Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

$ 803.92
-2.09 (-0.26%)
Stock DCF: 1,022.75 | 803.92 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 6,794.759,052.8010,94411,82013,978.5016,787.7920,161.6624,213.5929,079.8534,924.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,048.312,863.403,401.503,250.904,639.405,155.516,191.627,435.968,930.3810,725.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,691.382,445.902,978.802,802.404,148.604,449.325,343.516,417.407,707.129,256.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 356.93417.50422.70448.50490.80706.19848.111,018.561,223.261,469.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 4,056.873,288.304,034.404,718.107,351.607,5689,088.9610,915.5813,109.3115,743.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,220.781,965.702,400.902,850.503,332.903,679.124,418.525,306.526,372.987,653.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,780.882,958.403,439.503,809.204,569.405,706.176,852.958,230.209,884.2411,870.69
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 593.20837.309641,062.201,377.901,532.101,840.012,209.812,653.923,187.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -324.72-358-609.50-885.90-1,000.80-972.26-1,167.66-1,402.32-1,684.15-2,022.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 803.92
Beta 0.954
Diluted Shares Outstanding 419.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.52
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.013
Total Debt 4,678.20
Total Equity 336,922.87
Total Capital 341,601.07
Debt Weighting 1.37
Equity Weighting 98.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 6,794.759,052.8010,94411,82013,978.5016,787.7920,161.6624,213.5929,079.8534,924.09
EBITDA 2,048.312,863.403,401.503,250.904,639.405,155.516,191.627,435.968,930.3810,725.14
EBIT 1,691.382,445.902,978.802,802.404,148.604,449.325,343.516,417.407,707.129,256.04
Tax Rate 12.98%12.70%11.97%6.93%11.52%11.22%11.22%11.22%11.22%11.22%
EBIAT 1,471.892,135.202,622.202,608.163,670.493,950.054,743.905,697.296,842.288,217.39
Depreciation 356.93417.50422.70448.50490.80706.19848.111,018.561,223.261,469.10
Accounts Receivable --744.92-435.20-449.60-482.40-346.22-739.40-888-1,066.46-1,280.79
Inventories --177.52-481.10-369.70-760.20-1,136.77-1,146.78-1,377.25-1,654.04-1,986.46
Accounts Payable -244.10126.7098.20315.70154.20307.91369.79444.11533.36
Capital Expenditure -324.72-358-609.50-885.90-1,000.80-972.26-1,167.66-1,402.32-1,684.15-2,022.62
UFCF 1,504.101,516.361,645.801,449.662,233.592,355.192,846.083,418.064,1054,929.99
WACC
PV UFCF 2,223.142,535.872,874.753,258.913,694.42
SUM PV UFCF 14,587.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,176.49
Terminal Value 550,689.95
Present Value of Terminal Value 412,674.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 427,261.28
Net Debt -1,371.20
Equity Value 428,632.48
Shares Outstanding 419.10
Equity Value Per Share 1,022.75