Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

$650.31

-17.08 (-2.56%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 222.83 | 650.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	9,052.80	10,944	11,820	13,978.50	18,611	22,347.01	26,832.99	32,219.49	38,687.30	46,453.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,813.10	3,401.50	3,250.90	4,639.40	7,430.20	7,274.93	8,735.32	10,488.86	12,594.41	15,122.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,395.60	2,978.80	2,802.40	4,148.60	6,959.20	6,456.56	7,752.66	9,308.95	11,177.65	13,421.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	417.50	422.70	448.50	490.80	471	818.37	982.65	1,179.91	1,416.77	1,701.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	3,288.30	4,034.40	4,718.10	7,351.60	7,590.30	9,228.42	11,080.95	13,305.36	15,976.30	19,183.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,965.70	2,400.90	2,850.50	3,332.90	4,556.90	5,188.78	6,230.39	7,481.09	8,982.86	10,786.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,958.40	3,439.50	3,809.20	4,569.40	5,179.20	7,010.34	8,417.60	10,107.37	12,136.34	14,572.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	837.30	964	1,062.20	1,377.90	2,116.30	2,157.49	2,590.59	3,110.63	3,735.07	4,484.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-358	-609.50	-885.90	-1,000.80	-940.30	-1,306.44	-1,568.70	-1,883.60	-2,261.72	-2,715.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 650.31
Beta	1.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding	410.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	12.26
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.184
Total Debt	4,584.10
Total Equity	266,887.22
Total Capital	271,471.32
Debt Weighting	1.69
Equity Weighting	98.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	9,052.80	10,944	11,820	13,978.50	18,611	22,347.01	26,832.99	32,219.49	38,687.30	46,453.46
EBITDA	2,813.10	3,401.50	3,250.90	4,639.40	7,430.20	7,274.93	8,735.32	10,488.86	12,594.41	15,122.64
EBIT	2,395.60	2,978.80	2,802.40	4,148.60	6,959.20	6,456.56	7,752.66	9,308.95	11,177.65	13,421.47
Tax Rate	12.70%	11.97%	6.93%	11.52%	12.26%	11.08%	11.08%	11.08%	11.08%	11.08%
EBIAT	2,091.29	2,622.20	2,608.16	3,670.49	6,105.79	5,741.26	6,893.78	8,277.65	9,939.32	11,934.55
Depreciation	417.50	422.70	448.50	490.80	471	818.37	982.65	1,179.91	1,416.77	1,701.17
Accounts Receivable	-	-435.20	-449.60	-482.40	-1,224	-631.88	-1,041.61	-1,250.70	-1,501.77	-1,803.24
Inventories	-	-481.10	-369.70	-760.20	-609.80	-1,831.14	-1,407.27	-1,689.77	-2,028.97	-2,436.27
Accounts Payable	-	126.70	98.20	315.70	738.40	41.19	433.10	520.04	624.43	749.78
Capital Expenditure	-358	-609.50	-885.90	-1,000.80	-940.30	-1,306.44	-1,568.70	-1,883.60	-2,261.72	-2,715.74
UFCF	2,150.79	1,645.80	1,449.66	2,233.59	4,541.09	2,831.37	4,291.96	5,153.53	6,188.06	7,430.27
WACC
PV UFCF						2,596.40	3,609.14	3,974	4,375.75	4,818.10
SUM PV UFCF										19,373.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.05
Free cash flow (t + 1)	7,578.87
Terminal Value	107,501.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	69,708.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	89,082.10
Net Debt	-2,367.70
Equity Value	91,449.80
Shares Outstanding	410.40
Equity Value Per Share	222.83