Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX)

$32.74

-1.56 (-4.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 14.41 | 32.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,475.191,514.981,297.391,157.921,684.621,781.791,884.571,993.272,108.242,229.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 193.09139110.17123.66255.48201.70213.33225.64238.65252.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 144.6385.7753.3562.82190.14129.32136.78144.67153.02161.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 48.4653.2356.8360.8365.3472.3876.5580.9785.6490.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 55.439.817.0510.6115.1024.0925.4826.9528.5130.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 196160.27106.66135.84179.09194.03205.22217.06229.58242.82
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 129.21137.18171.71180.09149.57197.71209.11221.17233.93247.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 227.71229.51205.91190.23221.23270.89286.52303.05320.52339.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -86.44-109.21-150.32-82.92-56.81-125.40-132.63-140.28-148.37-156.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.74
Beta 1.855
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.16
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.48
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.638
Total Debt 271.71
Total Equity 921.86
Total Capital 1,193.57
Debt Weighting 22.76
Equity Weighting 77.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,475.191,514.981,297.391,157.921,684.621,781.791,884.571,993.272,108.242,229.84
EBITDA 193.09139110.17123.66255.48201.70213.33225.64238.65252.42
EBIT 144.6385.7753.3562.82190.14129.32136.78144.67153.02161.84
Tax Rate -1.43%22.76%22.50%16.27%24.48%16.92%16.92%16.92%16.92%16.92%
EBIAT 146.7066.2441.3552.60143.58107.44113.64120.20127.13134.46
Depreciation 48.4653.2356.8360.8365.3472.3876.5580.9785.6490.58
Accounts Receivable -35.7453.61-29.18-43.24-14.95-11.19-11.84-12.52-13.24
Inventories --7.97-34.53-8.3830.52-48.14-11.40-12.06-12.76-13.49
Accounts Payable -1.80-23.60-15.6831.0149.6615.6216.5317.4818.49
Capital Expenditure -86.44-109.22-150.32-82.92-56.81-125.40-132.63-140.28-148.37-156.93
UFCF 108.7239.82-56.67-22.73170.394150.6053.5156.6059.87
WACC
PV UFCF 37.2541.7540.1238.5537.04
SUM PV UFCF 194.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.08
Free cash flow (t + 1) 61.06
Terminal Value 755.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 467.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 662.24
Net Debt 256.61
Equity Value 405.64
Shares Outstanding 28.16
Equity Value Per Share 14.41