Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alterity Therapeutics Limited (ATHE)
$3.92
-0.23 (-5.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -8.24 | -12.31 | -13.34 | -15.23 | -12.72 | -2.96 | -1.60 | -0.86 | -0.47 | -0.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -8.27 | -12.34 | -13.46 | -15.31 | -12.74 | -2.97 | -1.60 | -0.87 | -0.47 | -0.25 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15.25 | 14.40 | 9.20 | 28.12 | 34.81 | 6.06 | 3.27 | 1.77 | 0.95 | 0.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.15 | 4.83 | 0.06 | 4.28 | 4.73 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.33 | 1.69 | 0.95 | 1.45 | 2.69 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.92 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.898 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 282.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.13% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.757 |
| Total Debt | 0.12 |
| Total Equity | 1,108.63 |
| Total Capital | 1,108.74 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.01 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.99 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -8.24 | -12.31 | -13.34 | -15.23 | -12.72 | -2.96 | -1.60 | -0.86 | -0.47 | -0.25 |
| EBIT | -8.27 | -12.34 | -13.46 | -15.31 | -12.74 | -2.97 | -1.60 | -0.87 | -0.47 | -0.25 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.55% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.11% |
| EBIAT | -8.27 | -12.34 | -13.46 | -15.31 | -12.81 | -2.98 | -1.61 | -0.87 | -0.47 | -0.25 |
| Depreciation | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.68 | 4.77 | -4.22 | -0.45 | 3.85 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.36 | -0.74 | 0.49 | 1.24 | -2.24 | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| UFCF | -8.31 | -13.63 | -9.33 | -18.96 | -12.09 | -1.37 | -1.41 | -0.76 | -0.41 | -0.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -10.84 | -20.43 | -12.09 | -1.27 | -1.21 | -0.61 | -0.30 | -0.15 | ||
| SUM PV UFCF | -3.55 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -0.23 |
| Terminal Value | -3.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2.70 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6.25 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -34.69 |
| Equity Value | 28.44 |
| Shares Outstanding | 282.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.10 |