Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

$650.31

-17.08 (-2.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 222.83 | 650.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 9,052.8010,94411,82013,978.5018,61122,347.0126,832.9932,219.4938,687.3046,453.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,813.103,401.503,250.904,639.407,430.207,274.938,735.3210,488.8612,594.4115,122.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,395.602,978.802,802.404,148.606,959.206,456.567,752.669,308.9511,177.6513,421.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 417.50422.70448.50490.80471818.37982.651,179.911,416.771,701.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3,288.304,034.404,718.107,351.607,590.309,228.4211,080.9513,305.3615,976.3019,183.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,965.702,400.902,850.503,332.904,556.905,188.786,230.397,481.098,982.8610,786.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,958.403,439.503,809.204,569.405,179.207,010.348,417.6010,107.3712,136.3414,572.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 837.309641,062.201,377.902,116.302,157.492,590.593,110.633,735.074,484.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -358-609.50-885.90-1,000.80-940.30-1,306.44-1,568.70-1,883.60-2,261.72-2,715.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 650.31
Beta 1.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding 410.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.26
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.184
Total Debt 4,584.10
Total Equity 266,887.22
Total Capital 271,471.32
Debt Weighting 1.69
Equity Weighting 98.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 9,052.8010,94411,82013,978.5018,61122,347.0126,832.9932,219.4938,687.3046,453.46
EBITDA 2,813.103,401.503,250.904,639.407,430.207,274.938,735.3210,488.8612,594.4115,122.64
EBIT 2,395.602,978.802,802.404,148.606,959.206,456.567,752.669,308.9511,177.6513,421.47
Tax Rate 12.70%11.97%6.93%11.52%12.26%11.08%11.08%11.08%11.08%11.08%
EBIAT 2,091.292,622.202,608.163,670.496,105.795,741.266,893.788,277.659,939.3211,934.55
Depreciation 417.50422.70448.50490.80471818.37982.651,179.911,416.771,701.17
Accounts Receivable --435.20-449.60-482.40-1,224-631.88-1,041.61-1,250.70-1,501.77-1,803.24
Inventories --481.10-369.70-760.20-609.80-1,831.14-1,407.27-1,689.77-2,028.97-2,436.27
Accounts Payable -126.7098.20315.70738.4041.19433.10520.04624.43749.78
Capital Expenditure -358-609.50-885.90-1,000.80-940.30-1,306.44-1,568.70-1,883.60-2,261.72-2,715.74
UFCF 2,150.791,645.801,449.662,233.594,541.092,831.374,291.965,153.536,188.067,430.27
WACC
PV UFCF 2,596.403,609.143,9744,375.754,818.10
SUM PV UFCF 19,373.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,578.87
Terminal Value 107,501.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 69,708.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 89,082.10
Net Debt -2,367.70
Equity Value 91,449.80
Shares Outstanding 410.40
Equity Value Per Share 222.83