Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX)

$28.04

+0.24 (+0.86%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.85 | 28.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,514.981,297.391,157.921,684.631,945.642,120.112,310.222,517.382,743.122,989.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 146.50116.92123.66255.48297.92253.73276.48301.27328.29357.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 93.2660.1062.82190.14228.57166.42181.35197.61215.33234.63
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 53.2356.8360.8365.3469.3587.3195.14103.67112.96123.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9.817.0510.6115.1030.9819.4921.2323.1425.2127.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 160.27106.66135.84179.09185.20214.90234.17255.17278.05302.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 137.18171.71180.08149.57215.50245.07267.05290.99317.09345.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 229.51205.91190.23221.23272.77316.32344.69375.60409.28445.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -109.21-150.32-82.92-56.81-89.45-143.85-156.75-170.81-186.13-202.82
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.04
Beta 1.722
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.413
Total Debt 230.04
Total Equity 814.03
Total Capital 1,044.08
Debt Weighting 22.03
Equity Weighting 77.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,514.981,297.391,157.921,684.631,945.642,120.112,310.222,517.382,743.122,989.09
EBITDA 146.50116.92123.66255.48297.92253.73276.48301.27328.29357.73
EBIT 93.2660.1062.82190.14228.57166.42181.35197.61215.33234.63
Tax Rate 22.76%22.50%16.27%24.48%23.87%21.98%21.98%21.98%21.98%21.98%
EBIAT 72.0346.5852.60143.58174129.85141.49154.18168183.07
Depreciation 53.2356.8360.8365.3469.3587.3195.14103.67112.96123.09
Accounts Receivable -53.61-29.18-43.24-6.11-29.70-19.27-21-22.88-24.93
Inventories --34.53-8.3730.51-65.93-29.57-21.98-23.95-26.09-28.43
Accounts Payable --23.60-15.6831.0151.5443.5528.3730.9133.6836.70
Capital Expenditure -109.22-150.32-82.92-56.81-89.45-143.85-156.75-170.81-186.13-202.82
UFCF 16.05-51.44-22.73170.39133.4057.5866.997379.5486.68
WACC
PV UFCF 52.1654.9654.2553.5552.85
SUM PV UFCF 267.77

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 87.11
Terminal Value 879.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 536.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 804.30
Net Debt 199.06
Equity Value 605.24
Shares Outstanding 29.03
Equity Value Per Share 20.85