Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASML Holding N.V. (ASME.DE)

621.4 €

-17.53 (-2.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 242.90 | 621.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 10,94411,82013,978.5018,61121,173.4025,046.7729,628.7135,048.8541,460.5349,045.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,401.503,250.904,639.407,176.506,995.108,183.869,680.9811,451.9713,546.9516,025.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,978.802,802.404,148.606,705.506,411.507,359.578,705.9010,298.5212,182.4814,411.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 422.70448.50490.80471583.60824.29975.081,153.461,364.461,614.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4,034.404,718.107,351.607,590.307,37610,268.8012,147.3314,369.5116,998.2020,107.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,400.902,850.503,332.904,420.206,845.806,310.767,465.228,830.8810,446.3612,357.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,439.503,809.204,569.405,179.207,199.707,923.599,373.1011,087.7713,116.1115,515.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9641,062.201,377.901,715.451,951.642,308.662,7313,230.603,821.594,520.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -609.50-885.90-1,000.80-940.30-1,319.30-1,578.30-1,867.03-2,208.57-2,612.60-3,090.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 621.4
Beta 1.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding 398.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.02
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.267
Total Debt 3,514.20
Total Equity 247,379.34
Total Capital 250,893.54
Debt Weighting 1.40
Equity Weighting 98.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 10,94411,82013,978.5018,61121,173.4025,046.7729,628.7135,048.8541,460.5349,045.13
EBITDA 3,401.503,250.904,639.407,176.506,995.108,183.869,680.9811,451.9713,546.9516,025.16
EBIT 2,978.802,802.404,148.606,705.506,411.507,359.578,705.9010,298.5212,182.4814,411.09
Tax Rate 11.97%6.93%11.52%15.23%15.02%12.14%12.14%12.14%12.14%12.14%
EBIAT 2,622.202,608.163,670.495,684.105,448.306,466.387,649.319,048.6410,703.9612,662.09
Depreciation 422.70448.50490.80471583.60824.29975.081,153.461,364.461,614.07
Accounts Receivable --449.60-482.40-1,087.30-2,425.60535.04-1,154.46-1,365.65-1,615.48-1,911.01
Inventories --369.70-760.20-609.80-2,020.50-723.89-1,449.51-1,714.67-2,028.35-2,399.40
Accounts Payable -98.20315.70337.55236.19357.02422.34499.60590.99699.10
Capital Expenditure -609.50-885.90-1,000.80-940.30-1,319.30-1,578.30-1,867.03-2,208.57-2,612.60-3,090.54
UFCF 2,435.401,449.662,233.593,855.25502.695,880.544,575.735,412.796,402.997,574.32
WACC
PV UFCF 5,389.063,842.844,165.904,516.124,895.78
SUM PV UFCF 22,809.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,725.81
Terminal Value 108,508.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 70,136.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 92,945.85
Net Debt -3,754.10
Equity Value 96,699.95
Shares Outstanding 398.10
Equity Value Per Share 242.90