Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY.NS)

153.9 ₹

+1.85 (+1.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 125.56 | 153.9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 290,552.20327,532.40217,481.20193,777.60261,102.60263,042.43264,996.67266,965.43268,948.81270,946.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 43,891.0949,335.6031,676.7025,735.5024,622.6035,481.9835,745.5936,011.1636,278.7036,548.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37,432.2242,58024,176.8017,379.3015,96327,399.8027,603.3627,808.4428,015.0428,223.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,458.876,755.607,499.908,356.208,659.608,082.188,142.228,202.728,263.668,325.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 46,969.3824,366.8025,991.5026,999.4044,38934,979.3835,239.2635,501.0635,764.8136,030.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 22,076.8930,634.3015,363.9024,958.5025,405.5024,529.1524,711.3824,894.9725,079.9325,266.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 50,746.4751,790.2028,34653,462.3072,499.1053,485.7753,883.1354,283.4554,686.7455,093.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,511.60-11,263.50-13,490.80-7,516.70-5,087.20-9,317.28-9,386.50-9,456.24-9,526.49-9,597.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 153.9
Beta 0.694
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,935.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -79.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.74%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.806
Total Debt 241,450.20
Total Equity 451,777.65
Total Capital 693,227.85
Debt Weighting 34.83
Equity Weighting 65.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 290,552.20327,532.40217,481.20193,777.60261,102.60263,042.43264,996.67266,965.43268,948.81270,946.93
EBITDA 43,891.0949,335.6031,676.7025,735.5024,622.6035,481.9835,745.5936,011.1636,278.7036,548.22
EBIT 37,432.2242,58024,176.8017,379.3015,96327,399.8027,603.3627,808.4428,015.0428,223.17
Tax Rate 31.71%27.61%54.45%-146.32%-79.67%-22.44%-22.44%-22.44%-22.44%-22.44%
EBIAT 25,563.8230,822.2611,011.9642,808.3228,681.2533,549.3733,798.6234,049.7234,302.6934,557.53
Depreciation 6,458.876,755.607,499.908,356.208,659.608,082.188,142.228,202.728,263.668,325.05
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --8,557.4115,270.40-9,594.60-447876.35-182.24-183.59-184.95-186.33
Accounts Payable -1,043.73-23,444.2025,116.3019,036.80-19,013.33397.37400.32403.29406.29
Capital Expenditure -6,511.60-11,263.50-13,490.80-7,516.70-5,087.20-9,317.28-9,386.50-9,456.24-9,526.49-9,597.27
UFCF 25,511.0918,800.68-3,152.7459,169.5250,843.4514,177.2832,769.4733,012.9333,258.1933,505.28
WACC
PV UFCF 13,233.7228,552.7026,850.4025,249.5823,744.21
SUM PV UFCF 117,630.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 34,175.38
Terminal Value 666,186.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 472,107.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 589,737.70
Net Debt 221,140.60
Equity Value 368,597.10
Shares Outstanding 2,935.53
Equity Value Per Share 125.56