Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ASR Nederland N.V. (ASRNL.AS)

39.97 €

+0.41 (+1.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 310.30 | 39.97 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,1195,6857,9867,5109,82411,254.2312,892.6814,769.6616,919.9119,383.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,3131,0511,5481,1601,5782,044.622,342.282,683.283,073.933,521.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,2891,0251,5051,1121,5261,987.072,276.362,607.772,987.423,422.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 242643485257.5465.9275.5286.5199.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 27,72429,11034,79836,62032,63949,985.0157,262.0965,598.6175,148.7986,089.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 564662723566588977.701,120.041,283.101,469.911,683.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19-6-10-15-387-105.35-120.68-138.25-158.38-181.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.97
Beta 1.134
Diluted Shares Outstanding 160.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.004
Total Debt 6,925
Total Equity 6,417.71
Total Capital 13,342.71
Debt Weighting 51.90
Equity Weighting 48.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,1195,6857,9867,5109,82411,254.2312,892.6814,769.6616,919.9119,383.20
EBITDA 1,3131,0511,5481,1601,5782,044.622,342.282,683.283,073.933,521.45
EBIT 1,2891,0251,5051,1121,5261,987.072,276.362,607.772,987.423,422.34
Tax Rate 22.70%32.52%24.63%26.54%26.05%26.49%26.49%26.49%26.49%26.49%
EBIAT 996.46691.651,134.35816.901,128.411,460.751,673.411,917.032,196.132,515.85
Depreciation 242643485257.5465.9275.5286.5199.11
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -9861-15722389.70142.34163.06186.80214
Capital Expenditure -19-6-10-15-387-105.35-120.68-138.25-158.38-181.44
UFCF 1,001.46809.651,228.35692.90815.411,802.651,760.982,017.362,311.062,647.51
WACC
PV UFCF 1,695.171,557.261,677.621,807.271,946.95
SUM PV UFCF 8,684.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,700.46
Terminal Value 62,222.60
Present Value of Terminal Value 45,757.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 54,442.05
Net Debt 4,619
Equity Value 49,823.05
Shares Outstanding 160.56
Equity Value Per Share 310.30