Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASM International NV (ASM.AS)

333.3 €

-6.00 (-1.77%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 210.58 | 333.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	818.08	1,283.86	1,328.12	1,729.91	2,410.93	3,194.49	4,232.73	5,608.39	7,431.15	9,846.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	230.39	462.75	425.11	694.92	628.93	1,038.03	1,375.39	1,822.40	2,414.69	3,199.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	175.03	384.43	336.08	599.34	506.50	845.25	1,119.96	1,483.95	1,966.25	2,605.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	55.35	78.32	89.03	95.58	122.43	192.78	255.43	338.45	448.45	594.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	285.91	497.87	435.23	491.51	419.32	973.06	1,289.31	1,708.35	2,263.57	2,999.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	198	237	314	469	563.05	746.05	988.52	1,309.79	1,735.48	2,299.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	171.82	173.19	162.20	211.84	538.42	519.32	688.11	911.75	1,208.07	1,600.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	80.64	119.71	124.51	175.44	243.50	311.77	413.09	547.35	725.24	960.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-117.81	-111.23	-162.80	-156.85	-208.47	-338.85	-448.97	-594.89	-788.24	-1,044.42
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 333.3
Beta	1.504
Diluted Shares Outstanding	48.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.94
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.18%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.479
Total Debt	28.12
Total Equity	16,301.37
Total Capital	16,329.49
Debt Weighting	0.17
Equity Weighting	99.83
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	818.08	1,283.86	1,328.12	1,729.91	2,410.93	3,194.49	4,232.73	5,608.39	7,431.15	9,846.33
EBITDA	230.39	462.75	425.11	694.92	628.93	1,038.03	1,375.39	1,822.40	2,414.69	3,199.49
EBIT	175.03	384.43	336.08	599.34	506.50	845.25	1,119.96	1,483.95	1,966.25	2,605.29
Tax Rate	8.94%	14.02%	14.57%	17.18%	22.94%	15.53%	15.53%	15.53%	15.53%	15.53%
EBIAT	159.38	330.53	287.11	496.38	390.29	713.97	946.01	1,253.47	1,660.86	2,200.65
Depreciation	55.35	78.32	89.03	95.58	122.43	192.78	255.43	338.45	448.45	594.19
Accounts Receivable	-	-39	-77	-155	-94.05	-183	-242.47	-321.27	-425.69	-564.04
Inventories	-	-1.36	10.99	-49.64	-326.58	19.10	-168.78	-223.64	-296.32	-392.63
Accounts Payable	-	39.07	4.80	50.93	68.06	68.27	101.33	134.26	177.89	235.71
Capital Expenditure	-117.81	-111.23	-162.80	-156.85	-208.47	-338.85	-448.97	-594.89	-788.24	-1,044.42
UFCF	96.92	296.33	152.13	281.39	-48.32	472.27	442.54	586.37	776.94	1,029.46
WACC
PV UFCF						427.51	362.63	434.95	521.69	625.73
SUM PV UFCF										2,372.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.47
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,050.05
Terminal Value	12,397.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	7,535.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	9,907.86
Net Debt	-391.19
Equity Value	10,299.05
Shares Outstanding	48.91
Equity Value Per Share	210.58