Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASML Holding N.V. (ASME.DE)

621.4 €

-17.53 (-2.74%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 242.90 | 621.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	10,944	11,820	13,978.50	18,611	21,173.40	25,046.77	29,628.71	35,048.85	41,460.53	49,045.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,401.50	3,250.90	4,639.40	7,176.50	6,995.10	8,183.86	9,680.98	11,451.97	13,546.95	16,025.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,978.80	2,802.40	4,148.60	6,705.50	6,411.50	7,359.57	8,705.90	10,298.52	12,182.48	14,411.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	422.70	448.50	490.80	471	583.60	824.29	975.08	1,153.46	1,364.46	1,614.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	4,034.40	4,718.10	7,351.60	7,590.30	7,376	10,268.80	12,147.33	14,369.51	16,998.20	20,107.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,400.90	2,850.50	3,332.90	4,420.20	6,845.80	6,310.76	7,465.22	8,830.88	10,446.36	12,357.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,439.50	3,809.20	4,569.40	5,179.20	7,199.70	7,923.59	9,373.10	11,087.77	13,116.11	15,515.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	964	1,062.20	1,377.90	1,715.45	1,951.64	2,308.66	2,731	3,230.60	3,821.59	4,520.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-609.50	-885.90	-1,000.80	-940.30	-1,319.30	-1,578.30	-1,867.03	-2,208.57	-2,612.60	-3,090.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 621.4
Beta	1.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding	398.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	15.02
After-tax Cost of Debt	-1.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.267
Total Debt	3,514.20
Total Equity	247,379.34
Total Capital	250,893.54
Debt Weighting	1.40
Equity Weighting	98.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	10,944	11,820	13,978.50	18,611	21,173.40	25,046.77	29,628.71	35,048.85	41,460.53	49,045.13
EBITDA	3,401.50	3,250.90	4,639.40	7,176.50	6,995.10	8,183.86	9,680.98	11,451.97	13,546.95	16,025.16
EBIT	2,978.80	2,802.40	4,148.60	6,705.50	6,411.50	7,359.57	8,705.90	10,298.52	12,182.48	14,411.09
Tax Rate	11.97%	6.93%	11.52%	15.23%	15.02%	12.14%	12.14%	12.14%	12.14%	12.14%
EBIAT	2,622.20	2,608.16	3,670.49	5,684.10	5,448.30	6,466.38	7,649.31	9,048.64	10,703.96	12,662.09
Depreciation	422.70	448.50	490.80	471	583.60	824.29	975.08	1,153.46	1,364.46	1,614.07
Accounts Receivable	-	-449.60	-482.40	-1,087.30	-2,425.60	535.04	-1,154.46	-1,365.65	-1,615.48	-1,911.01
Inventories	-	-369.70	-760.20	-609.80	-2,020.50	-723.89	-1,449.51	-1,714.67	-2,028.35	-2,399.40
Accounts Payable	-	98.20	315.70	337.55	236.19	357.02	422.34	499.60	590.99	699.10
Capital Expenditure	-609.50	-885.90	-1,000.80	-940.30	-1,319.30	-1,578.30	-1,867.03	-2,208.57	-2,612.60	-3,090.54
UFCF	2,435.40	1,449.66	2,233.59	3,855.25	502.69	5,880.54	4,575.73	5,412.79	6,402.99	7,574.32
WACC
PV UFCF						5,389.06	3,842.84	4,165.90	4,516.12	4,895.78
SUM PV UFCF										22,809.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.12
Free cash flow (t + 1)	7,725.81
Terminal Value	108,508.51
Present Value of Terminal Value	70,136.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	92,945.85
Net Debt	-3,754.10
Equity Value	96,699.95
Shares Outstanding	398.10
Equity Value Per Share	242.90