT	37,432.22	42,580	24,176.80	17,379.30	15,963	27,399.80	27,603.36	27,808.44	28,015.04	28,223.17
Tax Rate	31.71%	27.61%	54.45%	-146.32%	-79.67%	-22.44%	-22.44%	-22.44%	-22.44%	-22.44%
EBIAT	25,563.82	30,822.26	11,011.96	42,808.32	28,681.25	33,549.37	33,798.62	34,049.72	34,302.69	34,557.53
Depreciation	6,458.87	6,755.60	7,499.90	8,356.20	8,659.60	8,082.18	8,142.22	8,202.72	8,263.66	8,325.05
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-8,557.41	15,270.40	-9,594.60	-447	876.35	-182.24	-183.59	-184.95	-186.33
Accounts Payable	-	1,043.73	-23,444.20	25,116.30	19,036.80	-19,013.33	397.37	400.32	403.29	406.29
Capital Expenditure	-6,511.60	-11,263.50	-13,490.80	-7,516.70	-5,087.20	-9,317.28	-9,386.50	-9,456.24	-9,526.49	-9,597.27
UFCF	25,511.09	18,800.68	-3,152.74	59,169.52	50,843.45	14,177.28	32,769.47	33,012.93	33,258.19	33,505.28
WACC
PV UFCF						13,233.72	28,552.70	26,850.40	25,249.58	23,744.21
SUM PV UFCF										117,630.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1)	34,175.38
Terminal Value	666,186.84
Present Value of Terminal Value	472,107.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	589,737.70
Net Debt	221,140.60
Equity Value	368,597.10
Shares Outstanding	2,935.53
Equity Value Per Share	125.56